Helped by a reality-TV star, Republican lawmakers on Wednesday pitched
drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife refuge as one remedy for
chronic joblessness and a gaping US budget deficit.
To drill, or not to drill. That's the question that's been tossed around in Congress for the past 30 years. For Shell, Exxon, and the other Oil & Gas Majors, its a multi-billion dollar question. The United States Geological Survey has put the quantity of oil underneath the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) at around 10 billion barrels.[1] Given that most of the areas oil would be pumped out around 2020-2040, and given the worst case scenario for the oil majors, that oil would produce at least $400B in revenues.
The Economics of ANWR
There are three things that determine the value of drilling in ANWR: the quantity of oil it holds, the cost of extracting it, and the expected price of oil.
Who Benefits from Drilling in ANWR
All companies involved in the oil value chain would benefit. Oil has to be found, extracted, transported, refined, and transported again to where it can be sold.
The actual output from oil wells in ANWR would be enough to decrease prices by at most a dollar a barrel. That kind of price change isn't enough to cause large changes. However, one of the primary political arguments for drilling in ANWR is that it would increase America's energy independence, the same argument used to support renewable energy. Therefore, legislative support for renewable energy grants and subsidies would fall. Does that matter, though?
Bet you've never seen portfolio analytics like these.