Ford Motor Company (F)

In response to record gas prices during the summer of 2008, Ford announced plans to begin producing some of its european models (such as the Mondeo and european version of the Focus, both of which are far more efficient than Ford's current American offerings) in the United States. This offers the advantage of quickly bringing highly demanded fuel efficient cars to the U.S. market without having to invest the money and time to create an entirely new automobile.^[1]

It expects sales of small cars to increase as it tailors its North American offerings to follow its European models. “Ford already delivers the best small cars in Europe,” said Mark Fields, Ford’s president of the Americas, in a speech at a conference in Traverse City, Michigan, Reuters reported. “Now it’s North America’s turn, and we intend to deliver these small cars profitably.”

With GM and Chrysler on the government handout line with no end in sight, Ford is the only independent manufacturer left. Not taking money from the government will allow Ford to manage its business more nimbly with fewer restrictions or conditions imposed by the government. Furthermore, around 70 percent of Americans have expressed hesitancy in purchasing a new vehicle from a government owned car company, clearly a condition that should bring crowds of new buyers into Ford's showrooms.

Ford is building better cars that last much longer. While cars are being improved they need to build fewer cars unless they can regain market share lost to Japan. They need to cause a major buying frenzy in the U.S. with a must have car. The first company to kill the gas powered car will come out on top. Michigan should take the lead from CA and be the first state to go green with a Hydrogen powered car. The jobs created during the change to Hydrogen would help bring Detroit back as the worlds MOTOR CITY.

New CEO Alan Mulally has already observed several inefficiencies in Ford's operations. Ford could save over $15 billion if it could duplicate GM's fixed cost per unit of $6,060 compared to $8,400. He has aggressively cut costs by $1.7 billion, including $1.2 billion in North America.

All totaled, Ford has cut 46,300 jobs in North America in the past two years, Reuters reported. And last year, it negotiated a new contract the United Auto Workers union. The company could make even more progress in the second quarter, because it won’t have to worry about a one-time $416 million charge that reflected money Ford spent just to reduce expenses. Also the company expects to close its $2.3 billion sale of the Jaguar and Land Rover brands to Tata Motors in the next three months.

Ford Motor Co. (F) said in March 2009 that it has reduced its automotive debt by $9.9 billion, or 38%. The debt reduction will trim more than $500 million from the carmaker’s annual cash interest expense, Reuters reported.

Great long term outlook with innovative changes with tight focus and dynamic leadership. 10 bagger at the very least from here

In testimony to Congress given in late 2008, CEO's of GM, Ford, and Chrysler each submitted and explained their bailout requests from the Federal Government. GM reported that it will have to cease operations unless it gets $4 billion immediately, and $18 billion in longer term financing.^[1] Chrysler is in a similarly dire state, claiming to need $7 billion before year end. Ford appears to be in a relatively better position, claiming that it will not need to draw on government support unless business conditions deteriorate further.^[2] Nevertheless, Ford is still requesting $9 billion in loan guarantees as a hedge.^[3]

Similarly, while Ford's sales fell 31% in November 2008, GM's sales fell 41%, Toyota's dropped 34%, Honda's 32%, and Nissan's a whopping 42%. In relative terms then, Ford's aggressively updated line-up seems to be holding its own against domestic and foreign competitors.^[4]

International sales of Ford products have increased since 2000. Ford further cemented its earnings with impressive international sales numbers and news, including:

• Pre-tax profits soared 237% in Europe (from $219 million to $739 million)
• Pre-tax profits went up 127% in South America (from $113 million to $257 million).
• Pre-tax profit in the Asia/Pacific region was $1 million pre-tax profit in the Asia/Pacific region compared to a $26 million loss last year.
• Ford introduced the Ford Fiesta, an all-new global small car, at the Geneva Motor Show. It’ll be "sold in virtually all of our major worldwide markets by 2010."

