MGM MIRAGE (MGM)

A slowing U.S. economy has taken its toll on MGM Mirage (MGM), but analysts are convinced that majority shareholder Kirk Kerkorian will take action before allowing shares to get too low. Kerkorian, a 90-year-old billionaire investor, owns 52% of MGM and in the past, has stepped in with a share repurchase plan and repayment of debt to prop up falling share prices. In the past 18 months, Kerkorian has boosted the share price four times using these methods.

Joseph Kath, a fund manager at Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (TROW), told Bloomberg News that Dubai World could also purchase shares or make an investment to pay down debt and reduce MGM’s interest expense. State-controlled Dubai World already owns a 9.2% stake in MGM and would be willing to invest up to a 20% stake. As recently as January, Dubai and MGM made a combined tender offer to buy 10 million shares at a price of $75 to $80. The offer boosted the stock over 5%.

As the largest casino company in Vegas, MGM Grand has been affected by the decline in room rates and dwindling tourist traffic. But Murren was quick to reassure investors during an April 9 interview with Bloomberg. Murren said it’s unlikely MGM "is going to sit back and wring its hands hoping that something gets better sometime and we pull out of this recession. It would be inconsistent with what MGM has always done since I’ve been here."

Despite its large size, MGM Mirage still faces many growth opportunities. These include, in the short term, MGM Grand Macao and City Center. In the longer term, MGM faces the prospect of establishing a casino in Detroit, brand lending to Native American casinos and building operations in the Middle East and other international locations.

Despite its large size, MGM Mirage still faces many growth opportunities. These include, in the short term, MGM Grand Macao and City Center. In the longer term, MGM faces the prospect of establishing a casino in Detroit, brand lending to Native American casinos and building operations in the Middle East and other international locations.

The underlying gaming industry in Las Vegas remains vibrant and growing. Thus, MGM’s core business will remain stable and healthy.

MGM will participate in the explosive growth of Macau, which, due to its prime geographic location and China's growth and internationalization, is likely to expand quickly and profitably.

Note that MGM Mirage has, by my estimates of its 1,300 acres around the country that it owns, $7 billion in hidden land assets that are not reflected on the company's balance sheet. The equity sale to a Dubai investment group will allow MGM to pay off a substantial portion of its bank debt and improve the company's balance sheet (please see company presentation made at Deutsch Bank Gaming Conference 2007 at www.mgm.com).

Also note that the Detroit project is up and running as of October 3, 2007. Take a look at the company's presentation at Wachovia's Real Estate conference December 5th, 2007: http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/10/101502/presentations/120507Wachovia.pdf.