QUOTE AND NEWS
newratings.com  Jul 2 
NEW YORK, July 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at JP Morgan downgrade First Solar (ticker: FSLR) from "overweight" to "neutral." [more]
Bull Bear Trader  Jul 2 
According to the recent TIM (Trade Ideas Monitor) report and the TIM Sentiment Index (TSI), institutional brokers became more bearish over the last five trading days as the TSI decreased 5.0% from 57.32 to 54.46 (see previous post or youDevise...
Green Stocks Central  Jul 2 
According to 24/7 Wall St, JP Morgan (JPM) is out with several solar ratings changes this morning, most notably an upgrade of Evergreen Solar (ESLR) two notches to Overweight with a doubling of the price target to $5/share.  Shares are trading up...
Motley Fool  Jul 1 
Don't let short-term poly prices distract you from fundamentals.
Invest In India  Jul 1 
Bertrand Picard and his team is all set to fly an airplane of solar impulse. The initial version of the solar plane spans 61 metres, but weighs about 1500 Kilogram (Kg). It will undergo trials providing evidence that it can fly at night. Picard...
Motley Fool  Jun 30 
The firm lays out the road ahead at its annual investor meeting.
TheStreet.com  Jun 29 
The Mad About Options crew takes a look back at Jim Cramer's comments about First Solar.
TheStreet.com  Jun 26 
Cramer likes the company because it doesn't need any subsidies to make money.
Green Stocks Central  Jun 25 
According to Barron's, First Solar's (FSLR) largest customer Phoenix Solar (according to Hapoalim Securities analyst Gordon Johnson), has issued a warning, saying not to rely on previous earnings estimates due to a continued decline in pricing for...
TheStreet.com  Jun 25 
Solar stocks see mixed results today, with First Solar ringing up as the day's big loser.
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BULLS: REASONS TO BUY

 
90% agree
 
Lower price due to increased facility

 
100% agree
 
Increasing consumer base

 
75% agree
 
The advent of CdTe gives First Solar an advantage

BEARS: REASONS TO SELL

 
60% agree
 
Low Profit Margins due to high price of Tellurium

 
66% agree
 
Priced to perfectly high multiple

 
60% agree
 
Concentrated Revenue by geography

 
FSLR AT A GLANCE
P/E 0 
EV/EBITDA 1.27VERY LOW
ROA 24.8%VERY HIGH
ROE 32.6%VERY HIGH
Debt to Equity 0.342AVG
Current Ratio 3.93AVG
Interest Coverage Ratio 396VERY HIGH
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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     Table of Contents      
Intro and Overview
     Introduction
     Company Overview
Trends and Forces
      Key Trends and Forces
Competition

First Solar makes cadmium telluride (CdTe) glass substrate based thin film photovoltaic (PV) panels, which are used to convert sunlight into electricity. Unlike other solar cell manufacturers, which produce crystalline silicon PV cells, First Solar makes CdTe thin-film PV panels on glass substrates. It is the only manufacturer to do so in volume. Although this new technology converts sunlight to electricity less efficiently than traditional silicon PV modules, thin film PV cells have an advantage in producing electricity under lower light conditions. This means that when it's cloudy or early and late in the day, First Solar's thin film PV cells are still cranking away, producing electricity while their silicon counterparts sit idle. The ability to produce electricity under a wider range of light conditions makes these cells attractive to utility companies who require stable large-scale, utility-sized renewable energy production. In addition to this advantage, producers thin-film PV modules also enjoy a major cost advantage since they are not affected by the scarcity, and subsequent rising price of polysilicon. This has helped First Solar secure $6 billion of contracted sales (3.35GW) through 2012[1] with numerous European energy utilities and solar installers. First Solar is rapidly expanding manufacturing capabilities by quadrupling manufacturing capacity from 170MW/year (2007YE) to 716 MW/year (2008YE).[2][3]

In response to growing concerns over Global Climate Change, governments (State and Federal) in the United States and Europe have passed legislation to encourage the use of solar power, often through tax subsidies, while discouraging the use of dirtier forms of power. These incentives are by no means guaranteed and in some cases are designed to phase out as our country approaches a certain level of solar usage.

