RECENT NEWS
The Hindu Business Line  Apr 23  Comment 
National Fertilizers Limited has informed the exchanges that its Vijaipur-I urea Plant has resumed production from April 16. The plant was shut down from March 4 for annual turn, the company...
The Hindu Business Line  Apr 22  Comment 
The Union Ministry Commerce is in talks with the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers to launch a national mission for controlling corrosion in metals before end of April. The idea is that compan...
Agrimoney.com  Apr 20  Comment 
The Norwegian fertilizer giant slashes the book value of its stake in the loss-making Lifeco plant
The Economic Times  Apr 17  Comment 
Deepak Fertilisers has sold 18.45 per cent stake in Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers Ltd for nearly Rs 192 crore over two days this week.
Southeast Farm Press  Apr 14  Comment 
Guy Collins & Keith Edmisten, NC State Due to the widespread use of Admire Pro in-furrow for thrips control, there has been a noticeable and increasing interest in applying starter fertilizers in-furrow as well. read more
Agrimoney.com  Apr 13  Comment 
Acron, unveiling a halving in earnings, flags forecasts that industry nitrogen and phosphate markets will improve, but potash demand growth will slow
The Hindu Business Line  Apr 13  Comment 
Deepak Fertilisers, which was waging a pitched battle to take over the Vijay Mallya-owned Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers, has started reducing its stake in the company. On Monday,...
The Times of India  Apr 13  Comment 
Government has shortlisted about a dozen PSUs including IOC, National Fertilizers, MMTC, Hindustan Copper and ITDC for stake sale to achieve the current fiscal's disinvestment target of Rs 41,000 crore.
Reuters  Apr 8  Comment 
A stock market debut for Austrian plastics and fertilizer maker Borealis [BESGR.UL] is still on the table but no concrete talks have taken place yet, Chief Executive Mark Garrett...
Southeast Farm Press  Apr 8  Comment 
Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois Input manufacturers likely prefer to see more corn acres planted than soybean acres because farmer costs are higher for corn. Having more corn acres increases the chances of higher gross revenues...




 
TOP CONTRIBUTORS

Fertilizer companies convert phosphorus, nitrogen, and potassium into chemicals that may be used to help plants grow. In the US, corn crops use approximately 45% of the total available fertilizer. This is more than the combined 29% that wheat, soybeans, oilseeds, fruit and vegetables use. The remaining 26% is used by other crops and uses such as pesticides.

When there is a gap between crop supply and crop demand there is often an opportunity for a farmer to sell more product to meet demand. Profit seeking farmers will buy fertilizer when is it financially prudent to do so. By

Three main factors influence US fertilizer companies:

  • Crop prices. Crop supply is determined by the weather and the skill of farmers. Crop demand is determined by how much food people want (especially meat, which is crop intensive), and whether gas prices are high enough to justify using Biofuels.
  • The value of the US dollar. International markets account for much of the growth of fertilizer companies. If the dollar gets stronger, US-made fertilizer becomes more expensive and less sought after.
  • Input costs. Potash and phosphate fertilizers are made by mixing minerals in vats of acid. Nitrogen fertilizer is made by turning natural gas into ammonia and often mixing it with urea (yes, the main ingredient in urine). When mining, natural gas, and acid are cheap, fertilizer companies make more money.

From 2007 to the summer of 2008, fertilizer companies saw triple digit returns due to skyrocketing oil prices, the growth of emerging markets, and a severe worldwide food shortage. World-wide recession starting in Fall 2008 completely reversed those gains, as the demand for ethanol and other biofuels collapsed even more than oil demand.

Despite the economic downturn, the OECD agricultural outlook for 2009-2018 predicts that inflation adjusted average crop prices will rebound to exceed 2008 highs. [1] Excellent anticipated weather in 2009 combined with the global down-turn does have the potential to keep food prices down in the short-run.[2], [3]

In the 3-5 year picture, the development of more advanced genetic engineering and alternative energy will affect fertilizer companies. Monsanto has already developed SmartStax (tm) seeds which require 70% less pesticide and increase whole-farm yields by a substantial 5-10%.[4]

Upstream

Downstream

Bunge (BG)

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Agrium (AGU)

Cargill

Relative Performance

Fertilizer production has significantly outpaced the Federal Reserves material production benchmark since 1998.

