QUOTE AND NEWS
SeekingAlpha  Jul 7  Comment 
By Bill Maurer: I know that my coverage of biotech Dendreon (DNDN) has been heavily slanted towards the negative side. Over the past couple of years, this stock has been one of my best short ideas. I initially detailed how the stock could...
Motley Fool  Jul 2  Comment 
With large debt and a history of net losses, is it too little too late to turn around Dendreon?
Motley Fool  Jul 1  Comment 
Its time to play Fool in the blank
SeekingAlpha  Jun 24  Comment 
By David Runyan: Dendreon's Stock Price Makes for Easy Pickins A CEO departure in conjunction with struggling sales and a depressed stock price usually spell doom for a public company. This could well be the case for Dendreon...
Benzinga  Jun 24  Comment 
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) shares gained 52.90% to $101.85 in pre-market trading after the company reported that primary endpoint was met for lumacaftor study. xG Technology (NASDAQ: XGTI) shares jumped 50.54% to $2.80 in pre-market...
SeekingAlpha  Jun 18  Comment 
By Renu Singh: Biotechnology company Dendreon (DNDN) is not in good health in 2014. The company has lost around 34% of its market capitalization so far this year and its first-quarter results didn't inspire any confidence either, although they...
SeekingAlpha  Jun 18  Comment 
By Bill Maurer: When it comes to biotech name Dendreon (DNDN), the company's weakening balance sheet has been a reason I've argued shorting the name for a couple of years now. The company, which brings you the prostate cancer treatment Provenge,...
SeekingAlpha  Jun 11  Comment 
By biotech2infinity: Just a little while ago I wrote an article here about the options for DNDN going forward. The short, short version is that they either will go bankrupt, do something extremely and fantastically dilutive or be acquired. I...
Benzinga  Jun 10  Comment 
Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) shares opened almost five percent lower Wednesday after John Johnson, President, Chairman and CEO said he would be stepping down from the company. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mara Goldstein weighed in on the executive...




 
TOP CONTRIBUTORS

Dendreon Corporation (NYSE:DNDN) is a biotechnology company with a focus on developing drugs for cancer. Its most advanced product is Provenge (Sipuleucel-T), approved by the FDA in 2010, is a therapeutic vaccine developed for the treatment of prostate cancer. Successful late-stage clinical trials yielded very positive results that could turn Provenge into a blockbuster therapy. Dendreon is beginning to market Provenge in the U.S. on its own.

Dendreon's success over the next few years will depend both on its ability to expand capacity to keep up with demand for the drug as well as overall success of Provenge in the advanced prostate cancer market.

Business Growth

FY 2010 (ended December 31, 2010

  • Net revenue surpassed $1 million for the first time at $48 million.[1]
  • Revenue forecast for 2011 is$350 to 400 million.[2]

In 2010, Dendreon achieved FDA approval for its flagship therapy, Provenge, to treat advanced prostate cancer.[3] Revenue from sales of Provenge drove Dendreon's revenue increase in 2010, and will continue to drive Dendreon's revenue as it continues to build market share. Dendreon has yet to post a profit, and operational expenses to develop, manufacture, and market Provenge tripled to $300 million in 2010. Thomson Reuters projects an earnings loss again in 2011, but sees Dendreon becoming profitable in 2012.[4]

Pipeline

Provenge treats cancer as an active cellular immunotherapy (ACI), getting the patient's immune system to selectively attack cancer cells. Dendreon is developing the Provenge compound (Sepuleucel-T) as well as other ACI compounds for several cancer types[5]:

  • Sepuleucel-T: Dendreon currently has Sepuleucel-T, the compound behind Provenge, in Phase 2 and 3 trials for both early and advance stage Prostate cancer.
  • ACI Therapy for Breast Cancer: Dendron has a therapy that targets the Her2 receptor common in certain forms of breast cancer currently in Phase 1 trials.

Trends and Forces

Sales Growth for Provenge Will Drive Dendreon's Future Revenue

Over the next few years, virtually all of Dendreon's revenue will come from sales of its cancer drug, Provenge. Analysts predict that Provenge sales will peak at $2-3 billion, with sales in 2012 of $800 million.[6] However, the sales numbers that Dendreon is actually able to realize depend on a few factors. First, as the first cancer treatment of its kind, demand for Provenge may be difficult to predict. Second, Provenge costs $93,000 for 4 months of life extension in cancer patients, a cost that some doctors may balk at.[7] Dendreon's valuation over the next few years will be inextricably tied to the performance of Provenge.

Dendreon's Ability to Keep Up with Provenge Demand will Affect Revenue

The process of manufacturing Provenge is relatively complex, requiring treatments personalized for each patient, and Dendron may have trouble keeping up with demand. Early on, the company has seen production constraints dampen sales.[8][9] While Dendreon has added three manufacturing plants to its arsenal in order to meet demand,[10] the complexities inherent to the manufacturing process make manufacturing capacity an important indicator for Provenge's short-term sales.

Competition

Sanofi-Aventis SA (SNY): Sanofi Aventis received FDA approval for it new drug, Jevtana, to treat patients with advanced prostate cancer. Jevtana will compete with Provenge for patients, although the demand backlog for Provenge while Dendreon ramps up its capacity, will make up for any sales losses from competition.[11]

JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ): Zytiga received FDA approval for advanced prostate cancer and will compete along with Provenge and Jevtana for market share.[12]

References

  1. DNDN 2011 10K
  2. BiotechSectorInvesting DNDN Earnings
  3. FDA Approves a Cellular Immunotherapy for Men with Advanced Prostate Cancer
  4. Ahead of Earnings: Analysts Fight Over Dendreon (DNDN)
  5. Dendreon R&D
  6. Dendreon: Make or Break Year for Provenge
  7. Provenge Cancer Vaccine: Can You Put a Price on Delaying Death?
  8. Dendreon's Biggest Provenge Problem? Managing Demand
  9. Dendreon sees Provenge contraints over by year end
  10. Dendreon boosts Provenge production, treatment sites
  11. New Dendreon Competition Is Not Really Competition (DNDN, SNY)
  12. Abiraterone in Prostate Cancer, Survival Gets Even Better
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