HSY » Topics » Sensitivity Analysis

These excerpts taken from the HSY 10-K filed Feb 20, 2009.

Sensitivity Analysis

The following sensitivity analysis reflects our market risk to a hypothetical adverse market price movement of ten percent, based on our net commodity positions at four dates spaced equally throughout the year. Our net commodity positions consist of the amount of futures contracts we hold over or under the amount of futures contracts we need to price unpriced physical forward contracts for the same commodities. Inventories, priced forward contracts and estimated anticipated purchases not yet under contract were not included in the sensitivity analysis calculations. We define a loss, for purposes of determining market risk, as the potential decrease in fair value or the opportunity cost resulting from the hypothetical adverse price movement. The fair values of net commodity positions reflect quoted market prices or estimated future prices, including estimated carrying costs corresponding with the future delivery period.

 

For the years ended December 31,

   2008    2007
     Fair
Value
    Market Risk
(Hypothetical
10% Change)
   Fair
Value
    Market Risk
(Hypothetical
10% Change)
In millions of dollars                      

Highest long position

   $ (357.1 )   $ 35.7    $ (112.5 )   $ 11.3

Lowest long position

     (574.1 )     57.4      (460.9 )     46.1

Average position (long)

     (440.6 )     44.1      (317.0 )     31.7

 

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Table of Contents

The decrease in fair values from 2007 to 2008 primarily reflected a decrease in net commodity positions, which more than offset the impact of higher prices in 2008. The negative positions primarily resulted as unpriced physical forward contract futures requirements exceeded the amount of commodities futures that we held at certain points in time during the years.

Sensitivity analysis disclosures represent forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those presently anticipated or projected. Factors that could affect the sensitivity analysis disclosures include:

 

   

significant increases or decreases in market prices reflecting fluctuations attributable to the effect of weather on crop yield;

 

   

imbalances between supply and demand;

 

   

currency exchange rates;

 

   

political unrest in producing countries;

 

   

speculative influences; and

 

   

changes in our hedging strategies.

Sensitivity Analysis

STYLE="margin-top:6px;margin-bottom:0px; text-indent:4%">The following sensitivity analysis reflects our market risk to a hypothetical adverse market price movement of ten percent, based on our net commodity
positions at four dates spaced equally throughout the year. Our net commodity positions consist of the amount of futures contracts we hold over or under the amount of futures contracts we need to price unpriced physical forward contracts for the
same commodities. Inventories, priced forward contracts and estimated anticipated purchases not yet under contract were not included in the sensitivity analysis calculations. We define a loss, for purposes of determining market risk, as the
potential decrease in fair value or the opportunity cost resulting from the hypothetical adverse price movement. The fair values of net commodity positions reflect quoted market prices or estimated future prices, including estimated carrying costs
corresponding with the future delivery period.

 








































































































For the years ended December 31,

  2008  2007
   Fair
Value
  Market Risk
(Hypothetical
FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="1">10% Change)
  Fair
Value
  Market Risk
(Hypothetical
FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="1">10% Change)
In millions of dollars            

Highest long position

  $(357.1) $35.7  $(112.5) $11.3

Lowest long position

   (574.1)  57.4   (460.9)  46.1

Average position (long)

   (440.6)  44.1   (317.0)  31.7

 


39







Table of Contents


The decrease in fair values from 2007 to 2008 primarily reflected a decrease in net commodity positions,
which more than offset the impact of higher prices in 2008. The negative positions primarily resulted as unpriced physical forward contract futures requirements exceeded the amount of commodities futures that we held at certain points in time during
the years.

Sensitivity analysis disclosures represent forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that
could cause our actual results to differ materially from those presently anticipated or projected. Factors that could affect the sensitivity analysis disclosures include:

STYLE="font-size:6px;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"> 







  

significant increases or decreases in market prices reflecting fluctuations attributable to the effect of weather on crop yield;

STYLE="font-size:6px;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:0px"> 







  

imbalances between supply and demand;

 







  

currency exchange rates;

 







  

political unrest in producing countries;

 







  

speculative influences; and

 







  

changes in our hedging strategies.

