Ford Motor Company (F)

In response to record gas prices during the summer of 2008, Ford announced plans to begin producing some of its european models (such as the Mondeo and european version of the Focus, both of which are far more efficient than Ford's current American offerings) in the United States. This offers the advantage of quickly bringing highly demanded fuel efficient cars to the U.S. market without having to invest the money and time to create an entirely new automobile.^[1]

It expects sales of small cars to increase as it tailors its North American offerings to follow its European models. “Ford already delivers the best small cars in Europe,” said Mark Fields, Ford’s president of the Americas, in a speech at a conference in Traverse City, Michigan, Reuters reported. “Now it’s North America’s turn, and we intend to deliver these small cars profitably.”

Ford's reputation has increased over the last few months, in [lieu--no!] light of Toyota recalls and other US automakers (GM and Chrysler) stuck in debt and/or bankruptcy issues. As such, this increase in name brand recognition will help propel its sales in the near term and perpetuate greater market share.

Sales are hot,,I went to three Ford dealerships friday,,one in Knoxville,Lenoir City,and Chattanooga Tn. I talked to different salesmen,,all saying the same thing,,The Ford F150 is a huge seller, the crew cab Xlt being the best seller,,the fusion Red hott,,[MOTOR TRENDS car of the year],,the Mustang is red hott,,people lining up to buy,the 305 H.P is the talk of the town! people are buying the convertibles,,the focus seems to be having competion with other lower end cars,but will sell out before years end!,,I am in the trenches on this one,people I hear at work are talking,,they are mad at GM, afraid of Japanese cars ,mainly toyota,Rates are low,rebates are good and the prices still give Ford a profit,Analysts are recomending,,Moodys upgrading,,,so to get an Auto stock,,not GM,not chyrsler,no toyotas,,Ford is the only one, the Festiva,,40 MPG,is coming in june,that means even less imports to buy!!! I see $18.00 this year......

The is a great deal of respect for Ford not relying on Bail out money. As a result many investors believe in Ford as a stable global provider of vehicles.

Ford (F): Alan Mullaly continues to pay down debt and produce cars that consumers want. Ford is still trading at a very low $14-15 per share, well below where it could trade a year from now. On a discounted cash flow basis, shares will be worth just under $30 apiece in 2012. EPS for 2011 is forecast at 113% with a five-year projection of nearly 13%. Broad trends suggest that Ford is stealthily improving its position in the competitive landscape: a consolidation of brands, a gain in market share over the past year and the shedding of debt.

On this last point, it was just announced that Ford will redeem, in cash, all 6.50% convertible trust preferred securities, effectively taking $3 billion in debt off its books and reducing total debt to $16 billion. As earnings announcements loom, these dual events could act as a catalyst to bring Ford's stockprice nearer to fair value. We use an 11% discount rate for the company.

I picked Ford as my stock choice in my Investments class. Through my research I got this: They have paid their debt and can use the extra money to invest which they have by positioning themselves in China, investing in engineering, and coming out with more fuel efficient vehicles. Ford is thinking of the post-recession consumer quite well, while at the same time working its way towards emerging markets around the world. Ford will be doing much better than GM because GM has to worry about paying back the debt it owes the government from bailing it out.

Cool thing - I got the highest holding period return in class. 37.3% in 3 months.

AS A PAST EMPLOYEE FOR 38.5 YEARS. I FOUND AND SEEN THE EFFORT THAT HAS GONE INTO THEIR PRODUCTS. ALSO THE ADVANCE PLANNING IS INCREDIBLE.

Ford Motor Co. will increase factory production 13 percent in the first quarter because of higher demand for Ford and Lincoln brand cars and trucks, and further increases are likely through the year, company executives said Sunday.

From the Associated Press - Ford Motor Co. will increase factory production 13 percent in the first quarter because of higher demand for Ford and Lincoln brand cars and trucks, and further increases are likely through the year, company executives said Sunday.

The Dearborn, Michigan, automaker said its sales to individual buyers rose 27 percent in January, a strong increase that shows demand for Ford products like the Explorer sport utility vehicle is on the rise. Ford's overall sales, including those to big fleet buyers such as rental car companies, rose 9 percent last month.

