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The U.S. housing market includes the construction, sale, and resale, of all residential properties across the country. Even though it's only focused on housing, conditions in the housing market are indicative of the state of the economy as a whole. Homes are durable goods, meaning that new home construction and sales are often highly correlated with economic cycles; people tend to buy new homes only when they are confident that they'll have enough income to pay for it, so economic downturns can depress the housing market considerably. In addition to the buildings themselves, homes require appliances, furniture, utility services, and any number of other secondary goods and services. When a new home is built and purchased, the financial impact of that sale continues on indefinitely, every time the owner buys a lightbulb or pays the electricity bill. As such, conditions in the housing market are monitored closely, given their widespread implications. As of March 2008, the housing market is somewhat shaky, due largely to the collapse of the subprime lending industry. The number of new homes sold in 2007 is projected to fall 19% from 2006 levels, according to the National Association of Realtors; existing home sales aren't faring well either, with a projected 6.8% drop over 2006 sales figures.[1] Home Purchases climbed 2.9% to an annual rate of 5.03 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported. Existing home prices continued their decline, with the average home price falling from $213,500 in February 2007 to $195,900, an 8.2% drop and the largest monthly decline since 1968. However, nearly half of metropolitan areas reported price increases, with healthy gains in Oklahoma City and Trenton, N.J. The relationship between home prices, interest rates and income has improved to the point where buyers are more serious about making offers. [2] Statistics by area In the Northeast, existing home sales jumped 11.3% to an annual pace of 890,000 in February. However, that figure is 26.4% below that of February 2007. The median home price in the region went up 0.4% to $264,800. In the Midwest, existing home sales rose 2.5% in February to a level of 1.24 million, and that is 19.5% below a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $143,900, which is 7.1% lower than February 2007. In the South, existing home sales increased 2.1% to an annual rate of 1.99 million in February, 22% below February 2007. The median price in the South was $163,400, down 8.6% from a year ago. In the West, existing home fell 1.1% to an annual rate of 920,000 in February, 29.2% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $290,400, down 13.4 percent from February 2007. Overall housing inventory fell 3% to 4.03 million homes available, which represents a 9.6-month supply, down from 10.2-month supply in January.
[edit] Companies involved in the housing marketConstruction and home improvement
Appliances, furniture, and accessories
Mortgage companies and other financial institutions Deteriorating conditions in the housing market can substantially impact mortgage companies such as lenders. If demand for residential real estate falls, prices are likely to fall as well. As such, any homes that a lender repossesses to cover mortgage defaults is worth less, possibly even less than the company lent in the first place. Also, extremely poor conditions in the housing market might lead to a decrease in interest rates, which would make each new loan less profitable.
Other companies with exposure to the residential real estate market
[edit] What causes housing booms and slumps?The housing market is very closely related with prevailing economic conditions. There isn't a perfectly clear cause-and-effect relationship between the two; conditions in one can impact the other, and vice versa. In general, the housing market reflects the state of the economy as a whole. There are times when the economy seems to be humming right along, but the demand for residential real estate falls nonetheless. In cases such as these, the slump is often a sign of economic weakness that just hasn't manifested itself in other areas of the economy. While the relationship between the housing market and the entire economy is somewhat complicated, there are some observable factors that can impact the demand for residential real estate. Some this housing cycle is caused by overbuilding. Developers saw excessively low rates for quite a while and used that to theorize that everyone can now get into a home. Together with lenders the thought was that if potential buyers can afford a $100K home at 6% then they can afford the same home for $200K at 3%. When this market dried up and it came time for rates to go back to normal levels, enter the bursting bubble. Homebuilders got caught with inventory, mortgage lenders have customers who can't afford the new rates, and homeowners whoa re in over their head are looking for a place to stay. The effect is far reaching and long term. [edit] U.S. Economic CyclesBusiness cycles have a number of significant repercussions for the economy. The most notable of these is the fact that household disposable income rises during booms and falls during recessions. The average American's purchasing power, therefore, rises and falls in tune with these economic cycles. When disposable incomes decrease, spending decreases overall, but some goods and services are more sensitive to these changes than others. Food and gasoline are two goods that are relatively less affected by these cycles; people still need to eat and get around, even during hard times. Durable goods, or larger purchases that are generally meant to last a while, are very hard hit by recessions, however. For example, if a person's income is halved, their food consumption will probably not change that much; they will be more likely, however, to put off buying a new washing machine, car, or house. Since these goods are "durable", the ones they already have will probably last until their finances improve. Because the demand for durable goods decreases during recessions, and a house is about as durable as a good gets, the residential real estate market is extremely sensitive to economic cycles. A recession can lead to lower demand for new home construction, appliances, furniture, and even cars.  [edit] Interest RatesInterest rates are another factor that can dramatically impact the housing market and new home construction. When interest rates either rise or fall, the economy as a whole is affected. The housing market, however, is particularly sensitive to these changes for a number of reasons. [edit] Cost of BorrowingAs interest rates increase, it becomes more expensive to obtain a mortgage on a home. Given mortgages' generally long terms (usually 15 or 30 years), even small changes in interest rates can significantly impact monthly payments and the total cost of buying a new home. Higher interest rates are likely to cause a decrease in demand for housing due to these rising costs. Conversely, lower interest rates can make borrowing money cheaper and stimulate demand in the housing market. [edit] Subprime mortgagesIncreasing interest rates can also harm preexisting mortgages and result in higher foreclosure rates, increasing the supply of homes on the market just as it becomes more expensive to buy them. The reason for this is the adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM. ARMs are different from fixed-rate mortgages in that the interest rate is variable, changing with current interest rates throughout the term of the mortgage. These ARMs became very popular in the early- to mid-2000s, when low introductory, or "teaser", rates caused many people to take out ARMs and buy houses. After the introductory period, however, the rates on these ARMs were reset to reflect current interest rates, resulting in much higher monthly payments. As a large percentage of these ARMs were made to subprime borrowers, many of whom could not afford the higher monthly payments, increasing numbers of homes began being repossessed. As many ARMs are still in their introductory periods, future waves of rate resets could further increase foreclosure rates. Interest rate increases could further exacerbate the problem, causing even more consumers to default on their mortgages. This increased number of foreclosures could lead to rising inventories of homes for sale, which would, in turn, depress real estate prices and decrease demand for construction. [edit] References |
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