Business is still booming in the biotech sector…Over the past year, we’ve seen three huge buyouts occur in the Big Pharma/biotech area…
It started in January, with the news that Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) would shell out $68 billion to buy Wyeth (NYSE: WYE).
And things really got rolling this week, with the news that Merck (NYSE: MRK) will acquire Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) for $48 billion and that Roche and Genentech (NYSE: DNA) have finally concluded protracted negotiations that will see Roche buy the biotech superpower for $47 billion.
Total value of done deals: $163 billion. And in a market where access to capital has supposedly dried up.
The question is: Could these Big Pharma mergers signal a shift in sentiment and a bottom for the broader stock market?
If you’re looking for a simple, one-word answer… no.
But if you don’t take your investment advice from such in-depth, hard-hitting features as the “Lightning Round,” I invite you to keep reading…
The Credit Is There… But Only For The Right Deal
There’s no doubt that it’s tough to get credit these days. But as the merger deals above show, capital is clearly available for the right deals.
For example, in order to finance its deal with Genentech, Roche issued nearly $33 billion in notes. In addition, Pfizer received over $22 billion in loan commitments from various banks to complete its transaction. And similarly, J.P. Morgan (NYSE: JPM) slapped down $8.5 billion so Merck could fund its deal with Schering-Plough.
Again, this has occurred during one of the most fear and panic-ridden periods in stock market history. And it’s come despite frequent comparisons of the Depression Era. Listen to the media too much and you’d expect to see the world in a grainy, brown hue every time you look out the window.
Don’t get me wrong here: I’m keenly aware that the economy is in bad shape. No one has ever accused me of being a Polyanna. But my point is that it’s not necessarily all doom-and-gloom (as some would like you to believe).
These healthcare/biotech mergers indicate the beginning of a thaw in credit markets and hopefully the start of a healing process for the markets. Notice that I’m not calling it a “bottoming process” because as I said last week, I do believe we’ll see new stock market lows.
But as more deals get done, investor and lender confidence will slowly return to the market. And I do think more acquisitions are imminent - particularly within the biotech sector…
The Biotech Sector - A Wave of Consolidation
The biotech sector is likely in store for a wave of consolidation. While the above-mentioned Big Pharma companies have boosted their pipelines and created massive biopharma companies with their acquisitions, there are still many pharmaceutical companies that desperately need to fill their pipelines.
And that bodes well for biotech - particularly when you consider that the largest biotech company after Genentech is Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN), which boasts a market cap of $48 billion.
After that, Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD), which just announced a $1.4 billion takeover of CV Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CVTX), is next at $40 billion. Then the market thins considerably, with only three companies that have market caps over $10 billion and 11 companies with market caps of $1 billion or more.
For example, Merck could buy Biogen (Nasdaq: BIIB) and Genzyme (Nasdaq: GENZ) for less than it cost the firm to buy Schering-Plough.
The point is: Even though the biotech sector has outperformed the S&P 500 during the bear market, many biotech stocks have become cheap.
In fact, pharmaceutical companies wouldn’t even need to raise capital to buy a BioMarin (Nasdaq: BMRN), or Xcelerated Profits Report portfolio member Medivation (Nasdaq: MDVN) and many others like them.