"We're trying to catch up to just the customer demand," Jim Farley, Ford's global marketing chief, told reporters at the National Automobile Dealers Association conference in San Francisco.

The first-quarter increase, to 555,000 vehicles, could mean additional jobs. U.S. sales chief Ken Czubay said Ford is studying whether to add a third shift to factories that now are on two shifts and working overtime. The company also could add production by raising the assembly line speed or by paying more overtime to extend work time.

lifelong auto executive knows buyer's appetite for stylish, durable, trustworthy, prestigious transportation. Twenty five years ago, Hollywood's coolest cars were the mercedes, the jeep wrangler, and the honda civic. Ford's line up has similar models. From the best little car (gas sipper) to the best sports utility, the mid size, and lastly the truck to blow all, I mean everyones truck off the road. The new engine is magic. One test drive and you're hooked. "little known fact" The unions still honor Edsel Ford's fairness to them. Ford is always the last to be struck...why? Edsel let the unions in the car business (kinda morphed from 1945) but nevertheless, Edsel got rid of his father's goons and fairly bargained with the working men of that time. GM lost their only genuine "car man" when lutz retired. GM is back to running by committee with a labor lawyer at the helm. They will sell some volts....to the government. The 100K guys will hide them...lol Both the Saturn and the Volt will be collectors items.....soon

I recently attended the detroit auto show and the Ford exhibit was really happening!!

Number 1 in all U>S> produced autos

Ford Motor Co. (F) said an agreement with the United Auto Workers Union will save an estimated $500 million per year in operating savings. The deal will also cut average wages and benefits to about $55 per hour in 2009, Reuters reported.

No tax payers money, just hard work the America way.

2.25% gain 4/21/2012

Ford is building better cars that last much longer. While cars are being improved they need to build fewer cars unless they can regain market share lost to Japan. They need to cause a major buying frenzy in the U.S. with a must have car. The first company to kill the gas powered car will come out on top. Michigan should take the lead from CA and be the first state to go green with a Hydrogen powered car. The jobs created during the change to Hydrogen would help bring Detroit back as the worlds MOTOR CITY.

International sales of Ford products have increased since 2000. Ford further cemented its earnings with impressive international sales numbers and news, including:

• Pre-tax profits soared 237% in Europe (from $219 million to $739 million)
• Pre-tax profits went up 127% in South America (from $113 million to $257 million).
• Pre-tax profit in the Asia/Pacific region was $1 million pre-tax profit in the Asia/Pacific region compared to a $26 million loss last year.
• Ford introduced the Ford Fiesta, an all-new global small car, at the Geneva Motor Show. It’ll be "sold in virtually all of our major worldwide markets by 2010."

"Particularly impressive was the continued strength in Europe," Calyon Securities analyst Mark Warnsman said in a research note, Reuters reported. "The outstanding result in Europe would have meant little, however, if North America had not pulled itself back to close to breakeven."

Mulally trumpeted Ford’s international sales, which he sees as an indication of future profits. "We remain committed to our key business objectives, including our goal of reaching North America and overall automotive profitability in 2009 despite the challenging economic conditions," he said.

FORD HAS A LITTLE CONCIENCE LEFT FOR INSTANCE THEY DID NOT ASK FOR A BAILOUT and they still apparently support decent wages for workers. plus happy workers make better cars.

2010 Taurus to be a big hit in the market. Great design and all the toys.

Despite the credit crunch, and the dramatic decrease in sales witnessed in FY2008 and FY2009, Ford's sales in China were actually up 61.4% year over year. China is a market which Ford has positioned itself very well in, and with its upcoming introduction of Ford Fiesta into the Chinese markets, we expect to see an even greater increase in market share.

While an upbeat economy and positive employment turnaround in the U.S. would certainly be good for Ford sales here in the U.S., Ford has terrific brand recognition across the globe that it can exploit and is not solely reliant on the domestic market in order to meet with success. Ford is in a position to capitalize on a rebounding world economy. Ford sales can be very healthy in 2010 and 2011 without having to rely on what's happening in the U.S. markets. All Ford's eggs are definitely not in one basket, and that's a good thing if you own or are thinking of owning Ford.

