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ACI » Topics » Inaccuracies in our estimates of our coal reserves could result in decreased profitability from lower than expected revenues or higher than expected costs.

This excerpt taken from the ACI 10-K filed Mar 1, 2010.
Inaccuracies in our estimates of our coal reserves could result in decreased profitability from lower than expected revenues or higher than expected costs.
 
Our future performance depends on, among other things, the accuracy of our estimates of our proven and probable coal reserves. We base our estimates of reserves on engineering, economic and geological data assembled, analyzed and reviewed by internal and third-party engineers and consultants. We update our estimates of the quantity and quality of proven and probable coal reserves annually to reflect the production of coal from the reserves, updated geological models and mining recovery data, the tonnage contained in new lease areas acquired and estimated costs of production and sales prices. There are numerous factors and assumptions inherent in estimating the quantities and qualities of, and costs to mine, coal reserves, including many factors beyond our control, including the following:
 
  •  quality of the coal;
 
  •  geological and mining conditions, which may not be fully identified by available exploration data and/or may differ from our experiences in areas where we currently mine;
 
  •  the percentage of coal ultimately recoverable;
 
  •  the assumed effects of regulation, including the issuance of required permits, taxes, including severance and excise taxes and royalties, and other payments to governmental agencies;
 
  •  assumptions concerning the timing for the development of the reserves; and
 
  •  assumptions concerning equipment and productivity, future coal prices, operating costs, including for critical supplies such as fuel, tires and explosives, capital expenditures and development and reclamation costs.
 
As a result, estimates of the quantities and qualities of economically recoverable coal attributable to any particular group of properties, classifications of reserves based on risk of recovery, estimated cost of production, and estimates of future net cash flows expected from these properties as prepared by different engineers, or by the same engineers at different times, may vary materially due to changes in the above factors and assumptions. Actual production recovered from identified reserve areas and properties, and revenues and expenditures associated with our mining operations, may vary materially from estimates. Any inaccuracy in our estimates


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related to our reserves could result in decreased profitability from lower than expected revenues and/or higher than expected costs.
 
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