GSK » Topics » Outlook

This excerpt taken from the GSK 20-F filed Feb 29, 2008.

Outlook

Sales growth of existing products and launches of new products are key drivers of GSK’s business. The sales growth from key products such as Seretide/Advair, vaccines, Valtrex and the high potential products, Avodart, Arixtra and Boniva is expected to continue in 2008. Sales growth is also expected from newer products Lovaza, Cervarix, Tykerb/Tyverb, Rotarix, Veramyst/Avamys and Altabax/ Altargo. Sales growth of Avandia, GSK’s product for diabetes, has been adversely impacted following publication in May 2007 of a meta-analysis.

Typically, sales of existing products decline dramatically when generic competition is introduced either on patent expiry or earlier if there is a successful challenge to the Group’s patent. In 2007, generic competitors to Coreg IR entered the US market. Several other products will become exposed to generic competition in the USA during 2008, including Wellbutrin XL 150mg, Requip IR, Lamictal IR, Paxil CR and Imitrex. GSK is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the validity and infringement of the Group’s patents relating to many of its products. These are discussed in ‘Risk factors’ below and in Note 44 to the financial statements, ‘Legal proceedings’.

GSK expects a sustained flow of new products in the next two years. Thirteen new product opportunities are currently filed with regulators; these include Promacta (USA), Rotarix (USA), Treximet (USA) and Synflorix (EU and International). GSK currently has 34 key assets in phase III development/registration.

In its published earnings guidance for 2008 GSK expects that the impact of lower Avandia sales, together with increase generic competition, will lead to a mid-single digit percentage decline in business performance EPS, at constant exchange rates.

There are risks and uncertainties inherent in the business that may affect future performance including R&D projects, anticipated sales growth and expected earnings growth. These are discussed in ‘Risk factors ‘ below.

This excerpt taken from the GSK 6-K filed Mar 22, 2007.
2007 outlook
Sales growth of existing products and launch of new products are key drivers of GSK’s business performance. The sales growth seen from key products such as Seretide/Advair, the Avandia group of products, vaccines, Lamictal, Valtrex, Coreg and the rising stars – Requip, Avodart and Boniva/Bonviva – is expected to continue in 2007 although this is likely to be offset by declines in Zofran, Flonase and Wellbutrin due to generic competition.

Five major new pharmaceutical product launches are expected in 2007. These include Tykerb, for breast cancer, Cervarix, for cervical cancer (in Europe), Allermist/Avamys, for allergic rhinitis, Coreg CR, for heart conditions, and Trexima, for migraine.

GSK’s consumer brand portfolio will be strengthened further in 2007, with the launch of 10 products, including alli, a new treatment for weight-loss in the US.

Several new products are expected to be filed for approval with the regulatory authorities in 2007, including vaccine opportunities: US filing of Cervarix, Rotarix, for rotavirus, and the European filing of Synflorix, a vaccine against meningitis, pneumonia and otitis. GSK continues to progress the development of vaccines for use before, and in the event of, a flu pandemic. In January 2007, GSK submitted its H5N1 vaccine to European regulators for approval for pre-pandemic use.

GSK now has 31 major product opportunities in phase III development or registration, comprising 13 new chemical entities (NCEs), 6 new vaccines and 12 product line extensions (PLEs).

GSK’s published earnings guidance for 2007 is that earnings per share growth is expected to be 8% to 10% in CER terms.

EPS 95.5 pence, growth of 19%

This excerpt taken from the GSK 20-F filed Mar 2, 2007.

Outlook

Sales growth of existing products and launch of new products are key drivers of GSK’s business performance. The sales growth seen from key products such as Seretide/Advair, the Avandia group of products, Vaccines, Lamictal, Valtrex, Coreg and the high potential products, Requip, Avodart and Boniva is expected to continue in 2007.

Typically, sales of existing products decline dramatically when generic competition is introduced either on patent expiry or earlier if there is a successful challenge to the Group’s patent. In Q4 2006, generic competitors to Wellbutrin XL 300mg tablet (approximately 60% of Wellbutrin sales) and Zofran entered the US market. GSK is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the validity and infringement of the Group’s patents relating to many of its products. These are discussed in ‘Risk factors’ below and in Note 43 to the financial statements, ‘Legal proceedings’.

Five major new pharmaceutical product launches are expected in 2007. These include Tykerb, for breast cancer, Cervarix, for cervical cancer (in Europe), Allermist, for allergic rhinitis, Coreg CR, for heart failure and Trexima, for migraine.

GSK also expects to launch several other important products during the year including: Arixtra, to treat acute coronary syndromes (ACS); Altabax/Altargo, for skin infections, and Entereg, for the management of post-operative ileus.

GSK’s consumer brand portfolio will be strengthened further in 2007, with the launch of 10 products, including alli, a new treatment for weight-loss in the USA. Two more brands, Breathe Right, nasal strips and FiberChoice, dietary fibre supplements, were added to the portfolio, following the acquisition of CNS, Inc. which was completed in December 2006.

Several new products are expected to be filed for approval with the regulatory authorities in 2007, including vaccine opportunities: US filing of Cervarix, for cervical cancer and Rotarix, for rotavirus and the European filing of Synflorix, a vaccine for pneumococcal disease. GSK continues to progress development of vaccines for use before, and in the event of, a ’flu pandemic. In January 2007, GSK submitted its H5N1 vaccine to European regulators for approval for pre-pandemic use.

GSK now has 31 major product opportunities in phase III development or registration, comprising 13 NCEs, 6 new vaccines and 12 product line extensions.

GSK’s published earnings guidance for 2007 is that earnings per share growth is expected to be 8% to 10% in CER terms.

The Group has net debt of £2.5 billion, which is low relative to its market capitalisation, and this positions it to take advantage of any opportunities that might arise to build the business.

There are risks and uncertainties inherent in the business that may affect future performance including R&D projects, anticipated sales growth and expected earnings growth. These are discussed in ‘Risk factors ‘ below.

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