This excerpt taken from the HSY 10-K filed Feb 19, 2008.

Sensitivity Analysis

The following sensitivity analysis reflects our market risk to a hypothetical adverse market price movement of ten percent, based on our net commodity positions at four dates spaced equally throughout the year. Our net commodity positions consist of the amount of futures contracts we hold over or under the amount of futures contracts we need to price unpriced physical forward contracts for the same commodities. Inventories, priced forward contracts and estimated anticipated purchases not yet under contract were not included in the sensitivity analysis calculations. We define a loss, for purposes of determining market risk, as the potential decrease in fair value or the opportunity cost resulting from the hypothetical adverse price movement. The fair values of net commodity positions reflect quoted market prices or estimated future prices, including estimated carrying costs corresponding with the future delivery period.

 

For the years ended December 31,

   2007    2006
     Fair
Value
    Market Risk
(Hypothetical
10% Change)
   Fair
Value
    Market Risk
(Hypothetical
10% Change)
In millions of dollars                      

Highest long position

   $ (112.5 )   $ 11.3    $ 138.4     $ 13.8

Lowest long position

     (460.9 )     46.1      (147.0 )     14.7

Average position (long)

     (317.0 )     31.7      (37.3 )     3.7

The decrease in fair values from 2006 to 2007 primarily reflected a decrease in net commodity positions, which more than offset the impact of higher prices in 2007. The negative positions primarily resulted as unpriced physical forward contract futures requirements exceeded the amount of commodities futures that we held at certain points in time during the years.

Sensitivity analysis disclosures represent forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those presently anticipated or projected. Factors that could affect the sensitivity analysis disclosures include:

 

   

significant increases or decreases in market prices reflecting fluctuations attributable to the effect of weather on crop yield;

 

   

imbalances between supply and demand;

 

   

currency exchange rates;

 

   

political unrest in producing countries;

 

   

speculative influences; and

 

   

changes in our hedging strategies.

40


Table of Contents

 

This excerpt taken from the HSY 10-K filed Feb 23, 2007.

Sensitivity Analysis

The following sensitivity analysis reflects our market risk to a hypothetical adverse market price movement of ten percent, based on our net commodity positions at four dates spaced equally throughout the year. Our net commodity positions consist of the amount of futures contracts we hold over or under the amount of futures contracts we need to price unpriced physical forward contracts for the same commodities. Inventories, priced

 

34


forward contracts and estimated anticipated purchases not yet under contract were not included in the sensitivity analysis calculations. We define a loss, for purposes of determining market risk, as the potential decrease in fair value or the opportunity cost resulting from the hypothetical adverse price movement. The fair values of net commodity positions reflect quoted market prices or estimated future prices, including estimated carrying costs corresponding with the future delivery period.

 

For the years ended December 31,

   2006    2005
  

Fair

Value

   

Market Risk

(Hypothetical

10% Change)

  

Fair

Value

   

Market Risk

(Hypothetical

10% Change)

In millions of dollars                      

Highest long position

   $ 138.4     $ 13.8    $ 16.3     $ 1.6

Lowest long position

     (147.0 )     14.7      (204.5 )     20.5

Average position (long)

     (37.3 )     3.7      (126.3 )     12.6

The increase in fair values from 2005 to 2006 primarily reflected an increase in net commodity positions. The negative positions primarily resulted as unpriced physical forward contract futures requirements exceeded the amount of commodities futures that we held at certain points in time during the years.

Sensitivity analysis disclosures represent forward-looking statements which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those presently anticipated or projected. Factors that could affect the sensitivity analysis disclosures include:

 

   

significant increases or decreases in market prices reflecting fluctuations attributable to the effect of weather on crop yield;

 

   

imbalances between supply and demand;

 

   

currency exchange rates;

 

   

political unrest in producing countries;

 

   

speculative influences; and

 

   

changes in our hedging strategies.

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