ALL » Topics » Actual claims incurred may exceed current reserves established for claims

These excerpts taken from the ALL 10-K filed Feb 27, 2008.

Actual claims incurred may exceed current reserves established for claims

        Recorded claim reserves in the Property-Liability business are based on our best estimates of losses, both reported and incurred but not reported ("IBNR"), after considering known facts and interpretations of circumstances. Internal factors are considered including our experience with similar cases, actual claims paid, historical trends involving claim payment patterns, pending levels of unpaid claims, loss management programs, product mix, and contractual terms. External factors are also considered which include but are not limited to law changes, court decisions, changes to regulatory requirements and economic conditions. Because reserves are estimates of the unpaid portion of losses that have occurred, including IBNR losses, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded reserves and such variance may adversely affect our operating results and financial condition.

Predicting claim expense relating to asbestos, environmental, and other discontinued lines is inherently uncertain

        The process of estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines liabilities is complicated by complex legal issues concerning, among other things, the interpretation of various insurance policy provisions and whether those losses are, or were ever intended to be, covered; and whether losses could be recoverable through retrospectively determined premium, reinsurance or other contractual agreements. Asbestos-related bankruptcies and other asbestos litigations are complex, lengthy proceedings that involve substantial uncertainty for insurers. While we believe that improved actuarial techniques and databases have assisted in estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines net loss reserves, these refinements may subsequently prove to be inadequate indicators of the extent of probable loss. Consequently, ultimate net losses from these discontinued lines could materially exceed established loss reserves and expected recoveries and have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, operating results and financial position.

Actual claims incurred may exceed current reserves established for claims




        Recorded claim reserves in the Property-Liability business are based on our best estimates of losses, both reported and incurred but not reported ("IBNR"), after
considering known facts and interpretations of circumstances. Internal factors are considered including our experience with similar cases, actual claims paid, historical trends involving claim payment
patterns, pending levels of unpaid claims, loss management programs, product mix, and contractual terms. External factors are also considered which include but are not limited to law changes, court
decisions, changes to regulatory requirements and economic conditions. Because reserves are estimates of the unpaid portion of losses that have occurred, including IBNR losses, the establishment of
appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is
an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded reserves and such variance may adversely affect our operating results and financial
condition.



Predicting claim expense relating to asbestos, environmental, and other discontinued lines is inherently uncertain



        The process of estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines liabilities is complicated by complex legal issues concerning, among other things,
the interpretation of various insurance policy provisions and whether those losses are, or were ever intended to be, covered; and whether losses could be recoverable through retrospectively determined
premium, reinsurance or other contractual agreements. Asbestos-related bankruptcies and other asbestos litigations are complex, lengthy proceedings that involve substantial uncertainty for insurers.
While we believe that improved actuarial techniques and databases have assisted in estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines net loss reserves, these refinements may subsequently
prove to be inadequate indicators of the extent of probable loss. Consequently, ultimate net losses from these discontinued lines could materially exceed established loss reserves and expected
recoveries and have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, operating results and financial position.



This excerpt taken from the ALL 10-K filed Feb 22, 2007.

Actual claims incurred may exceed current reserves established for claims

        Recorded claim reserves in the Property-Liability business are based on our best estimates of losses, both reported and incurred but not reported ("IBNR"), after considering known facts and interpretations of circumstances. Internal factors are considered including our experience with similar cases, actual claims paid, historical trends involving claim payment patterns, pending levels of unpaid claims, loss management programs, product mix, and contractual terms. External factors are also considered which include but are not limited to law changes, court decisions, changes to regulatory requirements and economic conditions. Because reserves are estimates of the unpaid portion of losses that have occurred, including IBNR losses, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded reserves and such variance may adversely affect our operating results and financial condition.

Predicting claim expense relating to asbestos and other environmental and discontinued lines is inherently uncertain

        The process of estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines liabilities is complicated by complex legal issues concerning, among other things, the interpretation of various insurance policy provisions and whether those losses are, or were ever intended to be, covered; and

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whether losses could be recoverable through retrospectively determined premium, reinsurance or other contractual agreements. Asbestos-related bankruptcies and other asbestos litigations are complex, lengthy proceedings that involve substantial uncertainty for insurers. While we believe that improved actuarial techniques and databases have assisted in estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines net loss reserves, these refinements may subsequently prove to be inadequate indicators of the extent of probable loss. Consequently, ultimate net losses from these discontinued lines could materially exceed established loss reserves and expected recoveries and have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, operating results and financial position.

