|
|
![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
This excerpt taken from the C 10-Q filed Nov 6, 2009. Mortgage-Backed Securities For U.S. mortgage-backed securities (and in particular for Alt-A and other mortgage-backed securities that have significant unrealized losses as a percentage of amortized cost), credit impairment is assessed using a cash flow model that estimates the cash flows on the underlying mortgages, using the security-specific collateral and transaction structure. The model estimates cash flows from the underlying mortgage loans and distributes those cash flows to various tranches of securities, considering the transaction structure and any subordination and credit enhancements that exist in that structure. The cash flow model incorporates actual cash flows on the mortgage-backed securities through the current period and then projects the remaining cash flows using a number of assumptions, including default rates, prepayment rates, and recovery rates (on foreclosed properties). 116 Management develops specific assumptions using as much market data as possible and includes internal estimates as well as estimates published by rating agencies and other third-party sources. Default rates are projected by considering current underlying mortgage loan performance, generally assuming the default of (1) 10% of current loans, (2) 25% of 30-59 day delinquent loans, (3) 75% of 60-90 day delinquent loans and (4) 100% of 91+ day delinquent loans. These estimates are extrapolated along a default timing curve to estimate the total lifetime pool default rate. Other assumptions used contemplate the actual collateral attributes, including geographic concentrations, rating agency loss projections, rating actions and current market prices. The key base assumptions for mortgage-backed securities as of September 30, 2009 are in the table below:
In addition, cash flow projections are developed using more stressful parameters, and management assesses the results of those stress tests (including the severity of any cash shortfall indicated and the likelihood of the stress scenario's actually occurring based on the underlying pool's characteristics and performance) to assess whether management expects to recover the amortized cost basis of the security. If cash flow projections indicate that the Company does not expect to recover its amortized cost basis, the Company recognizes the estimated credit loss in earnings. This excerpt taken from the C 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2009. Mortgage-Backed Securities For U.S. mortgage-backed securities (and in particular for Alt-A and other mortgage-backed securities that have significant unrealized losses as a percentage of amortized cost), credit impairment is assessed using a cash flow model that estimates the cash flows on the underlying mortgages, using the security-specific collateral and transaction structure. The model estimates cash flows from the underlying mortgage loans and distributes those cash flows to various tranches of securities, considering the transaction structure and any subordination and credit enhancements that exist in that structure. The cash flow model incorporates actual cash flows on the mortgage-backed securities through the current period and then projects the remaining cash flows using a number of assumptions, including default rates, prepayment rates, and recovery rates (on foreclosed properties). Management develops specific assumptions using as much market data as possible and includes internal estimates 102 as well as estimates published by rating agencies and other third-party sources. Default rates are projected by considering current underlying mortgage loan performance, generally assuming the default of (1) 10% of current loans, (2) 25% of 30-59 day delinquent loans, (3) 75% of 60-90 day delinquent loans and (4) 100% of 91+ day delinquent loans. These estimates are extrapolated along a default timing curve to estimate the total lifetime pool default rate. Other assumptions used contemplate the actual collateral attributes, including geographic concentrations, rating agency loss projections, rating actions and current market prices. The key base assumptions for mortgage-backed securities as of June 30, 2009 are in the table below:
In addition, cash flow projections are developed using more stressful parameters, and management assesses the results of those stress tests (including the severity of any cash shortfall indicated and the likelihood of the stress scenario actually occurring based on the underlying pool's characteristics and performance) to assess whether management expects to recover the amortized cost basis of the security. If cash flow projections indicate that the Company does not expect to recover its amortized cost basis, the Company recognizes the estimated credit loss in earnings. This excerpt taken from the C 10-Q filed May 11, 2009. Mortgage-Backed Securities For U.S. mortgage-backed securities (and in particular for Alt-A and other mortgage-backed securities that have significant unrealized losses as a percentage of amortized cost), credit impairment is assessed using a cash flow model that estimates the cash flows on the underlying mortgages, using the security-specific collateral and transaction structure. The model estimates cash flows from the underlying mortgage loans and distributes those cash flows to various tranches of securities, considering the transaction structure and any subordination and credit enhancements that exist in that structure. The cash flow model incorporates actual cash flows on the mortgage-backed securities through the current period and then projects the remaining cash flows