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Company: Hewitt Associates (HEW)
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  Don't trust management's claim that their business is counter-cyclical

Mixed Message from Management: On the conference call, management indicated that the outsourcing business was counter-cyclical, with customers outsourcing more in downturns in order to reduce costs. Yet they seemed to contradict this statement by saying that the current market environment was causing their new contract signing pace to be behind schedule.

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  Not capitalizing on advantage

Given how much most companies hate the human resources function, one would think that those willing to take on others’ headaches would be able to earn high profits. Unfortunately, there are a surprisingly large number of companies willing to take on those headaches. In the latest 10K, management says that “The principal competitors in our HR BPO segment are technology consultants and integrators such as Accenture (ACN), Affiliated Computer Services (ACS), EDS/ExcellerateHRO (EDS), IBM, and companies that have extended their services into human resources outsourcing such as Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Convergys (CVG)."

On the conference call, management indicated that the outsourcing business was counter-cyclical, with customers outsourcing more in downturns in order to reduce costs. Yet they seemed to contradict this statement by saying that the current market environment was causing their new contract signing pace to be behind schedule. Hewitt’s Zacks rank declined last week from 1 (best) to 2. Although the current rank still puts Hewitt in the top 20% of companies measured for earnings momentum, the cautious guidance and talk of a light pipeline are likely to result in some estimate reductions for the remainder of the year.

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  Lots of competition

Competition: In the latest 10K, management says that “The principal competitors in our HR BPO segment are technology consultants and integrators such as Accenture (ACN), Affiliated Computer Services (ACS), EDS/ExcellerateHRO (EDS), IBM, and companies that have extended their services into human resources outsourcing such as Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Convergys (CVG)."

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  Accrual Ratio decreasing

Furthermore, while earnings are improving the quality of those earnings is not. To gauge earnings quality, I measured the accrual ratio (change in net operating assets as a percentage of net operating assets) over the past several years. The accrual ratio gives an indication of the extent that earnings are driven by cash flows versus accounting choices. The closer the ratio is to zero, the better. Hewitt’s has been declining.

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  Earnings quality

Earnings quality: The accrual ratio gives an indication of the extent that earnings are driven by cash flows versus accounting choices. The closer the ratio is to zero, the better. Hewitt’s has been declining.

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  Free Cash flow to go down

Despite the lower sales pipeline and ongoing restructuring of unprofitable contracts, Hewitt paid higher performance-based compensation in the fourth quarter. This resulted in first quarter free cash flow being $4 million lower than last year. The company also expects to spend more on capital expenditures this year, which will dampen free cash flow generation.

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