QUOTE AND NEWS
Wall Street Journal  Jun 18 
"Pinning" has started to exert influence over the direction stocks take. This seems to be the case for J. Crew as its options near expiration.
Motley Fool  May 29 
The stock's gone too far, too quickly. Is it headed for a fall?
TheStreet.com  May 29 
J.Crew is upgraded on Friday, a day after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
TheStreet.com  May 29 
See who made what calls.
TheStreet.com  May 28 
J.Crew's profit may have slipped 33%, but same-store sales continue to remain afloat -- thanks in large part to First Family product placement.
Wall Street Journal  May 28 
J. Crew posted a 33% drop in fiscal first-quarter profit amid lower margins and projected current-quarter earnings well above Wall Street estimates.
MarketWatch  May 28 
PR News Wire  May 28 
First Quarter Revenues of $345.8 million First Quarter Diluted Earnings Per Share of $0.32 NEW YORK, May 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- J. Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE: JCG) today announced financial results for the three months ended May 2, 2009 (first
Business Wire  May 20 
J.Crew Group, Inc. (NYSE:JCG) today announced that the conference call to review its first quarter fiscal 2009 financial results will be broadcast live over the Internet on Thursday, May 28, 2009 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The broadcast will be
The Curious Investor  May 12 
Recently read an article, "Texas Pacific Group Made Money On J. Crew, Did You?," that seems to paint a rather damning picture of private equity, particularly Texas Pacific Group and its investments. The article makes note of the fact that TPG...
LOLFed  Apr 3 
Almost half the time when I post about retail, I'm posting about JCrew (JCG) and its CEO Millard Drexler, because he is just that adroit at inserting his wingtip loafers into his maw. Anyway, it seems like you guys didn't feel like dropping a...
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BULLS: REASONS TO BUY

 
0% agree
 
JCG in a good position to weather the economic storm

 
0% agree
 
Strong catalog operation provides demographic information about customers

 
0% agree
 
Young and growing company with a strong niche

BEARS: REASONS TO SELL

 
100% agree
 
Heavily reliant on the United States, Japan, and Canada

 
0% agree
 
Future economic conditions looking unstable

 
0% agree
 
The retail apparel industry has extremely low barriers to entry

 
TOP CONTRIBUTORS
JCG AT A GLANCE
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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J. Crew sells men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories through North American retail locations as well as catalogs and its website. The company produces products with a traditional preppy aesthetic similar to that of Polo Ralph Lauren (RL). J. Crew had total revenues of $1.4B in 2008[1], with net income of $54 million. The company is in direct competition with Jones Apparel Group (JNY) and Liz Claiborne (LIZ), both of which own and produce other brands in addition to their namesake lines.

Although the recession in the American economy has hurt many a retailer, J. Crew has actually managed to perform better than its competitors Claiborne and Jones Apparel Group, both of which posted a net loss during 2008 whereas J. Crew had a profit. First and foremost, its more traditional product offering has proven to be more attractive to consumers who, facing a smaller shopping budget, have started making purchases based more on value and longevity than on transient trends. In addition, the endorsement of Michelle Obama (she has been known to wear J. Crew pieces) has led to rapid sell-outs of specific pieces. Also, J. Crew has been making attempts to increase its brand image through collaborating with high-end brands such as Mackintosh and Barbour.

[edit] Business and Financials

[edit] Financial Performance

The company's revenue for fiscal year 2008 (ended January 31, 2009) was $953 million, a decrease of almost $500 from 2007. Same-store sales for fiscal 2008 also decreased by 4%, a big change from the previous year's 5.6% increase. 2008 and 2009 have proved to be difficult years for retail companies, as the recession broughout about by the 2007 Credit Crunch as well as the Subprime lending crisis have made consumers very uncertain of their financial security and thus they have decreased their spending on clothing and accessories. J. Crew announced on February 27, 2009 that they would cut jobs in an effort to save an estimated $40 million before taxes.[2]

Net income, along with sales, were on a steady increase from 2004 to 2007. However, net income took a dip in 2008
Net income, along with sales, were on a steady increase from 2004 to 2007. However, net income took a dip in 2008[3]
Sales by category for JCG FY 2008
Sales by category for JCG FY 2008[4]
Year Same-store sales change
200416.4%
200513.4%
200613.0%
20075.6%
2008-4.0%
[4]

[edit] Stores (68% of fiscal 2008 revenue)

The stores segment of JCG includes both retail locations and factory stores.

Factory Stores J. Crew operates 74 factory stores in the United States. Factory Stores are generally located in outlet malls. The factory stores are used to sell merchandise that didn't sell well at retail stores or other merchandise at lower prices than retail and catalog prices. These locations are operated in much the same way as the retail locations, with the difference arising from greater emphasis on higher inventory turnover.[5]

[edit] Direct(28.6% of fiscal 2008 sales)

J. Crew conducts its direct sales through the J. Crew website and the J. Crew catalog. J.Crew has two distribution centers in the U.S., one in Lynchburg, VA (this facility doubles as a call center for the whole U.S.), and the other in Asheville, NC.

Catalog The J. Crew catalog serves as J. Crew's primary marketing tool for the J. Crew brand. In 2008 J. Crew distributed approximately 44.4 million copies of its 23 different catalog editions. The revenues derived through catalog sales totaled $70.7 million[4] in 2008.

