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AIG prospects only getting dimmer![]() |
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American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG) provides insurance and financial services in both the United States and abroad. One of the largest companies in the world by assets and employee size, AIG was a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from April 1, 2004 to September 22, 2008.[1] Through its subsidiaries, its holdings can be divided into four sections: General Insurance, Life Insurance and Retirement Services, Financial Services, and Asset Management.
AIG was surprisingly over-levered to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and incredibly exposed to the credit markets. Particularly in the company's Capital Markets subdivision, the credit crunch has taken a bite out of the bottom line; in 2007, the firm reported write-offs of $11 billion on one of its investment holdings. The nearly $20 billion that AIG has written down from losses on credit derivatives has also led the SEC and Justice Department to investigate the possible overstating of the value of these Credit default swap positions during the process of the revaluations.[2]
In the past, AIG’s diversity and international holdings helped to insulate it from poor conditions in isolated markets. It posted net revenues of $110 billion and profits of $6.2 billion in 2007. However, weak corporate oversight and risk management, as well as unchecked speculative trading, in its Financial Services arm brought the company to the brink of bankruptcy. In an historic move, the Federal Reserve granted an $85 billion loan to AIG and were granted effective control over the company with a 79.9% ownership stake.[3] The terms of the deal have been restructure twice, but as of November 12, 2008, the AIG "rescue" encompasses $152.5 billion in government assistance.[4] Despite all the government aid they have already received, some investors fear that AIG will need more money on top of the $152.5 billion they have already received.[5] Newly appointed CEO Edward Liddy (formerly of Allstate) has stated that he intends to keep AIG running as a "smaller, nimbler" public company. He will use proceeds from asset sales to pay back the Federal government and keep intact many of the company's core insurance operations.[6]
Founded as the American Asiatic Underwriters insurance agency in 1919 in Shanghai, China by philanthropist Cornelius Vander Starr, AIG rapidly expanded to the rest of the world. Originally specializing in marine and fire insurance, the company soon spread into other markets. In 1962, AIG’s U.S. focus shifted from personal insurance to high-margin corporate coverage, with insurance being sold through independent brokers to avoid paying salaries to agents who sold little to no insurance. The company went public in 1969, and is based out of New York, New York. AIG is best known for its business model, which strives to generate an underwriting profit. Underwriting profit occurs when the amount of premiums taken is greater than the claims paid out before considering investment returns, though naturally this is difficult for most insurance companies to achieve. AIG has cultivated a strong relationship with China, having been issued the first foreign insurance license in 40 years in 1992.
| AIG Financials (In Millions) | 2006[7] | 2007[7] | 2008[7] | 2009Q1[8] |
| Total Revenues | 113,387 | 110,064 | 11,104 | 20,458 |
| Total Expenses | 91,700 | 101,121 | 119,865 | 26,826 |
| Net Income | 14,048 | 6,200 | -99,289 | -5,133 |
Primary business units of general insurance include:
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AIG's subsidiaries are multiple line companies writing all lines of commercial property and casualty insurance, as well as various personal lines domestically and abroad. Workers compensation business is the largest single class of General Insurance, accounting for about 15% of net premiums during 2006. The vast majority of General Insurance is in the casualty classes, which account for about 30.7% of the company’s operating income. Thanks to AIGs diversity, the company can take or leave rates that other, more one-dimensional companies are forced to take. For this reason, while the property and casualty industry as a whole posted a combined loss of $4.83 billion in 2003, AIG reported an underwriting profit of $667.2 million in the same area. That same year, the expense ratio was 18.2%, more than a third less than the industry average of 24.8%. Even with the increased focus on life insurance, property and casualty remains one of AIGs strong suits.
Life Insurance is a rapidly growing section of AIG's operations suite. Alone, it accounts for the largest section of revenue, at 49%. Of this, 68% was earned from operations in foreign countries, with the remainder garnered domestically. The trend of AIGs acquisitions over the last two decades places its balance of insurance squarely in the life insurance area of the industry, away from its previous mainstay, property and casualty. Notably, it’s 1970 purchase of Taiwan’s Nan Shan Life Insurance Company and 2001 acquisition of American General Corp demonstrates that AIG is focusing more heavily on this area. The American Life Insurance Company (ALICO) is AIG's mainstay for both domestic and overseas Life Insurance services. While AIG is already the largest individual operator in this field, it is still shifting its holdings’ focus from property and casualty to life insurance.
