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AAPL will not beat estimatesOn Nov. 3rd, I made another AAPL article here: In that article I complained about a 'bullish (bulls***) pamphlet I got in the mail and recollected a few personal stories about previous predictions and market timing - but, I still disliked the stock. Why did I use the word 'Britney Spears'? Very simple. Hits. Blog hits. Simple placement of nonsensical popular words might increase the hit count. In the last sentence I stated "Perhaps... timing Britney Spear's comeback is as hard as timing a price correction for GOOG or AAPL?". I think I was wrong. At that time GOOG was at $711 and AAPL was at $188. Now GOOG is at $566 (-20%) and AAPL is at $130 (-30%). In other-words, timing Britney Spears comeback is a lot harder than timing GOOG or AAPL. What has happened since that first article? AAPL rose to a high of $203. My timing was off, but I feel much better now as it is trading at $130 and that's lower than it was during the first article. I feel good! Mind you, the market has had a bad time as well, but it is nice to see some of these 'momentum' popular stocks take a 'correction', and now I have a bit of confidence (I could still be wrong) that perhaps my original thoughts might be right. After enjoying 3 quarters of beating analysts by 0.20 or more, AAPL started beating estimates by only 0.14-0.15 cents and they revised their guidance for the next quarter. Here's a question. If AAPL revised guidance wil the analysts smarten up and change their estimates, or will something funky happen and AAPL still beat their own guidance by 0.10? I'm still pessimistic about AAPL. I still dislike the accruals, F-score, price/book, competition ("The Company expects competition in this space to intensify', insider selling (selling at around $185? - 'smart' insiders eh?), and the valuation. Oh, as for the F-score, funky accounting and SEC, I saw this on their 10-Q: "While the Company believes it has made appropriate judgments in determining the correct measurement dates for its stock option grants, the SEC may disagree with the manner in which the Company has accounted for and reported, or not reported, the financial impact. Accordingly, there is a risk the Company may have to further restate its prior financial statements, amend prior filings with the SEC, or take other actions not currently contemplated." Interesting, isn't it? Sell. I still dislike it. But if you have an Apple wooden table, where can I get one? And Britney Spears... best of luck. One final note -- I had originally posted this at http://www.investorplaceblogs.com/users/ahknaten |
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