This excerpt taken from the ALL 10-K filed Feb 23, 2006.

Actual claims incurred may exceed current reserves established for claims

        Recorded claim reserves in the Property-Liability business are based on our best estimates of losses, both reported and IBNR, after considering known facts and interpretations of circumstances. Internal factors are considered including our experience with similar cases, actual claims paid, historical trends

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involving claim payment patterns, pending levels of unpaid claims, loss management programs, product mix, and contractual terms. External factors are also considered which include but are not limited to law changes, court decisions, changes to regulatory requirements and economic conditions. Because reserves are estimates of the unpaid portion of losses that have occurred, including IBNR losses, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded reserves and such variance may adversely affect our operating results and financial condition.

        Management believes the estimated claim reserves related to Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma are appropriately established and recorded based on available facts, information, laws and regulations. However, actual results may differ materially from the amounts recorded for a variety of reasons: our policyholders' ability to report and our ability to adjust claims were impeded by the extent of the devastation, the size of the area affected, and the fact that some communities were hit by more than one storm; it is particularly difficult to assess the extent of damage in the initial stages of adjusting residential property losses; our estimate for the ultimate costs of repairs may not prove to be correct because of increased demand for services and supplies in the areas affected by a hurricane; the number of IBNR claims may be greater or less than anticipated; the need to have more claims adjusters to handle the large number of claims has increased pressure on our catastrophe claims settlement management process; and litigation has been filed, which if ultimately decided against us, could lead to a material increase in our catastrophe claims and claims expense estimate.

        Losses from catastrophes on policies Allstate sells and administers as a participant in the NFIP program are reported in our reserves for claims and claims expense and in our reinsurance recoverable. Since the level of NFIP claim activity that we experienced in 2005 is unprecedented, in subsequent fiscal quarters we may need to increase the amount of IBNR and related reinsurance recoverable. However, because the federal government is responsible for paying all such claims, we do not expect that any such increases will affect net income or shareholders' equity. Additionally, the expense allowances we receive from NFIP may ultimately be determined to be either insufficient to meet our incremental expense or may prove to be in excess of such expense.

Predicting claim expense relating to asbestos and other environmental and discontinued lines is inherently uncertain

        The process of estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines liabilities is complicated by complex legal issues concerning, among other things, the interpretation of various insurance policy provisions and whether those losses are, or were ever intended to be, covered; and whether losses could be recoverable through retrospectively determined premium, reinsurance or other contractual agreements. Asbestos-related bankruptcies and other asbestos litigations are complex, lengthy proceedings that involve substantial uncertainty for insurers. While we believe that improved actuarial techniques and databases have assisted in estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines net loss reserves, these refinements may subsequently prove to be inadequate indicators of the extent of probable loss. Consequently, ultimate net losses from these discontinued lines could materially exceed established loss reserves and expected recoveries, and have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, operating results and financial position.

This excerpt taken from the ALL 10-K filed Feb 24, 2005.

Actual claims incurred may exceed current reserves established for claims

        Recorded claim reserves in the Property-Liability business are based on our best estimates of losses, both reported and incurred but not reported, after considering known facts and circumstances, internal factors including our experience with similar losses, historical trends involving claim payment patterns, loss payments, pending levels of unpaid claims, loss management programs and product mix. In addition, reserve estimates are influenced by external factors including changes in regulation, court decisions, economic conditions and public attitudes. Because reserves are estimates of losses that have occurred, including IBNR losses, the establishment of appropriate reserves, including reserves for catastrophes, is an inherently uncertain and complex process. The ultimate cost of losses may vary materially from recorded reserves and such variance may adversely affect our operating results and financial condition.

Predicting claim expense relating to asbestos and other environmental and discontinued lines is inherently uncertain

        The process of estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines liabilities is complicated by complex legal issues concerning, among other things, the interpretation of various insurance policy provisions and whether those losses are, or were ever intended to be, covered; the ability of policyholders to file claims or add claimants to active claims; and whether losses could be recoverable through retrospectively determined premium, reinsurance or other contractual agreements. Asbestos-related bankruptcies and other asbestos litigations are complex, lengthy proceedings that involve substantial uncertainty for insurers. While we believe that improved actuarial techniques and databases have assisted in estimating asbestos, environmental and other discontinued lines net loss reserves, these refinements may subsequently prove to be inadequate indicators of the extent of probable loss. Consequently, ultimate net losses from these discontinued lines could materially exceed established loss reserves and expected recoveries, and have a material adverse effect on our liquidity, operating results and financial position.

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