The reason behind the shift is because the life insurance industry is less cyclical than property and causal insurance, making earnings much less volatile in this sector. With AIG moving more and more into life insurance, its profit and net growth rate should settle to a more consistent level. The top three geographic sectors for life insurance are the EU, U.S., and Japan. AIG possesses significant holdings in each country, with its foreign assets in the EU and Japan providing a large advantage over its competition. Despite the relative stability in this field, there has been recent turmoil in regard to capital reserves at AIG life insurance subsidiaries. Many of these companies had used AIG common stock as capital for required reserves. Most notably, the parent company had to transfer ¥90.7 billion ($854 million) to the Japanese unit of Alico to shore up its capital. This represents a nearly 40% increase in the Japanese unit's capital.[9]
AIG’s Financial Services division has been a growing source of revenue in recent years, though tough conditions in global financial markets in 2007 led to both negative revenues and an operating loss for the year. AIG's financial services offerings are extremely diversified and include:
Of these subdivisions, the aircraft leasing and consumer finance operations generate the majority of financial services revenues. International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC) is AIG’s aircraft and equipment leasing subsidiary. It is the world's largest aircraft leasing company with a fleet valued at just under $42 billion.[10]. It had revenues of $4.73 billion in 2007 and operating profits of over $600 million. This steady source of profits for AIG may be a thing of the past as the firm has hired investment bank Moelis & Company to find a buyer for the segment.[11]
As of June 2008, the Financial Products group was holding over $60 billion in credit default swaps. At that point, over $20 billion of this CDS portfolio has been written down as a loss. This loss would expand dramatically to over $33 billion in November.[12] The SEC is now investigating whether or not the financial products division intentionally overstated the value of CDS on mortgage backed securities [13] In fact, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that AIG now owes over $10 billion to trading counter parties for losses.[14] The report suggests that the losses were a result of failed speculative bets on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and Collateralized Debt Obligations(CDO).
Asset Management is the smallest and least developed of AIGs business operations, accounting for 5% of 2007 revenue. The services offered include:
The primary subsidiaries in play here are AIG Retirement Services, Inc., which includes AIG SunAmerica Asset Management Corp. (SAAMCo), and AIG SunAmerica. Profit is made from fees received for investment products and services provided, including standard equity, fixed income, and alternative investment funds, as well as securities lending and custodial services.
In addition to its aircraft leasing company, AIG also owns 9.9% of the People’s Insurance Company of China directly, and 19.8% through subsidiaries. 62% of the 21st Century Insurance Group is owned through several subsidiaries of AIG. Finally, most of the Bulgarian Telecommunications Company and Bulgarian mobile operator Vivatel is owned by AIG.
The beginning of the AIG's monumental downfall was the downgrading of its credit rating. The reasons for the downgrade involve years of poor oversight and risk management, but the actual unwinding of the company did not begin until AIG lost its AAA rating on September 15, 2008. S&P lowered the firm to A- and Moody's downgraded them to A2.[15]
This was catastrophic for AIG because it required the firm to post additional capital of $13 billion to its debtors and trading counterparties.[16] However, AIG was already low on cash. The firm had raised over $20 billion earlier in 2008 after three straight quarterly losses. [17] AIG was now in the midst of the all too familiar "liquidity crisis." As its positions were devalued, its share price fell and credit rating was lowered. Because of the lower credit rating, the firm had to come up with additional capital. But because of the lower share price, it could not sell equity. Since credit markets were frozen, it had only one place to look for the requisite capital- the U.S. government. AIG initially sought a $40 billion bridge loan from the Federal Reserve to help it sell assets and stem losses.[18]
There was massive systemic risk in the case of an AIG bankruptcy. RBC Capital Markets estimated that the bankruptcy would have cost the financial industry $180 billion in losses. They arrived at this figure by examining AIG's outstanding insurance on debt securities, which was over $441 billion.[19] The Federal Reserve brought in Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to assess possible options for AIG to avoid bankruptcy. After the two firms' representatives could not come up with a solution, the Fed moved forward with its plan to offer the $85 billion loan to help prevent a systemic failure in the capital markets from an AIG bankruptcy.[20]
The historic agreement was unveiled on September 17, 2008. AIG would receive an emergency $85 billion credit facility secured by all of AIG's assets, and the company would in turn pledge 79.9% ownership through warrants in effectively a debt-for-equity swap.[21] The loan was structured as a two year floating rate note. The FED structured the payment from AIG to be the benchmark 3-Month Libor plus 8.5%. [22] The Fed also can suspend dividends and has the right of first refusal, which means that AIG cannot sell assets unless the proceeds are remitted to the government.[23] The obvious implication from the "punitive" interest rate (as described by Unicredit Group analyst Marco Annuziata) was that the FED did not intend for this to be financing for the firm to continue its operations. This was a loan for a single purpose- and that was for AIG to sell assets and pay off its obligations in the two year time frame.