using a number of assumptions, including default rates, prepayment rates, and recovery rates (on foreclosed properties). Management develops specific assumptions using as much market data as possible and includes internal estimates as well as estimates published by rating agencies and other third-party sources. Default rates are projected by considering current underlying mortgage loan performance, generally assuming the default of a) 10% of current loans, b) 25% of 30-59 day delinquent loans, c) 75% of 60-90 day delinquent loans and d) 100% of 91+ day delinquent loans. These estimates are extrapolated along a default timing curve to estimate the total lifetime pool default rate. Other assumptions used contemplate the actual collateral attributes, including geographic concentrations, rating agency loss projections, rating actions and current market prices. The key base assumptions for mortgage-backed securities as of March 31, 2009 are in the table below:
89 In addition, cash flow projections are developed using more stressful parameters, and management assesses the results of those stress tests (including the severity of any cash shortfall indicated and the likelihood of the stress scenario actually occurring based on the underlying pool's characteristics and performance) to assess whether management expects to recover the amortized cost basis of the security. If cash flow projections indicate that the Company does not expect to recover its amortized cost basis, the Company recognizes the estimated credit loss in earnings. This excerpt taken from the C 10-Q filed Oct 31, 2008. Mortgage-backed securities The increase in gross unrealized losses on mortgage-backed securities during the quarter ended September 30, 2008 was primarily related to ongoing widening of market credit spreads on Alt-A and Non-Agency securities. These increased market spreads reflect increased risk/liquidity premiums that buyers securities are currently demanding. As market liquidity for these types of securities has decreased, the primary buyers of these securities typically demand a return on investments that is significally higher than historically experienced. Consistent with prior periods, the Company has assessed each position for credit impairment. However, given the declines in fair values, and general concerns regarding housing prices, and the delinquency and default rates on the mortgage loans underlying these securities, the Company's analysis to identify securities in which it is not probable that all principal and interest contractually due will be recovered has been enhanced. The extent of the Company's analysis and the stress on assumptions used in the analysis are increased for securities where the current fair value or other characteristics of the security warrant heightened scrutiny regarding the credit quality of the investment. For U.S. mortgage-backed securities (and in particular for Alt-A and other mortgage-backed securities that have significant unrealized losses as a percentage of amortized cost), credit impairment is assessed using a cash flow model that estimates the cash flows on the underlying mortgages, using the security-specific collateral and transaction structure. The model estimates cash flows from the underlying mortgage loans and distributes those cash flows to various tranches of securities, considering the transaction structure and any subordination and credit enhancements that exist in that structure. The cash flow model incorporates actual cash flows on the mortgage-backed securities through the current period, and then projects remaining cash flows using a number of assumptions, including default rates, prepayment rates, and recovery rates (on foreclosed properties). Management develops specific assumptions using as much market data as possible, and includes internal estimates as well as estimates published by rating agencies and other third-party sources. If the models predict, given the forward-looking assumptions, that it is not probable that a mortgage-backed security will recover all principal and interest due, the Company records other-than-temporary impairment in the Consolidated Statement of Income equal to the entire decline in fair value of the mortgage-backed security. During the third quarter of 2008, the Company recorded approximately $600 million of pretax losses in the Consolidated Statement of Income for mortgage-backed securities where management determined it was not probable the Company would be able to collect all principal and interest when due. Where a mortgage-backed security is not deemed to be credit-impaired, management performs additional analysis to assess whether it has the intent and ability to hold each security for a period of time sufficient for a forecasted recovery of fair value. In most cases, management has asserted 38 that it has the intent and ability to hold investments for the forecasted recovery period, which in some cases may be the security's maturity date. Where such an assertion has not been made, the securities decline in fair value is deemed to be other-than-temporary and recorded in earnings. Management has asserted significant holding periods for mortgage-backed securities that in certain cases now approach the maturity of the securities. The weighted-average estimated life of the securities is currently approximately 7 years for U.S. mortgage-backed securities, and approximately 4 years for European mortgage-backed securities. The estimated life of the securities may change depending on future performance of the underlying loans, including prepayment activity and experienced credit losses. | EXCERPTS ON THIS PAGE:
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||