"Particularly impressive was the continued strength in Europe," Calyon Securities analyst Mark Warnsman said in a research note, Reuters reported. "The outstanding result in Europe would have meant little, however, if North America had not pulled itself back to close to breakeven."

Mulally trumpeted Ford’s international sales, which he sees as an indication of future profits. "We remain committed to our key business objectives, including our goal of reaching North America and overall automotive profitability in 2009 despite the challenging economic conditions," he said.

More to come for electronic throttle problems, the real cause for most "unintended acceleration" incidents.

Despite the credit crunch, and the dramatic decrease in sales witnessed in FY2008 and FY2009, Ford's sales in China were actually up 61.4% year over year. China is a market which Ford has positioned itself very well in, and with its upcoming introduction of Ford Fiesta into the Chinese markets, we expect to see an even greater increase in market share.

Despite the credit crunch, and the dramatic decrease in sales witnessed in FY2008 and FY2009, Ford's sales in China were actually up 61.4% year over year. China is a market which Ford has positioned itself very well in, and with its upcoming introduction of Ford Fiesta into the Chinese markets, we expect to see an even greater increase in market share.

While an upbeat economy and positive employment turnaround in the U.S. would certainly be good for Ford sales here in the U.S., Ford has terrific brand recognition across the globe that it can exploit and is not solely reliant on the domestic market in order to meet with success. Ford is in a position to capitalize on a rebounding world economy. Ford sales can be very healthy in 2010 and 2011 without having to rely on what's happening in the U.S. markets. All Ford's eggs are definitely not in one basket, and that's a good thing if you own or are thinking of owning Ford.

The family is back in the business of making cars. They recognized problems several years ago and started to correct right away.

FORD HAS A LITTLE CONCIENCE LEFT FOR INSTANCE THEY DID NOT ASK FOR A BAILOUT and they still apparently support decent wages for workers. plus happy workers make better cars.

"A momentum shift to Dearborn, MI"

Cresting near a top range today, Ford hit $9.9 a 52-week high! It’s time to take profit. Here are some highlights from the web with sources sited in the disclosure:

♦ Allen Mulally, Ford CEO hopes to leverage a community of Ford owners with other Brands-MSFT, Ironman, American Idol-Fox & the Soros Fund to augment brand recognition.

♦ The Soros fund, based in New York, bought 7.3 million shares of Ford Motor that were worth about $53 million, according to a regulatory filing made with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday and shares surged. Today is the stock’s highest point since October 2007.

♦ 2010 North American Car & Truck of the year Finalist-Fusion Hybrid and Transit Connect.

♦ The trends in monthly sales suggest the firm is not only benefiting from cost cutting but also a pickup in demand for its cars and trucks.

♦ Is it possible that halo floats over Ford from having not accepted nor have needed a government bailout money?

♦ Ford, which posted a third-quarter profit of $997 million, according to Compete Inc, the Mass research firm which studies online automobile purchase trends, stated that Toyota feel to Ford in customer consideration for the first time since 2002.

Technical analysis ~Volume 109,417,839 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence charts the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMA), one for 26 days, and the other for 12 days, and indicates price momentum. When the MACD rises above a "signal" line of a 9-day EMA, or MACDS, it indicates a buying opportunity. Sell signals are generated when MACD falls below the signal line. For Ford, MACD: 0.28008 MACDS: 0.28743 MACD2: -0.00735 EMA: 0.29 Divergence: -0.01

Relative Strength Index oscillates between 0 & 100 and measures the price momentum of a security. A reading between 70 & 80 warns users of a likely downward correction. Readings between 30 & 20 warn of an impending reversal. RSI 71.653

Stochastics measures the latest closing position in relation to the past 9 days. The stochastic oscillator, %K, uses the last close along with the highest high and lowest low over the past 9-day period. A 5-day simple moving average of %k acts as a signal line and label on the charts as %d. Both %K and %D oscillate between 0 and 100%. Overbought and oversold zones are designated as both 80% and 20% When discussing Ford, the current %K:88.44 and %D:85.4. This could be an indication that relative to current time, Ford is approaching the overbought zone as it is over 8% above the after mentioned %K. %J:79.3