The family is back in the business of making cars. They recognized problems several years ago and started to correct right away.

"A momentum shift to Dearborn, MI"

Cresting near a top range today, Ford hit $9.9 a 52-week high! It’s time to take profit. Here are some highlights from the web with sources sited in the disclosure:

♦ Allen Mulally, Ford CEO hopes to leverage a community of Ford owners with other Brands-MSFT, Ironman, American Idol-Fox & the Soros Fund to augment brand recognition.

♦ The Soros fund, based in New York, bought 7.3 million shares of Ford Motor that were worth about $53 million, according to a regulatory filing made with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday and shares surged. Today is the stock’s highest point since October 2007.

♦ 2010 North American Car & Truck of the year Finalist-Fusion Hybrid and Transit Connect.

♦ The trends in monthly sales suggest the firm is not only benefiting from cost cutting but also a pickup in demand for its cars and trucks.

♦ Is it possible that halo floats over Ford from having not accepted nor have needed a government bailout money?

♦ Ford, which posted a third-quarter profit of $997 million, according to Compete Inc, the Mass research firm which studies online automobile purchase trends, stated that Toyota feel to Ford in customer consideration for the first time since 2002.

Technical analysis ~Volume 109,417,839 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence charts the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMA), one for 26 days, and the other for 12 days, and indicates price momentum. When the MACD rises above a "signal" line of a 9-day EMA, or MACDS, it indicates a buying opportunity. Sell signals are generated when MACD falls below the signal line. For Ford, MACD: 0.28008 MACDS: 0.28743 MACD2: -0.00735 EMA: 0.29 Divergence: -0.01

Relative Strength Index oscillates between 0 & 100 and measures the price momentum of a security. A reading between 70 & 80 warns users of a likely downward correction. Readings between 30 & 20 warn of an impending reversal. RSI 71.653

Stochastics measures the latest closing position in relation to the past 9 days. The stochastic oscillator, %K, uses the last close along with the highest high and lowest low over the past 9-day period. A 5-day simple moving average of %k acts as a signal line and label on the charts as %d. Both %K and %D oscillate between 0 and 100%. Overbought and oversold zones are designated as both 80% and 20% When discussing Ford, the current %K:88.44 and %D:85.4. This could be an indication that relative to current time, Ford is approaching the overbought zone as it is over 8% above the after mentioned %K. %J:79.3

ROC or rate of change is a 1-day oscillator that fluctuates above and below zero measuring the percent change in the most recent prices versus the price 1 day ago. The higher the ROC, the more overbought the security is, the lower the ROC, the more over-sold. A "sell" signal occurs when the ROC trends down while the price of the security rises. The inverse suggests a "buy" signal. In relation to Ford, the current ROC=3.4141

F vs. TM

Effectively, Ford closed the quality gap with Toyota last year, 2008. The real task is to translate this triumph to customers and reform a customer perception “that quality only exist in import cars”, namely Toyota Motors. Changing is coming, change is now! Evidence of this change is in what is called, “purchase consideration” or the intent of a customer to buy one brand over another. Purchase consideration is falling for Toyota's Camry-13.2% in 2009 vs. 15.7% in 2008 and rising for the Ford Fusion 6.7% 2009 vs. 3.5% 2008.

Disclosure: Last year, during the bank run of the Great Recession I sold Ford cars @ Island Ford, Staten Island, NY. Layoff occurred, then the dealership wast consolidated with another Lincoln/Mercury shop in the area, during the Spring of 2009. My information sources: fordvehicles.com, google.com/finance, autonews.com, bloomberg.com, wikipedia.com, wikiinvest.com, investopedia.com, stockcharts.com, and seekingalpha.com

Ford is making 2 concerted push for Asia.

1. On 10/22/09, Ford unveiled a new low-cost small car specifically developed for Asia that will be built at a newly expanded Indian plant. The vehicle, called the Figo (pronounced fee-go), will be sold in India and exported to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region
2. On 10/24/09, Ford announced plans to open its third assembly plant in China. 

The two moves will increase Ford's production capacity in the fastest growing region in the global auto industry, and will give the company a new car that is priced and sized for buyers across Asia.

