Brazil is one of the real economic success stories of the last six years. In 2003, it had just elected a socialist president and appeared close to default – its membership in the BRIC group was highly tentative. The commodity boom of 2004-2008 was highly beneficial to Brazil, the country’s government worked hard to bring down the budget deficit, while its central bank kept interest rates far above the rate of inflation. Consequently, when the commodity bubble burst in mid-2008, the central bank was able to keep domestic demand growing by relaxing its interest rate policy.
Brazil’s economy – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – advanced at a 5.3% annual clip in 2008. The forecasting panel of The Economist only expects Brazil to grow at a 1.6% pace this year, but that’s much better than most places. Its inflation rate is 6% – too high, but at least it avoids deflation.
Brazil’s short-term interest rates remain suitably restrictive at 12.5%, and its stock market is down only 4% this year, which is more than investors can say for Wall Street.
Brazil remains a successful growth story, albeit at a moderate rate. What’s more, its oil company, Petroleo Brasileiro SA (Petrobras) (ADR: PBR), has found offshore reserves of oil that from 2012 (when production begins) onward seems likely to make Brazil one of the world’s premier oil exporters.
Whenever someone assembles a list of the world’s great growth economies – no matter what parameters are used – Brazil is virtually certain to be part of it.