Predictions of renewable energy adoption in the U.S. over the next 50 years are likely overstated. For example, a June 2009 report by the National Research Council that claims it is possible for the U.S. to generate 10% of its electricity from renewables by 2020 does not explain that this goal would require billions of dollars in infrastructure spending and some tricky political maneuvering. In another example, a claim by Greenpeace and two solar industry groups that 25% of U.S. electricity could come from solar by 2050 is contingent on $51 billion being spent on new solar thermal plants every year until 2030, versus the $2.8 billion spent on solar thermal in 2008.

And it’s back to bickering for Congress, as Democrats begin drafting a bill meant to regulate greenhouse gases. A positive step towards saving the world, right? Especially if, as the Natural Resources Defense Council alleges, up to 2 million jobs would be created within the first few years due to companies employing outside workers to make their buildings more energy efficient.

Wrong if you’re asking opponents though, who argue that implementing such a cap would cost the country jobs amid the worst recession in decades: a figure estimated from the Energy Information Administration’s 100,000 to American Council for Capital Formation’s approximated millions.

And of course both sides have their own facts, experts and predictions to “back up” what they’re saying. Here are the facts and hopes that we do know though… According to CNN, “Under a cap-and-trade, the government would auction permits each year to emit carbon dioxide. Industry could then trade those permits among themselves or pay to invest in cleaner technology. Each year the number of permits auctioned declines, resulting in cleaner air and more expensive permits, giving companies the financial incentive to invest in cleaner technology.”

One way or the other, the subject is worth looking into, since if it passes - and with a Democrat-controlled Congress deciding on a Democrat favorite subject, it likely will - major changes are in store for businesses, especially those in energy intensive industries such as chemicals, steel making, the auto industry and electronics

Prices for commodities like coal, oil, and natural gas have decreased tremendously since the end of the summer. Oil has fallen from a high of $150 in early summer to below $60, coking coal producers BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are expecting to cut contract prices by 33% by April 2009, and NYMEX natural gas futures have fallen from over $13 in July to roughly $7 in late November. As prices for traditional power plant fuels fall, the relative cost of renewable energy increases, making solar, wind, and biofuels like ethanol much less attractive.