References

"Ford Makes Push to Boost Asian Presence" Article from Wall Street Journal

Shoppers are becoming aware of improved quality and value. They are drawn to the improved choices of fuel efficient, attractive vehicles with proven quality. Media recognition and reviews are far more positive now

Ford has a good chance of gaining share on domestic automaker GM. They must use aggressive tactics to do this, but it is a very acheivable goal. According to Deutsche Bank, the earliest GM could turn profitable would be 2011, giving Ford plenty of time to pull ahead in the market. Deutsche Bank also said that Ford could reach a break-even point as early as later in 2009 if it maintained its current pace in reducing costs and gaining market share. The company has already narrowed its operating loss by two-thirds in the second quarter of 2009 from a year earlier, far better than forecasted, to $638 million (21 cents a share) from 63 cents a share in the year-ago quarter.

Ford was the only Big 3 US government automaker which did not take government bailout money. Its internal forecasts breaking even in 2011, for the first time since 2004.

By avoiding the route of it's North American rivals - a state sponsored bankruptcy - Ford's business operations are not at risk of being subjected to political interference. Ford does not have the luxury of shedding it's inconvenient liabilities a la Chrysler and GM; however, it does not have to answer to an "Auto Task Force". Obviously, this bullish justification is contingent upon Ford's ability to avoid further financial troubles down the road.

With GM and Chrysler on the government handout line with no end in sight, Ford is the only independent manufacturer left. Not taking money from the government will allow Ford to manage its business more nimbly with fewer restrictions or conditions imposed by the government. Furthermore, around 70 percent of Americans have expressed hesitancy in purchasing a new vehicle from a government owned car company, clearly a condition that should bring crowds of new buyers into Ford's showrooms.

New CEO Alan Mulally has already observed several inefficiencies in Ford's operations. Ford could save over $15 billion if it could duplicate GM's fixed cost per unit of $6,060 compared to $8,400. He has aggressively cut costs by $1.7 billion, including $1.2 billion in North America.

All totaled, Ford has cut 46,300 jobs in North America in the past two years, Reuters reported. And last year, it negotiated a new contract the United Auto Workers union. The company could make even more progress in the second quarter, because it won’t have to worry about a one-time $416 million charge that reflected money Ford spent just to reduce expenses. Also the company expects to close its $2.3 billion sale of the Jaguar and Land Rover brands to Tata Motors in the next three months.

Ford Motor Co. (F) said in March 2009 that it has reduced its automotive debt by $9.9 billion, or 38%. The debt reduction will trim more than $500 million from the carmaker’s annual cash interest expense, Reuters reported.

Great long term outlook with innovative changes with tight focus and dynamic leadership. 10 bagger at the very least from here

In testimony to Congress given in late 2008, CEO's of GM, Ford, and Chrysler each submitted and explained their bailout requests from the Federal Government. GM reported that it will have to cease operations unless it gets $4 billion immediately, and $18 billion in longer term financing.^[1] Chrysler is in a similarly dire state, claiming to need $7 billion before year end. Ford appears to be in a relatively better position, claiming that it will not need to draw on government support unless business conditions deteriorate further.^[2] Nevertheless, Ford is still requesting $9 billion in loan guarantees as a hedge.^[3]

Similarly, while Ford's sales fell 31% in November 2008, GM's sales fell 41%, Toyota's dropped 34%, Honda's 32%, and Nissan's a whopping 42%. In relative terms then, Ford's aggressively updated line-up seems to be holding its own against domestic and foreign competitors.^[4]

More to come for electronic throttle problems, the real cause for most "unintended acceleration" incidents.

Despite the credit crunch, and the dramatic decrease in sales witnessed in FY2008 and FY2009, Ford's sales in China were actually up 61.4% year over year. China is a market which Ford has positioned itself very well in, and with its upcoming introduction of Ford Fiesta into the Chinese markets, we expect to see an even greater increase in market share.

FORD went to the commercial loan well in 2006 and "hocked" their very soul and borrowed approximately $26 BILLION to POSSIBLY be profitable in 2011.

Is it me or should I wait till mid-2010 to buy FORD?