Macy's Inc. (M)

Poor store sales have caused Macy's to lower its earnings forecast to $1.30 to $1.50 per share for fiscal year 2008. In addition, officials at Macy's expect poor sales to continue into spring 2009 at least. The holiday season, a major revenue period for retailers, won't provide any relief as 37% of Americans aim to curb their shopping this year, 10% more than last year.

Moody’s Investors Service (MCO), cut Macy’s Inc.’s (M) credit rating to junk status yesterday (Wednesday), saying the department store chain will likely remain under pressure amid weak consumer spending, Reuters reported. The ratings agency cut Macy’s senior unsecured rating by two notches to Ba2, the second highest junk rating. The outlook is stable, meaning another rating change is not expected over the next 12 to 18 months.

Results at May stores have been lower than expected, and if traction at former May doors does not improve Macy’s will suffer.

Macy’s will suffer if consumers continue to choose to shop at specialty stores.

• Declining revenues (even before the current crisis)
• Poor ROE (never higher than 7% for the past five years) despite heavy debt load
• Heavy debt load of almost $10 billion (>95% debt/equity, 4.6x debt/forward EBITDA)
• Almost $1 billion of debt due this year
• Declining net income margin since 2005
• Overvalued at over 18x forward P/E
• Pending downgrade to junk at both Moody's and S&P
• Likely to lose market share as the company is forced to close down stores to preserve cash