New York Times  Feb 24  Comment 
The belief that milk makes us phlegmy is so common that our expectations can skew the results of studies.
TechCrunch  Feb 22  Comment 
 Getting product lock-in is key in the world of startups. Your app, service or products needs a hook that brings your users back time and time again. How about a startup that hangs its hook on daily milk deliveries? Supr Daily is that startup....
Agrimoney.com  Feb 22  Comment 
Prices at the GlobalDairyTrade auction hit their lowest level since November last year, as prices in New Zealand retreat into line with global market
USDA NASS  Feb 21  Comment 
January Milk Production up 2.7 Percent. Milk production in the 23 major States during January totaled 17.0 billion pounds, up 2.7 percent from January...
Forbes  Feb 20  Comment 
"Bread is not natural. Bread looks nothing like grain — just compare the two — in the same way that cheese is really not just old milk, and wine is not just spoiled grapes. "
The Economic Times  Feb 20  Comment 
In the past one year, the skimmed milk power prices have risen 90%, sugar 30%, white butter 40%, and milk by over 30%.
The Economic Times  Feb 20  Comment 
Umang Dairies on February 6 reported a net loss of Rs 0.18 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2016 against net profit of Rs 2.79 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.
NPR  Feb 17  Comment 
Because of unstable milk prices, small-dairy owners are also selling artisanal cheeses to help them stay afloat. The idea is catching on — in Iowa, the number of on-farm cheese-makers has doubled.
Forbes  Feb 16  Comment 
Shares of Dean Foods, the largest American dairy processor, are down more than 7% in early Thursday trading following a fourth quarter earnings report that missed profit expectations and came in light on outlook. The results are due in large part...
Agrimoney.com  Feb 16  Comment 
The New Zealand dairy giant says its milk collections will fall by less than previously thought, despite a drought in part of the country


"Milk" redirects here. For the actual futures contract on the CME please see milk futures.

In the US, dairy has a farm value of production that makes it second only to beef [1]. Despite increasing efficiency of production, domestic dairy demand has remained so high that US dairy farmers have found little incentive to export abroad. Significant export activity is limited to powdered milk and cheese to Mexico. But as seen in Chart 1, the US imports large quantities of dairy products, especially relatively expensive cheese products from the European Union.

See Beef Prices for more on US beef production and consumption, and the Dairy Products page for more on this industry.

The chart at left shows continuos front-month futures prices for Milk traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.


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Chart 1. Image from the USDA.
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Chart 2. Data from the USDA.

Dairy prices are historically relatively stable. However, even small fluctuations in price can have a big effect on related companies. The USDA projects that a slight increase in the number of milk-producing cows and increasing milk production efficiency will result in a continued drop in domestic dairy prices.

The USDA forecasted the 2007 all milk price 10 cents higher than the earlier $19.05 prediction to $19.15. In 2008, the all milk price forecast is increased from $18.00 to $18.80. The minimum price of raw milk is regulated in most parts of the country by the government at $9.90, but ever since Cooperatives Working Together (CWT), a dairy farmers group, put into place initiatives in 2002 to control milk supply by retiring herds, milk price have shot up and have remained around $14.


Who wins from lower domestic dairy prices?

Who loses from lower domestic dairy prices?

  • Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) is a major producer of soy products, often seen as competing with dairy products for demand and consumption. Lower dairy prices may worsen the price difference and discourage commercial consumers from turning to slightly pricier soy alternatives.
  • AspenBio Pharma (OTC:APNB) and other companies that derive significant profit from manufacturing dairy-related bovine hormones may feel the strain of lower dairy prices through the purchasing capacity and demand of bovine farmers for more yield-increasing drugs.

The New Export Market

A growing export market may counteract the effect of domestic dairy price drops. Chinese dairy consumption is growing at an annual 15%, and many other developing countries weigh in at about 10%--comparing such numbers to the US's annual domestic consumption growth of a paltry 0.4% has led many to believe that China could be the US's next big dairy surplus export market.

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