MRO » Topics » A substantial or extended decline in liquid hydrocarbon or natural gas prices, as well as refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, would reduce our operating results and cash flows and could adversely impact our future rate of growth and the carryi

These excerpts taken from the MRO 10-K filed Feb 27, 2009.

A substantial or extended decline in liquid hydrocarbon or natural gas prices, or in refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, would reduce our operating results and cash flows and could adversely impact our future rate of growth and the carrying value of our assets.

Prices for liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and refining and wholesale marketing gross margins fluctuate widely. Our revenues, operating results and future rate of growth are highly dependent on the prices we receive for our liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and the margins we realize on our refined products. Historically, the markets for liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas and refined products have been volatile and may continue to be volatile in the future. Many of the factors influencing prices of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and refining and wholesale marketing gross margins are beyond our control. These factors include:

 

   

worldwide and domestic supplies of and demand for liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas and refined products;

 

   

the cost of exploring for, developing and producing liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas;

 

   

the cost of crude oil to be manufactured into refined products;

 

   

utilization rates of refineries;

 

   

natural gas and electricity supply costs incurred by refineries

 

   

the ability of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree to and maintain production controls;

 

   

political instability or armed conflict in oil and natural gas producing regions;

 

   

changes in weather patterns and climate;

 

   

natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornados;

 

   

the price and availability of alternative and competing forms of energy;

 

   

domestic and foreign governmental regulations and taxes; and

 

   

general economic conditions worldwide.

The long-term effects of these and other factors on the prices of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas, as well as on refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, are uncertain.

Lower liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices, may cause us to reduce the amount of these commodities that we produce, which may reduce our revenues, operating income and cash flows. Significant reductions in liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices or refining and wholesale marketing gross margins could require us to reduce our capital expenditures or impair the carrying value of our assets.

Estimates of liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas and bitumen reserves depend on many factors and assumptions, including various assumptions that are based on conditions in existence as of the dates of the estimates. Any material changes in those conditions or other factors affecting those assumptions could impair the quantity and value of our liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas and bitumen reserves.

The proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves information included in this report has been derived from engineering estimates. Those estimates were prepared by our in-house teams of reservoir engineers and geoscience professionals and reviewed, on a selected basis, by our Corporate Reserves Group or third-party consultants we have retained. The estimates were calculated using liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices in effect as of December 31, 2008, as well as other conditions in existence as of that date. Any significant future price

 

25


Table of Contents
Index to Financial Statements

changes will have a material effect on the quantity and present value of our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves. Future reserve revisions could also result from changes in, among other things, governmental regulation and severance and other production taxes.

Proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserve estimation is a subjective process that involves estimating volumes to be recovered from underground accumulations of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas that cannot be directly measured. Estimates of economically recoverable liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and of future net cash flows depend upon a number of variable factors and assumptions, including:

 

   

location, size and shape of the accumulation as well as fluid, rock and producing characteristics of the accumulation;

 

   

historical production from the area, compared with production from other comparable producing areas;

 

   

the assumed effects of regulation by governmental agencies; and

 

   

assumptions concerning future operating costs, severance and excise taxes, development costs and workover and repair costs.

As a result, different petroleum engineers, each using industry-accepted geologic and engineering practices and scientific methods, may produce different estimates of proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and future net cash flows based on the same available data. Because of the subjective nature of liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserve estimates, each of the following items may differ materially from the amounts or other factors estimated:

 

   

the amount and timing of liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas production;

 

   

the revenues and costs associated with that production; and

 

   

the amount and timing of future development expenditures.

The discounted future net revenues from our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves reflected in this report should not be considered as the market value of the reserves attributable to our liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas properties. As required by SEC Rule 4-10 of Regulation S-X, the estimated discounted future net revenues from our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves are based on prices and costs as of the date of the estimate, while actual future prices and costs may be materially higher or lower.

In addition, the 10 percent discount factor required by the applicable rules of the SEC to be used to calculate discounted future net revenues for reporting purposes is not necessarily the most appropriate discount factor based on our cost of capital and the risks associated with our business and the oil and natural gas industry in general.

The proved bitumen reserves information included in this report has also been derived from engineering estimates. Reserves related to mining operations are defined as that part of a mineral deposit which could be economically and legally extracted or produced at the time of the reserve determination. Proved reserves are measured by various testing and sampling methods. Bitumen reserves as of December 31, 2008 were estimated by third-party consultants, using volumetric estimation techniques similar to those used in estimating liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and are subject to many of the same uncertainties discussed above, except that estimates of bitumen reserves are based on average annual prices consistent with industry practice in Canada. The estimated quantity of net proved bitumen reserves is based on a number of assumptions, including (among others) commodity prices, volumes in-place, presently known physical data, recoverability of bitumen, industry economic conditions, levels of cash flow from operations and other operating considerations. To the extent these assumptions prove inaccurate, actual recoveries could be different than current estimates. Future proved bitumen reserve revisions could also result from changes in, among other things, governmental regulation and taxation.