A mere three weeks after the Federal Reserve lent AIG $85 billion, the firm was in the midst of another liquidity crisis. This second collapse was the result of the firm's securities lending program.[24] The implication appears to be that AIG lent out securities and lost a great deal of the cash collateral. AIG lent out equities, bonds, and CDOs to firms in return for cash collateral and a borrowing fee. AIG has since suffered significant losses as their holdings, especially CDS, continue to decline in value and additional collateral is required. At the same time, firms that borrowed securities from AIG are redeeming and requesting their posted cash collateral back.[25]
Thus, AIG has again sought the Fed's assistance as the lender of last resort. This additional secured credit facility was actually structured as a loan from AIG to the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed borrowed $37.8 billion worth of investment grade (BBB or better) fixed income securities, and in exchange posted the same amount of cash collateral to AIG.[26]
As AIG's prospects continued to worsen in tandem with the global financial markets, it became clear that the original loan package would cripple AIG. On November 10, the firm reported a third quarter loss of $24.5 billion. Even planned asset sales were falling apart as potential buyers had difficulty attaining financing and shrinking valuations decreased their proceeds. Newly appointed CEO Edward Liddy commented on the situation: "It was obvious to me from Day One that the terms of that arrangement were really quite punitive in terms of the interest rate and the commitment fee and the shortness of it...I started really about a week after I got here trying to renegotiate."[27] Once Congress had passed the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), there was a new opportunity for capital infusion into the company. Now, the Treasury had the authority to purchase securities or equity from these beleaguered financial companies. Rather than push AIG into complete nationalization of bankruptcy with a nearly $130 billion loan that had an interest rate of over 10% and only two year maturity, the Fed and the Treasury collaborated to help stem the actual source of the losses.
The new deal was structured in three branches:
As Liddy pointed out, the original loan was looking increasingly less likely to be paid off. So, the Treasury restructured the Fed's secured credit facility to a much more favorable agreement for AIG. This time, the firm was offered increased liquidity through equity and asset purchases. The new agreement reduced the amount of the loan from $85 billion to $60 billion, lowered the interest rate from 3-Month Libor plus 8.5% on the entire facility to 3-Month Libor plus 3% on drawn funds and plus 0.75% on the unused balance, and extended the life of the loan from two to five years.[28][29][30]
The second part of the Treasury's restructured package was to utilize the TARP program to purchase $40 billion of senior preferred stock. AIG used this new capital to pay down funds drawn from the initial secured credit facility. The Treasury also placed limitations on executive compensation and put a freeze on the bonus pool of the top 70 company executives. [31]
The final piece of the restructured agreement attempts to attack the source of the problem - AIG's overexposure to mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps. The Federal Reserve and AIG worked together to create two new limited liability companies to move the toxic assets off of AIG's balance sheet. The first was created with a $22.5 billion credit facility from the Fed and was used to purchase residential MBS from AIG. The firm would post $1 billion of its own capital to the LLC and bear the risk of the first billion in losses. The second LLC has a $30 billion facility from the Fed to purchase CDOs that AIG had written credit default swaps on. This was effectively used to unwind the CDS that AIG had written. AIG contributed $5 billion of its own capital and would be accountable for the first losses as well. These LLCs would only be guaranteed by the assets they possess, rather than all of AIG's assets as the other facility is structured, and will be repaid by the cash flows of the underlying assets.[32]
AIG has hired Wall Street titan Blackstone Group to advise the firm on its disposal of insurance businesses and assets.[33]
In an interesting note, many reinsurance industry analysts are expecting rates and profits to rise. A major factor in this is former industry and price leader AIG significantly reducing operations in the sector. Barclays Capital analyst Jay Gelb conducted a survey of reinsurance purchasers and found that 85% of the group use AIG for some form of coverage. Of this 85%, 14% of the companies are planning to move to a new firm and 25% are unsure of their future business with AIG.[34]
Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company is an insurer and engineering service firm that was founded in 1866 and bought by AIG in 2000. The company "offers a range of specialty coverages, engineering-based risk management, and loss reduction services."[35] The firm represents a small portion of AIG's operations, as Hoover's estimates that HSB had 2007 sales of $593 million (.5% of AIG total revenue).[36]
On 23 December 2008, AIG agreed to sell HSB Group to German financial giant Munich Re for $742 million.[37] The price is significant as it represents a nearly 40% discount on the $1.2 billion that AIG paid to acquire HSB in 2000. Former CEO Maurice Greenberg has called the sale price "distressed" and wrote a letter to AIG's board of directors demanding an explanation of the sale process.[38] The purchase will allow Munich Re to increase its lead in the reinsurance business as it is currently the world's largest reinsurer by revenue.[39]
International Lease Finance Corporation is one of the largest segments of AIG as it represented 4.3% of 2007 revenue and over 6.7% of operating income. ILFC's business model is to purchase new commercial airplanes directly from manufacturers and then lease them to passenger airlines all over the world. It leases these airplanes to passenger airlines such as Delta, American Airlines, and Air France. ILFC owns a portfolio of 900 Boeing and Airbus aircraft and has committed to purchase 234 more through 2017. The firm values its fleet at just under $45 billion with $30 billion financed through debt.[40] In AIG's current situation of $60 billion of outstanding "rescue" debt, they have had explicit instructions from the Treasury and Federal Reserve to divest of certain assets and businesses.[41] One of these businesses that AIG appears to be parting ways with is ILFC. The firm has hired investment bank Moelis & Company to find a buyer for ILFC. British newspaper "The Daily Telegraph" speculated that the business will be purchased for $8-10 billion.[42]
In an apparent misnomer, The American Life Insurance Company (ALICO) only provides life and health insurance outside of the United States. The company claims to currently operate in 55 countries.[43] Its largest market is life insurance in Japan, where it has the largest market share of AIG's three units. This segment has had capital problems recently as a large portion of its reserves were in AIG common shares. In October of 2008, AIG has to transfer ¥90.7 billion ($854 million) to ALICO to help shore up its capital.[44] As part of its ongoing firesale of segments and subsidiaries, AIG is reportedly sending out "information memorandums" to potential buyers of ALICO. CNN Money has reported that the firm may fetch as much as ¥1 trillion, or $10.6 billion.[45]
Tenaska TMV - Back in April of 2007, the AIG Financial Products division purchased a 50% interest in the TMV subsidiary of privately held Tenaska Energy.[46] Tenaska itself is an independent power producer that is ranked by Forbes as the 24th largest private company in the U.S. (based on 2007 revenue).[47] Tenaska Marketing Ventures, or TMV, specialized innatural gas trading and supply chain solutions. The subsidiary sold or managed 1.86 trillion cf of natural gas in 2007, which is about 8% of total U.S. consumption.[48] In November of 2008, AIG agreed to sell their 50% interest back to Tenaska. AIG was advised by Blackstone, and the deal closed on January 8. However, the terms of the transaction were not disclosed.[49]
As with any insurance company, risk modeling is a primary factor in AIG’s performance. Since level of risk determines insurance premiums, insurers consider every available quantifiable factor to develop profiles of high and low insurance risk. Due to the impracticability of determining insurance on a case-by-case basis, this general profile of high and low insurance risk is applied in the form of an algorithm to sort all clients between the two categories. Just like other algorithms that are used to simplify complex systems, insurance models suffer from a lack of scope. Situations that would have a large impact on risk but are nearly impossible to predict (natural disasters, terrorist attacks, etc…) can create difficulties in determining an appropriate premium. However, in more conventional situations, the profit or loss of insurance companies is determined by their accuracy in sorting high-risk clients from low-risk ones.
