QUOTE AND NEWS
Market Intelligence Center  Jul 23  Comment 
After Wednesday’s trading in Guess Inc. (GES) MarketIntelligenceCenter.com's patented algorithms uncovered a trade that offers a 6.02% return or 14.86% on an annualized basis (for comparison purposes only), while providing 8.39% downside...
TheStreet.com  Jul 15  Comment 
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Guess? Inc  were spiking, sharply up 8.65% to $22.99 in early market trading Wednesday, after the apparel company was upgraded by analysts at Telsey Advisory this morning. The firm upgraded Guess to "market...
Benzinga  Jul 15  Comment 
In a report published Wednesday, Evercore analyst Omar Saad upgraded the rating on Guess?, Inc. (NYSE: GES) from Sell to Hold, while raising the target price to $22, following the announcement that CEO Pail Marciano is to step down in August and...
newratings.com  Jul 14  Comment 
WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Paul Marciano, co-founder and chief executive officer of fashion house Guess? Inc (GES), on Tuesday said he has chosen Inditex executive Victor Herrero as his successor, effective August 2015. As part of the reshufftle,...
TheStreet.com  Jul 6  Comment 
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Guess? Inc. was upgraded to "neutral" from "underweight" at Piper Jaffray this morning. The firm said it raised its rating on the designer and retailer of apparel and accessories based on improving trends in Europe....
Market Intelligence Center  Jun 23  Comment 
The patented option-trade picking algorithms that power MarketIntelligenceCenter.com's Artificial Intelligence Center are highlighting two trades on Guess Inc. (GES) today after it closed at $19.71 on Monday. For more conservative investors, look...
TheStreet.com  Jun 3  Comment 
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Guess Inc  were higher by 0.66% to $27.51 on heavy volume in early market trading Wednesday, after the fashion apparel company released its first quarter earnings results after the market closed yesterday....
Motley Fool  Jun 3  Comment 
The jeans retailer defied expectations for a modest loss and upgraded its guidance for the full fiscal year.
newratings.com  Jun 2  Comment 
WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - International fashion house Guess?, Inc. (GES) said Tuesday after the markets closed that it swung to a first quarter profit, as better costs control helped offset an 8.4% drop in revenue. The company's quarterly...
TheStreet.com  Jun 2  Comment 
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Guess shares are down 0.54% to $18.55 in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the company released its first quarter earnings results after the closing bell today.The Los Angeles-CA-based apparel manufacturer reported...




 
TOP CONTRIBUTORS

A pioneer in the designer jeans industry, Guess? (NYSE: GES). makes a variety of fashion-conscious men's and women's clothing. You can find Guess? in over 350 retail stores through out the U.S. and Europe, not to mention popular department stores like Macy's and Bloomingdale's. The company also distributes its clothing through its website.

Guess? was one of the most popular denim brands of the 1980s. The company ran into a few issues, however, during the 1990s: namely pricing pressure from department stores and a trend towards baggier jeans. The latter is decidedly at odds with Guess' more European style. As Guess? struggled to adjust to changing market conditions, competing brands like, Polo Ralph Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, and Calvin Klein were poised to capitalize on the company's weakness.

In an effort to turn around its flagging fortunes, the company has begun a major push into Europe. The company's presence on the continent continues to grow rapidly; its European revenues which increased by a factor of 9 from 2003 through 2006 [1] and it expects to increase its number of European retail stores by more than 33% by the end of 2007. Guess? is also focusing on improving its margins by shifting its jeanswear business towards retail and concentrating on trendier(read higher-priced) offerings.

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Trends and Forces

Dependency on Department Stores

Department stores in the United States have undergone significant changes in recent years. In response to declining margins, stores have implemented tighter inventory controls and have scaled back the quantities of merchandise that they purchase and/or license from companies like Guess?. As a means of increasing market share, companies have also sought to differentiate themselves from the competition by demanding exclusive contracts and store-specific private labels (e.g. Ralph Lauren's "American Living" line for J.C. Penney). [2] Such dealings could weaken the control Guess? has over its brand's image.

In addition, a series of mergers and acquisitions in the industry (e.g. Federated Department Stores' 2005 takeover of Marshall Field's) give the businesses that remain potentially greater power to negotiate lower prices with Guess?, thereby lowering profit margins. For example by 2002, department stores had forced brands like Guess? to slash their prices, reducing the average price of a pair of jeans by over 50%.[3] However, Guess? may be less vulnerable to such changes as it has increased its retail operations and is now less dependent on wholesale business.

Volatility of Fashion Trends

Trends in the fashion world tend to change very quickly. Consumer tastes can vary widely from one season to the next, leading to large swings in a company's profits. As Guess? seeks to increase earnings by producing cutting-edge styles, it opens itself up to the significant risk that comes with following trends. Guess? has already experienced this firsthand, when its extremely popular jeanswear failed to transition from the skinny denim silhouette of the eighties to the baggy, urban fit of the nineties.

U.S. Economic Conditions

As over two-thirds of Guess? revenue comes from its North American operations, its bottom line is susceptible to shifts in the region's economy, especially in the United States. As rocky economic forecasts tend to damper consumer spending, the company's recent rapid growth could decline. However, as Guess? seeks to expand its growth abroad, the brand's significant international business may serve as a hedge against decreases in domestic consumer spending. With the dollar at record-low levels against the euro, the company's strong European earnings may look even attractive on its U.S. balance sheets for some time to come.

==Competilike Gap base their business on providing wardrobe basics. Brands like Polo Ralph Lauren supply consumers with a fuller range of both wardrobe staples and trendier apparel.

Within the denim business, Guess? faces fierce competition from very popular brands like Seven For All Mankind, True Religion, and Diesel. Guess? is increasingly following the industry trend towards higher-end jeanswear as it increases both the quality and the price of its denim.

Guess? vs. Competitors(2006)[4]
Guess? Gap Polo Ralph Lauren Levi Strauss & Co. [5]
Revenue (ttm) $1.47B $16.03B $4.54B $4.19B
Net income (ttm) $157.71M $759.00M $387.30M $239.00B
Quarterly revenue growth (yoy) 48.20% -0.10% 11.30% -
Gross margin (ttm) 44.82% 35.33% 54.12% 47.00%
Operating margin (ttm) 16.78% 7.57% 14.22% 15.00%
Change in same-store sales [6] 16.2%[7] 0%[8] 7.9% [9] -


  1. Guess? 2005 10K (released March 13, 2006) p. 7 and Guess? 2006 10K (released March 1, 2007) p. 7
  2. "Top fashion designers go down-market", USA Today (published September 25, 2007)
  3. How Guess Got Its Groove Back, BusinessWeek' (December 18, 2006)
  4. Unless otherwise noted, these figures were taken from Yahoo! Finance.
  5. Data from the company's 2006 10-K(released February 13, 2007)
  6. Figures compare Q2 2007 sales to Q2 2006 sales.
  7. Guess? press release: "GUESS?, INC. REPORTS RECORD SECOND QUARTER 2008 REVENUES", (released September 4, 2007)
  8. Gap press release: "GAP INC. REPORTS SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS PER SHARE OF $0.19", (released August 23, 2007)
  9. Polo Ralph Lauren Wikinvest article



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