A substantial or extended decline in liquid hydrocarbon or natural gas prices, or in refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, would reduce our operating results and cash flows and could adversely impact our future rate of growth and the carrying value of our assets.

Prices for liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and refining and wholesale marketing gross margins fluctuate widely. Our revenues, operating results and future rate of growth are highly dependent on the prices we receive for our liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and the margins we realize on our refined products. Historically, the markets for liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas and refined products have been volatile and may continue to be volatile in the future. Many of the factors influencing prices of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and refining and wholesale marketing gross margins are beyond our control. These factors include:

 

   

worldwide and domestic supplies of and demand for liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas and refined products;

 

   

the cost of exploring for, developing and producing liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas;

 

   

the cost of crude oil to be manufactured into refined products;

 

   

utilization rates of refineries;

 

   

natural gas and electricity supply costs incurred by refineries

 

   

the ability of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree to and maintain production controls;

 

   

political instability or armed conflict in oil and natural gas producing regions;

 

   

changes in weather patterns and climate;

 

   

natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornados;

 

   

the price and availability of alternative and competing forms of energy;

 

   

domestic and foreign governmental regulations and taxes; and

 

   

general economic conditions worldwide.

The long-term effects of these and other factors on the prices of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas, as well as on refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, are uncertain.

Lower liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices, may cause us to reduce the amount of these commodities that we produce, which may reduce our revenues, operating income and cash flows. Significant reductions in liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices or refining and wholesale marketing gross margins could require us to reduce our capital expenditures or impair the carrying value of our assets.

Estimates of liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas and bitumen reserves depend on many factors and assumptions, including various assumptions that are based on conditions in existence as of the dates of the estimates. Any material changes in those conditions or other factors affecting those assumptions could impair the quantity and value of our liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas and bitumen reserves.

The proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves information included in this report has been derived from engineering estimates. Those estimates were prepared by our in-house teams of reservoir engineers and geoscience professionals and reviewed, on a selected basis, by our Corporate Reserves Group or third-party consultants we have retained. The estimates were calculated using liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices in effect as of December 31, 2008, as well as other conditions in existence as of that date. Any significant future price

 

25


Table of Contents
Index to Financial Statements

changes will have a material effect on the quantity and present value of our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves. Future reserve revisions could also result from changes in, among other things, governmental regulation and severance and other production taxes.

Proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserve estimation is a subjective process that involves estimating volumes to be recovered from underground accumulations of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas that cannot be directly measured. Estimates of economically recoverable liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and of future net cash flows depend upon a number of variable factors and assumptions, including:

 

   

location, size and shape of the accumulation as well as fluid, rock and producing characteristics of the accumulation;

 

   

historical production from the area, compared with production from other comparable producing areas;

 

   

the assumed effects of regulation by governmental agencies; and

 

   

assumptions concerning future operating costs, severance and excise taxes, development costs and workover and repair costs.

As a result, different petroleum engineers, each using industry-accepted geologic and engineering practices and scientific methods, may produce different estimates of proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and future net cash flows based on the same available data. Because of the subjective nature of liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserve estimates, each of the following items may differ materially from the amounts or other factors estimated:

 

   

the amount and timing of liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas production;

 

   

the revenues and costs associated with that production; and

 

   

the amount and timing of future development expenditures.

The discounted future net revenues from our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves reflected in this report should not be considered as the market value of the reserves attributable to our liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas properties. As required by SEC Rule 4-10 of Regulation S-X, the estimated discounted future net revenues from our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves are based on prices and costs as of the date of the estimate, while actual future prices and costs may be materially higher or lower.

In addition, the 10 percent discount factor required by the applicable rules of the SEC to be used to calculate discounted future net revenues for reporting purposes is not necessarily the most appropriate discount factor based on our cost of capital and the risks associated with our business and the oil and natural gas industry in general.

The proved bitumen reserves information included in this report has also been derived from engineering estimates. Reserves related to mining operations are defined as that part of a mineral deposit which could be economically and legally extracted or produced at the time of the reserve determination. Proved reserves are measured by various testing and sampling methods. Bitumen reserves as of December 31, 2008 were estimated by third-party consultants, using volumetric estimation techniques similar to those used in estimating liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and are subject to many of the same uncertainties discussed above, except that estimates of bitumen reserves are based on average annual prices consistent with industry practice in Canada. The estimated quantity of net proved bitumen reserves is based on a number of assumptions, including (among others) commodity prices, volumes in-place, presently known physical data, recoverability of bitumen, industry economic conditions, levels of cash flow from operations and other operating considerations. To the extent these assumptions prove inaccurate, actual recoveries could be different than current estimates. Future proved bitumen reserve revisions could also result from changes in, among other things, governmental regulation and taxation.