This being said, AIG also faces low obsolescence risk - that is, there is little chance of the company's services becoming obsolete due to a lack of market demand. So long as the company continues to diversify the insurance products it offers in accordance with the current industry trends, there is also little chance of competitors offering substantially different risk models that undercut AIG's. Essentially, the company will remain at about the same level of demand so long as it remains in the insurance industry.
Insurance companies in the United States are regulated primarily by the individual states. There is no federal regulatory agency that oversees insurance companies. Insurance companies are required to meet certain financial requirements and are required to demonstrate periodically (at least annually) to a state's Department of Insurance that they continue to meet or exceed the minimum financial requirements in order to continue to conduct business in the state. The Department of Insurance can take various actions against an insurance company that fails to conduct its business in a financially sound manner, including action to cause the company to cease operation in the state.
Another way the government affects insurance companies is through the interest rate. Interest rates affect any type of investment-related firm, or firms that issue corporate debt or equity. Since debt is determined by the time-weighted average of payments discounted by current interest rates and equity is determined by the present value of a firm plus future projects discounted over the risk free interest rate, interest rates have a large impact on the financial bottom line. However, this matters less to AIG than most of its competitors due to AIG’s major diversification and heavy investment in foreign holdings. Fluctuation in long and short interest rates would have a marginal impact at best on AIG’s bottom line.
AIG's foreign roots took hold in China in 1919 and Japan in 1946. It is now the top foreign insurer in both nations. Despite the entrance of American and European competitors, AIG's head start in the region should guarantee dominance amongst the foreign insurers. Whether or not AIG can become more than a niche player compared to the existing Chinese and Japanese insurers is an open question. The company's business savvy came into play with offerings like SARS-related insurance, stricter control on overhead, and top ratings from credit companies (a major selling point in regions with iffy insurers, like China). Issues in Japan are different, with the main foe being a sluggish economy. This was offset with a series of acquisitions, mostly of General Electric's (GE) old holdings in Japan.
Outside of the big two, AIG has a strong presence in the rest of Asia, though it is being challenged both by other foreign investors and local insurance companies. While its presence in China and Japan is strong, AIG faces stiff competition from Prudential and state-backed insurers in India. The rest of the South East Asian market continues to expand, and while AIG has holdings in Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea, none are dominant on the level of its Chinese and Japanese holdings. As a whole, Asia accounted for about a third of AIG's revenue and a significant, but undisclosed, chunk of its profit.
In other regions, AIG has significant life insurance holdings in the EU, which provide a big lead over the competition there.
Due to its various holdings, AIG has a very eclectic group of competitors. In the life insurance industry, AIG already possesses the largest share of the United States market, even as it brings more of its assets and capital to bear. Since AIG has the security of a diverse investment portfolio, it can afford to leave risky rates and pursue the rarer, better ones, unlike one-dimensional companies that are forced to pursue all leads as to stay afloat. Therefore, much as it did earlier in property and causal insurance, AIG will be able to maximize its holdings in life insurance.
Generally, AIG is outperforming its major competitors. In the United States, AIG has the largest individual company share of the life insurance market, at 11% overall. Combined with its strong overseas performance in the EU, China, and Japan AIG has a stranglehold on the international life insurance market.
| Premium Income (USD, Millions) | Annualized Premiums (USD, Millions) | Assets under Mgmt. (USD, Millions) | Operating Margin (USD, Billions) | Return on Avg. Equity (USD, Billions) | |
| AIG | 44,800 | 2,994 | 614 | 19.16% | 14.91% |
| ING | 32,292 | 223.6 | 803.4 | 13.50% | 17.14% |
| MetLife | 26,412 | 521 | N/A | 12.04% | 30.19% |
| Prudential | 13,908 | 366 | 616 | 13.55% | 13.79% |
| Northwestern Mutual | 12,129 | 419 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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