Online Online sales were $338 million in fiscal year 2009, making it the internet the largest contributor to direct sales.[4]

[edit] Other(3.1% of fiscal 2008 sales)

Other revenues consist of shipping and handling fees related to the Direct business.[4]

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] The First Lady's Influence Buoys Sales

First Lady Michelle Obama has worn a number of J. Crew pieces ever since she and her husband entered the public eye, and each piece she wears is soon sold out on the company's website. For example, on a trip to London a photograph was released of the First Lady wearing a cream-colored J. Crew cardigan. It was sold out by 10 a.m. that very morning. In addition, a $198 skirt she wore on the same trip had a 200-person waiting list within days. The advertising JCG receives, in addition to having their goods associated with someone who is considered a style icon, has been a boon to the company's share price, which has increased nearly 64% in the past four months.[6]

[edit] J. Crew's Product Offering an Asset in Recession

Due to the 2007 Credit Crunch and the Subprime lending crises in 2007 and 2008, the American economy has plunged into a recession. Consumers who once bought clothes whenever they wanted have found themselves cutting back on nonessential goods and services in order to save money. This reluctance to spend has had a substantial adverse effect on the retail industry. Given the state of the economy in 2009, consumers are more likely to spend money on the brands they perceive gives them the greatest value, not necessarily what is most fashion-forward.[7] Consumers perceive J. Crew pieces as providing high value for the price. Being able to provide high value to consumers is a boon in an economy where people need increasingly higher incentives to spend hard-earned money on nonessentials.[8]

[edit] J. Crew Attempts to Attract More Affluent Customers with High-End Collaborations

Designer collaborations have become a staple of the middle-to-lower end markets, starting with Karl Lagerfeld's collection for H&M. Designer collaborations serve as a way for lower-priced brands to cash in on the name recognition afforded by high-end designers. In addition, even if the particular designer is not as well-known as Karl Lagerfeld or Roberto Cavalli, these collaborations allow consumers access to a brand they would be unable to afford otherwise. J. Crew has begun its own set of collaborations, not with designers but with other brands that fit into its more conservative aesthetic. For example, J. Crew sells outerwear by Barbour and Mackintosh, luggage by Globe-Trotter and shirts by Thomas Mason.[9] Pieces by such brands sell for 2 to 3 times more than comparable J. Crew items. These collaborations seem to be geared towards attracting a higher-end consumer and raising J. Crew's brand image. However, given the recession in the American economy its effects (if any) are unclear.

[edit] Competition

J. Crew operates in the highly competitive specialty retail industry competing against high-end department stores, catalog retailers, web based businesses, and other specialty retailers.

  • Liz Claiborne (LIZ) sells men's and women's apparel through two main channels. It designs and markets premium brands such as Juicy Couture, Kate Spade, Lucky Brand Jeans and Mexx. In addition it has a group of department-store based brands such as Liz Claiborne, Dana Buchman, DKNY Jeans, DKNY Active and DKNY Men. Claiborne dwarfed J. Crew in total 2008 sales, however Claiborne had negative net profit in 2008 whereas J. Crew had positive profit. Claiborne's products are sold through both standalone stores and department stores such as Macy's Inc. (M), thereby increasing exposure to consumers. J. Crew, on the other hand, only sells goods through its own stores and does not have a wholesale division. In addition JCG, primarily a retailer catering to middle-income consumers, has made an entry into the luxury market through collaborations with Mackintosh and Globe-Trotter, an outerwear and luggage company respectively. Claiborne Inc. has supplemented its own premium lines through collaborations between its namesake like (Liz Claiborne) and high-end designers such as Isaac Mizrahi and John Bartlett.[10]
  • Jones Apparel Group (JNY) is a designer, marketer and wholesaler of apparel and accessories. It's brands include: Jones New York, Nine West, Anne Klein, Gloria Vanderbilt, Kasper, Bandolino, Easy Spirit, Evan-Picone, l.e.i., Energie, Enzo Angiolini, Joan & David, Mootsies Tootsies, Sam & Libby, Napier, Judith Jack, Albert Nipon and Le Suit. The company also has a license with Givenchy to produce, market and distribute jewelry in the U.S., Mexico, Canada and Japan under the Givenchy name. The license expires on December 31, 2011. The company also licenses out some of its brand names, such as Anne Klein New York, Nine West and Jones New York to third-party manufacturers in addition to designing and producing its own products. Some of JNY's brands are sold through individual stores such as Bandolino and Easy Spirit. Other lines are wholesale and thus rely on orders from other retailers. Like Claiborne Inc., JNY's 2008 revenue was higher than J. Crew's, however its operating margin was -35%, the lowest of all three companies. Unlike J. Crew or Claiborne Inc., Jones Apparel has not attempted to penetrate the premium goods market outside its license with Givenchy.


Operational Metrics< Liz Claiborne (LIZ) Jones Apparel Group (JNY) J. Crew Group (JCG)
Same Store Sales Growth ('08) (5.5%) (4.3%) (4.0%)
Revenue (Annual '08) $3.98B $3.56B $1.43B
Operating Margin (Annual '08) (18.4%) (35%) (6.8%)
Net Income (Annual '08) ($951.81M) ($723.60 M) $54.12 M



[edit] Footnotes

  1. JCG 2008 10-K
  2. JCG 2008 10-K page 25
  3. JCG 2008 Annual Report pg. 23  
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 JCG 2008 Annual Report pg. 24  
  5. JCG 2008 Annual Report pg. 25  
  6. "Michelle Obama’s J.Crew outfits trigger shopping frenzy"
  7. "Study: Value Trumps Price Among Shoppers"
  8. "Study: Value Trumps Price Among Shoppers"
  9. J. Crew website
  10. Liz Claiborne New York website
 
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