This excerpt taken from the MRO 10-K filed Feb 29, 2008.

A substantial or extended decline in liquid hydrocarbon or natural gas prices, as well as refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, would reduce our operating results and cash flows and could adversely impact our future rate of growth and the carrying value of our assets.

Prices for liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and refining and wholesale marketing gross margins fluctuate widely. Our revenues, operating results and future rate of growth are highly dependent on the prices we receive for our liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and the margins we realize on our refined products. Historically, the markets for liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas and refined products have been volatile and may continue to be volatile in the future. Many of the factors influencing prices of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas and refining and wholesale marketing gross margins are beyond our control. These factors include:

 

   

worldwide and domestic supplies of and demand for liquid hydrocarbons, natural gas and refined products;

 

   

the cost of exploring for, developing and producing liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas;

 

   

the cost of crude oil to be manufactured into refined products;

 

   

the ability of the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree to and maintain production controls;

 

   

political instability or armed conflict in oil and natural gas producing regions;

 

   

changes in weather patterns and climatic changes;

 

   

natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornados;

 

   

the price and availability of alternative and competing fuels;

 

   

domestic and foreign governmental regulations and taxes; and

 

   

general economic conditions worldwide.

The long-term effects of these and other factors on the prices of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas, as well as on refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, are uncertain.

Lower liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices, as well as lower refining and wholesale marketing gross margins, may reduce the amount of these commodities that we produce, which may reduce our revenues, operating income and cash flows. Significant reductions in liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices or refining and wholesale marketing gross margins could require us to reduce our capital expenditures or impair the carrying value of our assets.

Estimates of liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas and bitumen reserves depend on many factors and assumptions, including various assumptions that are based on conditions in existence as of the dates of the estimates. Any material changes in those conditions or other factors affecting those assumptions could impair the quantity and value of our liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas and bitumen reserves.

The proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves information included in this report has been derived from engineering estimates. Those estimates were prepared by our in-house teams of reservoir engineers and geoscience professionals and reviewed, on a selected basis, by our Corporate Reserves Group and/or third-party consultants we have retained. The estimates were calculated using liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas prices in effect as of December 31, 2007, as well as other conditions in existence as of that date. Any significant future price

 

24


Table of Contents
Index to Financial Statements

changes will have a material effect on the quantity and present value of our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves. Future reserve revisions could also result from changes in, among other things, governmental regulation and severance and other production taxes.

Proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserve estimation is a subjective process that involves estimating volumes to be recovered from underground accumulations of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas that cannot be directly measured. Estimates of economically recoverable liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and of future net cash flows depend upon a number of variable factors and assumptions, including:

 

   

location, size and shape of the accumulation as well as fluid, rock and producing characteristics of the accumulation;

 

   

historical production from the area, compared with production from other comparable producing areas;

 

   

the assumed effects of regulation by governmental agencies; and

 

   

assumptions concerning future operating costs, severance and excise taxes, development costs and workover and repair costs.

As a result, different petroleum engineers, each using industry-accepted geologic and engineering practices and scientific methods, may produce different estimates of proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and future net cash flows based on the same available data. Because of the subjective nature of liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserve estimates, each of the following items may differ materially from the amounts or other factors estimated:

 

   

the amount and timing of liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas production;

 

   

the revenues and costs associated with that production; and

 

   

the amount and timing of future development expenditures.

The discounted future net revenues from our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves reflected in this report should not be considered as the market value of the reserves attributable to our liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas properties. As required by SEC Rule 4-10 of Regulation S-X, the estimated discounted future net revenues from our proved liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves are based on prices and costs as of the date of the estimate, while actual future prices and costs may be materially higher or lower.

In addition, the 10 percent discount factor required by the applicable rules of the SEC to be used to calculate discounted future net revenues for reporting purposes is not necessarily the most appropriate discount factor based on our cost of capital and the risks associated with our business and the oil and natural gas industry in general.

The proved bitumen reserves information included in this report has also been derived from engineering estimates. Reserves related to mining operations are defined as that part of a mineral deposit which could be economically and legally extracted or produced at the time of the reserve determination. Proved reserves are measured by various testing and sampling methods. Bitumen reserves as of December 31, 2007 were estimated by third-party consultants, using volumetric estimation techniques similar to those used in estimating liquid hydrocarbon and natural gas reserves and are subject to many of the same uncertainties discussed above. The estimated quantity of net proved bitumen reserves is based on a number of assumptions, including (among others) commodity prices, volumes in-place, presently known physical data, recoverability of bitumen, industry economic conditions, levels of cash flow from operations and other operating considerations. To the extent these assumptions prove inaccurate, actual recoveries could be different than current estimates. Future proved bitumen reserve revisions could also result from changes in, among other things, governmental regulation and taxation.

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