This excerpt taken from the FNM 10-Q filed Nov 9, 2007.
Table 23: Credit Loss Performance
The decline in home prices on a national basis during the first quarter 2007 contributed to higher default rates and loss severities, causing an increase in charge-offs and foreclosed property expense for the first quarter 2007.
We experienced a substantial increase in losses recorded on delinquent loans we purchased from our MBS trusts during the third quarter of 2007, as the disruption in the mortgage credit market and the continued decline in home prices substantially reduced the fair value of the delinquent loans we purchased from our MBS trusts.
We have revised our presentation of credit losses to reflect only our realized credit losses. Accordingly, we have excluded from our credit losses, and from our credit loss ratio, any initial losses that we are required to record pursuant to SOP 03-3 when the purchase price of delinquent loans that we purchase from Fannie Mae MBS trusts exceeds the fair value of the loans at the time of purchase. These initial losses affect our provision for credit losses and are reported as a component of our charge-offs, net of recoveries in our condensed consolidated financial statements.
In our 2006 Form 10-K, we provided an estimate that our credit loss ratio for 2007 would be within a range of 4 to 6 basis points. As of the date of this filing, we believe our credit loss ratio for 2007, based on our credit losses as reported in Table 23, will remain within our normal historical average range of 4 to 6 basis points. In certain periods, we expect our credit loss ratio is likely to move outside of this historical average range, primarily due to market conditions and the risk profile of our mortgage credit book of business. We expect that, in 2008, our credit loss ratio will increase above our normal historical average range of 4 to 6 basis points.
Pursuant to our September 1, 2005 agreement with OFHEO, we agreed to disclose on a quarterly basis the estimated impact on our expected credit losses from an immediate 5% decline in single-family home prices for the entire United States, which we believe is a stressful scenario based on housing data from OFHEO. Table 24 shows our single-family credit loss sensitivity, before and after consideration of the effect of projected credit risk sharing proceeds, such as private mortgage insurance claims and other credit enhancement, as of September 30, 2007, June 30, 2007, March 31, 2007 and December 31, 2006. The significant increase in the net credit loss sensitivity that occurred during the first nine months of 2007 from the end of 2006 was primarily attributable to the decline in home prices during the first nine months of 2007.