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Guidelines
- Daily angles should highlight the best of Wikinvest - we should have solid articles on companies related to your angle.
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Suggestions
Indian markets outlook
The bear phase for Indian markets has lasted for over 13 months and already consolidation phase looks to have started. New highs are possible only in next 36-42 months time period. So investing from 3-4 year perspective has a very good chance of earning.
Positives for India:-
- Nuke Deal is signed and many countries like Russia, Kazakhstan and France are already eager to do business with India in that field. Nuclear power capcaity 2100MW now can triple in 1 year time to 6000MW with no addition in capacity.
- India GDP grew at 5.3% in Q3, below many estimates. But in a quarter where corporate profits declined 33%, growth above 5% is appreciable.
- Fiscal Deficit is the concern on economic front – Debt waiver, 5th pay commission have weighed on the exchequer and after that also Indian Government has given away 3 stimulus packages. It is worth noting that the Debt Waiver and 5th pay commission were given away even before USA and other countries started stimulating their economies.
- Elections are due in April 2009 and any new government will try to cut the Fiscal Deficit. New measures can be partial or full disinvestment of PSUs and residual stake sales in companies like Maruti, Tata Comm. After introduction of Service Tax in India, more and more services are being added to the Service Tax net, attracting more revenue for the Government.
- Sensex/Nifty trade around 11 times forward P/E and India growing more than 6% warrants more investments as it is anyway 2nd fastest growing economy. The stimulus packages so far will have their effects in 6-8 months time and any new government is expected to continue the reform process. Infrastructure here has tremendous scope for growth and new initiatives are needed.
- CMIE predicts net profits of Indian companies to rise by 74.4% in FY10. The PAT margin will also improve to 7.7% from 4.8% in FY 09 and expects petroleum products companies returning into profits in the March 2009 quarter.
What about the new bottom?
That is the question everybody is asking before investing in India. In my view that really doesn’t matter. Sensex is currently placed around 8300 levels. If one thinks it can reach 18000-19000 in 2-3 year period to say the least, even if it is to come near 5000, the risk-reward is still very favourable for the buyer. It is an opportunity provided by nature in my view and should be grabbed by those who can wait patiently. Many stocks like Hero Honda, Hind Unilever and Colgate are already trading near yearly or all time highs and can move fast when markets stabilize.
As an investor, one should not get tired of buying. Peter Lynch once said, "When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure, they can go lower. I've bought stocks at $12 that went to $2, but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom." Bear market is the best time to build a portfolio. Those who miss out on such opportunities, have to beg for corrections so that they can get a chance to buy, but they hardly get any offerings. The time is not too far for the rally. Better to be a beneficiary of a bull-run than a beggar of a bull-run.
Which sectors and stocks can be looked at?
Auto, FMCG, Power, Technology can be good for investment. Maruti, Tata Motors, M&M, Hind Unilever, Colgate, NTPC, PowerGrid, Infosys, TCS can be stocks from these sectors. ABB, ACC, BHEL, CAIRN, Reliance, RPL, BEL, Tata Steel are a few stocks from other sectors that can outperform in my view. --Tanmaypurohit 00:35, March 7, 2009 (PST)
Gold
Gold's price has been going up (maybe b/c of fears of a global economic slowdown). Some of the players include:
- Randgold Resources (GOLD), up about 130% over 12 mths
- Barrick Gold (ABX), up about 80%
- Iamgold (IAG) and Gold Fields (GFI) have been flat/down (not sure why)
Unfortunately, only the ABX article has any content as of now.
Amazon
It would be cool if you guys featured Amazon. Their recent launch of the beta DRM-free music download site could give iTunes a run for their money.
Global Warming, China
Guys,
Global warming and China are both hot topics. Below is a daily angle that I think would be pretty interesting.
Global Warming is real and quite investable these days, just ask Willie Walsh, the CEO of British Airways. According to Walsh, pressure from the British public to cut the airline's emissions was a major factor in its decision to purchase 24 Boeing 787s and 12 Airbus A380s for $8.2B. The 787 Dreamliner is made primarily of ultra light composite materials and is more fuel-efficient than the 747 model that it will replace. It should also produce 30% less in emissions per seat. Thus far, airlines have demonstrated a strong appetite for the 787. With nearly 700 orders placed as of July, the 787 is the best selling wide body aircraft in Boeing's history. In the face of rising oil prices and a lack of confidence in Airbus' ability to solve its production problems, it is likely that Boeing will continue to fly high.
<nowwiki>Bill</nowiki>
Monsanto
Their stock price has gone up by 70% in recent months, largely due to rising grain prices.
The Wall Street Jounal reports that Corn and Wheat Prices are up by more than 70% in parts of the US. Increased demand for ethanol, driven by global warming concerns and encouraged by government subsidies, is partly to blame, but that is by no means the full story. The rapid economic development of developing countries, particularly China also plays a large part. The growing middle class in these countries can afford to consume greater quantities of milk and beef, both of which are grain intensive products; a cow must consume more than 6 lbs of grain for each pound of edible beef. Economists speculate that this trend could continue for another decade, keeping grain prices elevated. While there will definitely be losers, like Wendy's and Kraft, higher grain prices have already given the stocks of companies like Monsanto, maker of genetically enhanced seeds and pesticides, a huge boost.
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