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Bullish Bankers  May 23 
In low volume trading, as many have started the holiday weekend early, the markets were down with the Dow closing at 8277.32.  The NASDAQ was down 0.19% closing at 1692.01, with the S&P down 0.15% closing at 887.00.  The 10-year saw the...
MarketWatch  May 22 
Most tech issues ended the week higher, with Autodesk gaining ground after posting better-than-expected quarterly results.
TheStreet.com  May 22 
Autodesk beat earnings estimates and announced job cuts at the same time.
MarketWatch  May 21 
Autodesk Inc. on Thursday reported a fiscal first-quarter loss of $32.1 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a profit of $94.6 million, or 41 cents a share, for the year-ealier period. Revenue was $425.8 million, down from $598.8 million...
PR News Wire  May 21 
Implements Previously Announced Plan To Further Reduce Expenses SAN RAFAEL, Calif., May 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Autodesk, Inc. (Nasdaq: ADSK) today reported financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2010. -- Revenue was $426 million, a
MarketWatch  May 21 
Shares of Gap Inc. advance after the retailer tops forecasts for lower quarterly profit, while Autodesk shares surge after the software maker says it will cut jobs.
New York Times  Apr 21 
The SpacePilot Pro is full of wow for those who work in 3-D computerized environments.
MarketWatch  Mar 31 
Shares of design software maker Autodesk Inc. rise more than 10%, as investors angled for a dose of good news from the company at its briefing of Wall Street analysts later this week.
BusinessWeek  Mar 27 
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ADSK AT A GLANCE
P/E 78.6VERY HIGH
EV/EBITDA 25.5HIGH
ROA 2.6%AVG
ROE 4.6%AVG
Debt to Equity 0.708AVG
Current Ratio 1.91AVG
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Autodesk sells Computer Aided Design (CAD) software, which is used by engineers and architects to mock up designs for products and buildings. While Autodesk's competitors sell advanced software with a $10,000 price tag to niche audiences, Autodesks's "AutoCAD" sells for a relatively modest $4,000, making it the de facto standard with 85% market share. The software's price means AutoCAD is the only option for smaller firms - a market the company's competitors have only recently begun to target.

Autodesk's large customer base (at 85% market share more than 8 million AutoCAD users) is itself a competitive advantage. CAD software is technical and tricky to learn, and therefore switching costs are high. As the defacto standard, most new professionals who need to use CAD software learn AutoCAD.

The company has grown revenues by convincing customers to switch to a subcription model for AutoCAD software. In this model, customers get automatic updates and new features in exchange for a recurring fee. The model is much more profitable for Autodesk - only 22% of Autodesk's customers buy software in this way, but they account for nearly half of the revenues.

[edit] Company Overview

Autodesk Annual Report
Autodesk Annual Report[1]

Since 2003, Autodesk has shown constant growth in their revenues and kept the same hold on the market. AutoCad happens to be the standard in the market, primarily because it takes time to unlearn the design software and learn a new standard. Moreover, Autodesk has traditionally focused on the mid market segment,the largest segment in the market, whereas their nearest competitors have been focusing on the higher end segment. The company has focused on converting their customers to a subscription plan as well, so that they can make more revenue per client. This focus on subscription has boosted revenues by 49% from 2002 to 2007.

As a result, Autodesk has benefited in a number of financial areas; sustained 20%+ annual sales growth with a 5% increase in gross margins. [2]In revenue, Autodesk has shown significant increase in its revenues in the past years, growing by 19.7% last year.[3]

Revenue by Geographic Area[4]
Geographic Area Revenue by Area (in $ mn) Increase from 2006 (in $ mn) Increase in %
Americas 734.5 111.3 18
Europe, Middle East and Africa 687.5 129.3 23
Asia Pacific 417.8 62.0 17

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] Industry wide Transition from 2D to 3D