Image:FIND_fednumbers.gif

Notice that agricultural chemicals (like Monsanto's Round-Up) have seen production decreases, dipping below the material index in 2008. This is because the international patent on Round-Up (Monsanto's phosphate based pesticide) expired, spurring cheap international production and decreasing the incentive to produce the product domestically.

Despite a generally declining US economy over the last decade, fertilizer companies generated massive excess returns. The following graph shows that the average fertilizer company outperformed the S&P 500 by over 750% over a 10 year period.

Image:FIND_decadereturns.gif‎

To put these numbers in perspective, that means the average fertilizer company has been growing 22.4% each year, giving them similar growth rates to celebrated tech stocks, Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL).

Segments

Different types of fertilizer

The three types of fertilizer are commonly called N, P, and K, which are the element symbols for Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium. Large fertilizer companies tend to focus on one or two types of fertilizer due to Economies of scale.

Nitrogen fertilizers (N) include ammonia, urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulfate, and nitrogen solutions. Nitrogen fertilizers are made by processing natural gas with heated chemicals, and therefore have prices that tend to move with natural gas. N-fertilizers are used to improve plants' ability to turn sunlight into nutrients. China, India, the USA, Russia and Canada are the world's top 5 nitrogen producers. [5]

Phosphorus fertilizers (P) include triple superphosphate and monammonium phosphate (phosphate + ammonia). Phosphorus is mined from volcanic and oceanic rock deposits. It is mixed with sulfuric acid to make fertilizer. The US, China, India, Russia and Brazil have the largest phosphorus deposits. [5]

Potassium fertilizers (K) are simply called "Potash", which is the accepted slang for Potassium Oxide. Potash needs to be mined from ore deposits, which are most common in Canada, Russia, Belarus, Germany and the United States.[5]

Nitrogen

Phosphates

Potash

Trends and Forces

Growth in developing economies helps fertilizer companies

Industrialization gives people a taste for meat, which requires 12-16 times the agricultural output per calorie than grain. [6] For example, the average Chinese citizen now eats twice as much meat as he/she did in 1990. Net imports of vegetable oil, meat, sugar and wheat in developing nations are up 1300% over the last 40 years, and are expected to grow 345% by 2030.[7][8] The FAO reports that people are generally eating more in the developing world, where daily calorie consumption is expected to rise 10-20% per-capita by 2015. [8]

As emerging markets build infrastructure and factories, they will eat more and drive up the price of oil. This will make biofuels a relatively more attractive energy source. The USDA estimates that 1 gallon of ethanol requires 20+ pounds of corn so it is easy to see how fertilizer companies will benefit from enhanced biofuel production. [9]

Increased use of corn/soy based biofuels helps fertilizer companies

Biofuels section Ethanol in the U.S. is produced from corn, one of the most fertilizer and nitrogen intensive crops. From 2007-2008, corn prices jumped 125% due to heightened demand for biofuels, food, and livestock feed.[10]

The demand for Ethanol and biofuels peaked in 2008 along with gas prices, only to falter in 2009. People only consume biofuels, it seems, when gas prices are extremely high. For instance, the Midwest has seen a 52% drop in ethanol consumption, with only a 3% drop in gasoline consumption. Ethanol is about 15-20% less efficient than gasoline, and studies have shown it needs to be about 40 cents cheaper per gallon to compete. [11]

There is also evidence that ethanol is extremely fuel inefficient, requiring 70% more energy to produce than it actually yields. Soy-based fuel is somewhat more promising Soy biodiesel is significantly more powerful than ethanol, yielding 120,000 BTUs per gallon versus 80,000 BTUs. [12] [13] Bunge (BG)

New research done at UC Merced and published in the journal Science in May 2009 presents evidence that crops yield 81% more energy per unit area of land when it is burned to make electricity to power cars than when it is refined into ethanol.[14] Furthermore, greenhouse gas emissions from this "bioelectricity" are 100% lower per unit area of land than cellulosic ethanol.[15]

In July, 2009, Exxon Mobil (XOM) entered a five-year, $600 million partnership with Synthetic Genomics Incorporated, to develop algae-based biofuels.[16]

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