ROC or rate of change is a 1-day oscillator that fluctuates above and below zero measuring the percent change in the most recent prices versus the price 1 day ago. The higher the ROC, the more overbought the security is, the lower the ROC, the more over-sold. A "sell" signal occurs when the ROC trends down while the price of the security rises. The inverse suggests a "buy" signal. In relation to Ford, the current ROC=3.4141

F vs. TM

Effectively, Ford closed the quality gap with Toyota last year, 2008. The real task is to translate this triumph to customers and reform a customer perception “that quality only exist in import cars”, namely Toyota Motors. Changing is coming, change is now! Evidence of this change is in what is called, “purchase consideration” or the intent of a customer to buy one brand over another. Purchase consideration is falling for Toyota's Camry-13.2% in 2009 vs. 15.7% in 2008 and rising for the Ford Fusion 6.7% 2009 vs. 3.5% 2008.

Disclosure: Last year, during the bank run of the Great Recession I sold Ford cars @ Island Ford, Staten Island, NY. Layoff occurred, then the dealership wast consolidated with another Lincoln/Mercury shop in the area, during the Spring of 2009. My information sources: fordvehicles.com, google.com/finance, autonews.com, bloomberg.com, wikipedia.com, wikiinvest.com, investopedia.com, stockcharts.com, and seekingalpha.com

Number 1 in all U>S> produced autos

Ford is making 2 concerted push for Asia.

1. On 10/22/09, Ford unveiled a new low-cost small car specifically developed for Asia that will be built at a newly expanded Indian plant. The vehicle, called the Figo (pronounced fee-go), will be sold in India and exported to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region
2. On 10/24/09, Ford announced plans to open its third assembly plant in China. 

The two moves will increase Ford's production capacity in the fastest growing region in the global auto industry, and will give the company a new car that is priced and sized for buyers across Asia.

References

"Ford Makes Push to Boost Asian Presence" Article from Wall Street Journal

Shoppers are becoming aware of improved quality and value. They are drawn to the improved choices of fuel efficient, attractive vehicles with proven quality. Media recognition and reviews are far more positive now

Ford has a good chance of gaining share on domestic automaker GM. They must use aggressive tactics to do this, but it is a very acheivable goal. According to Deutsche Bank, the earliest GM could turn profitable would be 2011, giving Ford plenty of time to pull ahead in the market. Deutsche Bank also said that Ford could reach a break-even point as early as later in 2009 if it maintained its current pace in reducing costs and gaining market share. The company has already narrowed its operating loss by two-thirds in the second quarter of 2009 from a year earlier, far better than forecasted, to $638 million (21 cents a share) from 63 cents a share in the year-ago quarter.

Ford was the only Big 3 US government automaker which did not take government bailout money. Its internal forecasts breaking even in 2011, for the first time since 2004.

By avoiding the route of it's North American rivals - a state sponsored bankruptcy - Ford's business operations are not at risk of being subjected to political interference. Ford does not have the luxury of shedding it's inconvenient liabilities a la Chrysler and GM; however, it does not have to answer to an "Auto Task Force". Obviously, this bullish justification is contingent upon Ford's ability to avoid further financial troubles down the road.

Ford Motor Co. (F) said an agreement with the United Auto Workers Union will save an estimated $500 million per year in operating savings. The deal will also cut average wages and benefits to about $55 per hour in 2009, Reuters reported.

2010 Taurus to be a big hit in the market. Great design and all the toys.

FORD went to the commercial loan well in 2006 and "hocked" their very soul and borrowed approximately $26 BILLION to POSSIBLY be profitable in 2011.

Is it me or should I wait till mid-2010 to buy FORD?