Hasbro (HAS)

For the first six months of 2009, U.S. toy sales fell 2% from $7.95 billion a year ago to $7.81 billion. This can be attributed to the economic downturn and national increase in unemployment. Analysts are predicting that holiday sales will be flat, if not negative.

Hasbro's licensing agreement with Marvel is expensive, guaranteeing Marvel a minimum of $205 million over 5 years, regardless of toy sales. Weaker than expected sales of Marvel products or continued delays of movie release dates will delay expected revenue from the deal.

While the 2006 release of Monopoly: Here and Now generated strong sales, Hasbro's lack of innovative new games could result in a loss of market share to brands such as Cranium.

HAS stock prices already anticipate strong sales of Spider-Man and Transformers products in advance of summer movie releases. Stronger than expected ticket sales for the Ghost Rider film did not translate into higher toy sales, and there's a good possibility that the Transformers movie will enhance sales of movie-related toys at the expense of existing product lines, with little or no net increase in Transformers sales.