This article describes Hybrid / Fuel Cell technology in automobiles. For a broader discussion of fuel saving technology and alternative energy in automobiles see Hybrid and Alternative Energy Technology. For Renewable Energy beyond the automobile industry, see Renewable Energy.
Hybrid cars run on a combination of electricity (usually generated using fuel cells, similar to batteries) and liquid fuels (natural gas or refined/blended alternatives). Low-emission and extremely fuel-efficient, hybrids are more affordable than most pure-electricity alternatives, and also one step closer to full acceptance by the mass market. One of the most popular current consumer hybrid models is Toyota's Prius; GM, Ford, Peugeot, and Nissan Motor (NSANY) are all introducing hybrid lines of their own.
The Chevy Volt is a plug-in flex-fuel car that can be configured to run on ethanol, gas, or biodiesel at a 50mpg blended equivalent.
The US government has been funding generous tax credits for buyers of select hybrid vehicles (dollar amount ranges from US$400 to 3,400, depending on the model) to encourage both hybrid adoption and production. However, the tax credits don't last forever, and they won't be distributed evenly across the industry, either. After an automaker sells 60,000 tax-credit-eligible hybrid cars, the amount of tax credit per buyer gradually drops to 0% of the original amount over a period of five years. [1] This may help automakers who were slow on the hybrid uptake to compete with those who jumped the gun on hybrid technology, but the artificial equalizing effect may make investing in hybrid automakers more difficult. A safer bet to determine winners and losers: fuel cell/hydrogen manufacturers.
In July 2008, the National Research Council published a study stating that, though fuel cell vehicles might make up 35 million of America's cars by 2030, the industry would need $200 billion in investment capital for infrastructure, technology development, and manufacturing. Platinum would make up a large part of these costs, as the cost of the metal makes up 57% of a fuel cell's costs.[1]
[edit] Who wins from increased hybrid adoption?
- UQM Technologies (UQM) is a major manufacturer of hybrid vehicle electrics, including motor and power sytems. Its focus on hybrid auto parts mean that its success will probably have little to do with the coming automaker battles. (GE's Ecomagination division may also benefit from increased adoption of its Jenbacher engine, which generates electricity from biofuels.
- Fuel Systems Solutions (FSYS) and Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide (QTWW) make gaseous fuels integrators used in cleaner-fueled vehicles and hydrogen storage systems, respectively--and are also largely immune to automaker wars.
- Praxair (PX), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), and other suppliers of industrial (hydrogen) gases will also benefit from increased demand for hydrogen. APD is the largest producer of hydrogen gas in the world.
- OM Group (OMG), Ultralife Batteries (ULBI), China BAK Battery (CBAK), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), Electro Energy (EEEI), and other nickel/lithium battery manufacturers will find their products in higher demand with a spike in hybrid car growth.
- Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), Hydrogenics (HYGS), and Medis produce fuel cells, for which hybrids could provide a stepping stone to feasibility.
- Altair Nanotechnologies (ALTI), Active Power (ACPW), and Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) all make alternatives to traditional batteries/fuel cells (nontech batteries, flywheel power storage, ultracapacitors).
- Air Products and Chemicals (APD) is the largest producer of industrial hydrogen gas in the world, and will benefit if hybrid cars switch to hydrogen-based fuel.
[edit] Who loses?
- Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Oil States International (OIS), and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are just a few examples of the big natural gas companies that may suffer from decreased automotive gasoline consumption. Companies at every level of the natural gas supply chain will feel the strain from a sudden decrease in natural gas demand.
- Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) and other heavily ethanol-based producers may yet have a part to play in the hybrid vehicle industry as some hybrids may also become flex-fuel vehicles capable of running on both low- and high-ethanol-content blends. However, there is no denying that hybrid vehicle dominance would produce much less ethanol demand than a purely ethanol/flex-fuel vehicle dominance.
- ADM, Deere & Company (DE), and other agricultural companies that would have benefited dramatically from a sky-high spike in ethanol demand may feel a similar slack in demand for their products as ethanol demand slows, and with it, the need for corn and other agricultural biomass.
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