First Solar's cost advantage comes largely from that its manufacturing process uses little or no polysilicon. This advantage will diminish in 2009 and 2010 as more polysilicon manufacturing capacity comes on line. Lower polysilicon prices will allow First Solar's competitors to produce their solar cells at much lower prices.

[edit] Company Overview

First Solar Revenue vs Net Income
First Solar Revenue vs Net Income[4]

[edit] First Solar's Financials

First Solar has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the past three years. Since 2004, it has more than doubled its revenue each successive year while turning a profit in 2008.

In the first quarter of 2008, First Solar saw net sales of $196.9 million - up $130 million year-on-year but down $3.9 million from 4Q07. Gross margins were 53% - down 2.3% from 4Q07. The company's backlog is worth $6 billion.

First Solar's cells cost $0.65 to $0.75 per kilowatt hour, but the company has announced a move of its production to Malaysia, which will reduce costs by $0.20 per kilowatt hour, making the solar cells more competitive with traditional energy sources that cost $0.12 per kilowatt hour.

In the second quarter of 2008, the company's conversion efficiency increased by 10 basis points, to 10.7%.[5] Production was 114.1 MW, an increase of 5% from the 1st quarter and 30% year-on-year.[5] Net sales rose 35.6% from the 1st quarter, to $267 million.[5] ASP per watt increased from $2.47 to $2.57. Operating income was $88.7 million, up from $58.1 million.[5]

In the fourth quarter of 2008, First Solar saw net sales of $433.7 million, up 24.4% quarter-on-quarter.[6] Net income was $132.8 million, up 33% from the last quarter.[7] The company was also able to lower its manufacturing costs per Watt to .98 cents, below the longtime industry milestone of $1 per Watt.[6]

It is important to note that First Solar derives a significant percentage of its revenues from a small core group of customers primarily within Europe, and specifically, Germany. International operations accounted for 95% of net sales in 2008 and 98.8% in 2007. 74% of sales in 2008 resulted from solar module sales in Germany.[8]

Losing sales in Europe could have an adverse effect on the business, but as First Solar develops additional customer relationships outside of Europe and in other markets, it will reduce the company's customer and geographic concentration and dependence.

[edit] Conversion Efficiency

Thin film PV modules are not as efficient in converting sunlight energy into usable forms of electricity, however, in specific situations such as large-scale utility-sized solar plants, thin film PV is not only cheaper but provides electricity under a variety of light conditions leading to more stable energy production. You can see the average manufacturing costs $/watt for thin film PV vs. silicon PV modules in the "Markets & Competition" section.

Industry Conversion Efficiencies
Manufacturer Current Conversion Efficiency
First Solar (CdTe Thin Film) 10.5%[9]
SunPower(Poly-Silicon) 22%[9]
Suntech Power Holdings(Poly-Silicon) 18%[10]
Sharp (Poly-Silicon) 13%[11]
Kyocera (Poly-Silicon) 18.5%[12]

(Read More about First Solar's Key Trends and Forces...)

Introduction and Overview | Trends and Forces | Competition


[edit] References

  1. First Solar, Pacific Growth Equities 2007 Clean Technology & Industrial Growth Conference
  2. First Solar 2007 Q3 Conference Call; http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/53328-first-solar-q3-2007-earnings-call-transcript
  3. First Solar Corporate Overview Q1 2009
  4. Hoover's Financial Statements- First Solar, accessed May 22, 2009
  5. 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 "First Solar, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call"
  6. 6.0 6.1 Seeking Alpha - First Solar, Inc. F4Q08 (Qtr End 12/27/2008) Earnings Call Transcript
  7. First Solar, Inc. Announces 2008 Fourth Quarter and Year-end Financial Results
  8. First Solar 10k 2008 Report Pgs. 38, 50
  9. 9.0 9.1 First Solar 2007 Q3 Conference Call; http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/53328-first-solar-q3-2007-earnings-call-transcript
  10. Forbes - Sun King; http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2006/0327/062.html
  11. SharpUSA Product Brochure; http://www.sharpusa.com/files/sol_dow_PRODUCTPROFILE.PDF
  12. Kyocera - Solar Timeline; http://kyocerasolar.com/about/timeline.html
 
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