Autodesk is trying to increase the adoption of “next generation” 3D software products as compared to the 2D market. It recognizes that the 3-D segment would be a key driver for growth for the company in the future.[5] The 3-D segment made up 21% of the total revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2007. Over the past three years ending October 2006, 3-D revenue grew at a growth of 73.5% versus 28.6% for core AutoCAD growth. This would definitely provide Autodesk with the opportunity to up-sell its massive 2-D installed base into higher average sales price (ASP) 3-D software and to boost growth. However, the segment growth slowed down to 37% in 2007 as compared to posting over 60% the two previous years, pointing to competition in the market and challenges for long term growth.[6]

[edit] Dominance of AutoCad in the market

Competitors in 2-D CAD are quite small, with none exerting significant independent threats to Autodesk’s position. AutoCad and AutoCad LT continuously drive up the sales for the company. They are touted to be the “crown jewels” of Autodesk, accounting for approximately 44% of revenue and 36% of licensing revenue last fiscal year. Until now, the products have doing well in the market. However, an increasing focus on this segment by their competitors, namely UGS who is commoditizing its 2-D software and allowing users to download it online, highlights a trend that might catch on in the future, and prove harmful to Autodesk.

[edit] Piracy and Counterfeiting problem

One of the major problems faced by many IP holding companies is the issue of their products being copied and being sold for a cheaper price in the markets, more so in the developing world(see concept: China's Piracy & Counterfeiting Problems). Since the country is unable to safeguard the Intellectual Property rights of many companies, Autodesk happens to be one of those to be hit by such infractions as imitators come up with cheaper versions of their products.

[edit] Slowing US economy

Autodesk has become increasingly subject to the risks arising from adverse changes in domestic and global economic and political conditions. As economic growth in the United States and other countries slows down, many customers may delay or reduce technology purchases. Since Autodesk controls a lions share of the market, they would be more prone to the market changes in US.

[edit] Possible acquisitions for the future

Autodesk has been known to acquire various companies in order to expand its businesses. It is estimated that this continue so in the future. They acquired Alias Corporation in Jan 2006 and is estimated that made a difference of approximately 25% in revenue growth in the first nine months of 2007. [7] In order to improve their functionality in the 3-D segment, they have acquired NavisWorks, Opticore and Skymatter. Such transactions would embolden Autodesk to go forward with more acquisitions.

[edit] Competition

Autodesk controls over 85% of the market, primarily because of the fact their competitors have been focusing on a more premium market segment. Recently, Dassault and UGS have made forays into the mainstream or mid-market with product level CAD software selling in the $4,000-$5,000 per seat range, which is Autodesk’s core market.

A comparison of the sales of CAD units for the main competitors portrays Autodesk's position in the market. Competitors in 2-D CAD are quite small, with none exerting significant independent threats to Autodesk’s position.

However, one of the main development in this market has been, UGS (Siemens) has indicated that there have been over 33,000 downloads of the Solid Edge 2- D drafting tool in the four months since its introduction. While the number of downloads does not pose any major threat, UGS’s decision reflects a belief by some that basic 2-D tools will become commoditized and could be given away for free in an effort to help drive 3-D adoption.


Comparison by competitors for CAD software
Competitors Autodesk Parametric Technology Solidworks (Dassault Systemes, S.A. ) UGS PLM Software (Siemens)
Annual Sales ($ Million) 1,839.8 941.3 213.2 1,154.6


Employees 5,000[8] 3,751[9] 655[10] 7,200[11]
Market Capitalization ($ Million)[12] 9,499.2 1,774.5 N.A. N.A.
CAD Sales 2006 (Million units) 6.2 0.5 0.4 0.3




[edit] Notes

  1. Autodesk 2007 10K, Item 6 Pg 30
  2. Autodesk 10-K Report Item 6, Pg 30
  3. Autodesk 2007 10K, Item 6 Pg 30
  4. Autodesk 10-K Item 7A. Pg 51
  5. Autodesk 10-K Item 7, Pg 39
  6. Autodesk 10-K Item 7, Pg 53
  7. Autodesk 10-K Item 7, Pg 51
  8. Autodesk Website
  9. Parametric Technologies Website
  10. Hoovers Financial Report
  11. Hoovers Financial Report
  12. Hoovers Financial Report
 
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