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Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is the world’s largest manufacturer of software, and also holds a dominant position in desktop operating systems. Recent forays into the entertainment industry with the Xbox, Zune, and Windows Live have made it a player to watch in this sector as well. Microsoft's server solutions also remain heavyweight players in their own sector, generating a significant portion (about 25%) of Microsoft's total annual revenue.

Recently, news outlets have been saturated with coverage of Microsoft's unsolicited bid to buy out the internet services company Yahoo! for $44.6 billion. Three months after the initial offer and after increasing the offer to $33 per share (a $5 billion increase) Yahoo refused the bid and Microsoft walked away from the deal. The acquisition of Yahoo! would have given Microsoft a presence in internet search, through Yahoo's portal, and more importantly would have created a new revenue source with sales of online advertising through Yahoo's network. Internet advertising is a rapidly growing industry, but one which has been dominated by the juggernaut Google.

Microsoft's biggest challenge is largely a result of the company's size--since the current revenue stream is so big, it is difficult to significantly increase these numbers. In order to continue its growth and avoid stagnation, Microsoft must branch out into new sectors of technology in order to build revenues. Hence, its current push to develop its Entertainment, Devices and Online Services divisions. Although some of its efforts in these areas struggle to match the performance of established industry giants, Microsoft's massive pool of ready capital allows it to correct early missteps and overpower competition in the product initiatives it chooses to pursue.

Microsoft buys airfare-prediction Web site Farecast. Microsoft, the world's largest software company, acquired travel Web site Farecast, gaining technology that predicts whether air fares will rise or fall. Farecast Chief Executive Officer Hugh Crean announced the purchase Thursday on the company's blog. He didn't disclose a price or other terms. Microsoft added the Seattle-based company's prediction and planning services to its MSN Travel Web site in July. Microsoft is making acquisitions to attract more Web users and boost online ad revenue. Microsoft is making acquisitions to attract more Web users and boost online ad revenue. After buying AQuantive for $6 billion last year, Microsoft is now trying to acquire Yahoo. The moves are an effort to catch up with Google in the $40.9 billion global online ad market. "We look forward to working closely with the Farecast team to incorporate and apply its technology in new and interesting ways," Whitney Burk, a spokeswoman for Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft, said in an e-mailed statement. She declined to comment further.

A dramatically changing computer industry landscape is also affecting Microsoft, especially in its core software business. Microsoft must learn to adapt nimbly in order to effectively combat software as a service (SaaS) offerings, the reinvigoration of Linux and Open-Source, and declining PC sales worldwide. Increased competition in its lucrative servers business must also be addressed.

Contents

[edit] History and Business Overview

Founded in 1975 by Bill Gates, Microsoft Corporation began its domination of the computer industry with 1992’s Windows 3.1 operating system. In following years, the super-successful releases of Windows 95 and 98 consolidated this lead, as did warm receptions of updated Microsoft Office software. Today, multi-national Microsoft remains at the head of the industry, its desktop operating system market share exceeding 90% and its global annual revenue weighing in at more than $44 billion. While the bulk of Microsoft’s profits derive from corporate contracts, a significant minority of its profits come from the pockets of private individuals, and Microsoft is a common name both at home and work.

In recent years, Microsoft has been struggling to sustain strong growth rates. Like any extremely large company, it is difficult to continue significant percentage gains in revenue; as company worth and total income grow, revenue increases must become ever greater to “move the needle.” To combat this, Microsoft has been expanding into much-needed new markets, introducing a variety of new products and service offerings. Among these are gaming industry phenomenons Xbox and Xbox 360 consoles, as well as the rather less well-received Zune portable media player. Microsoft is also bulking up its Online Services offerings, and it has made multiple attempts to acquire internet search portal Yahoo!, an acquisition that would significantly enhance Microsoft's presence in the online services sector.

[edit] Earnings for Third Quarter 2008

Microsoft reported record earnings in its third quarter of FY2008. The company earned $14.45 billion in revenue meeting analysts' estimates, but ultimately disappointing investors who were hoping for a knockout quarter that would potentially push the company's outstanding bid for internet giant Yahoo forward.[1][2] The company's Xbox system had a profitable quarter, however, helping to boost earnings with more than 1.3 million consoles shipped. Microsoft's entertainment division, the home of the Xbox console, brought in profits for the third consecutive quarter earning $1.58 billion, a 68% increase from the same period in the prior year.[3] This was a significant earnings report for Microsoft as Yahoo's deadline to make a decision on the outstanding $44.6 billion Microsoft bid came only two days after the earnings release. Yahoo has said that it is not opposed to a deal with Microsoft, but that the current bid is not the right price.[4] As such, the potential deal between Microsoft and Yahoo remains in limbo as Microsoft has said it does not intend to raise its bid for the internet giant.[5]

[edit] Products and Service Offerings

Currently, Microsoft’s products and service offerings fall into five divisions or business sectors:

  • Client: The Client division accounts for about 25% of total revenue, and includes Windows Vista, XP, and Media Center operating systems.
  • Server and Tools: This includes various servers and tools primarily for corporate or developer use, including the Windows server, the SQL server, Cluster high-performance server software, and a variety of developer tools (for example, programming product/language Visual Basic). Server and Tools accounts for a little less than 25% of total revenue.
  • Business: 30% of Microsoft's total revenue, the Business division includes perennial software heavyweight Microsoft Office, as well as a number of enterprise resource planning (ERP) software programs marketed under the Dynamics series. This division also includes the Microsoft Exchange Server, an online messaging/collaborative software product.
  • Online Services: A newer field of focus for Microsoft, Online Services includes MSN.com, MSN Search, the newly developed AdCenter for Microsoft’s advertising, and personal communication services like internet telephony. It currently accounts for about 5% of total revenue.
  • Entertainment and Devices: The most high-profile aspect of Microsoft’s expansion, E&D includes the highly successful Xbox and Xbox 360 video game consoles, a large collection of Microsoft-licensed video and computer game titles (including Halo and the Age of Empires series), Windows Mobile and Automotive (operating systems for mobile and car navigation devices), and the Zune mp3 player (designed to compete with Apple's iPod). Entertainment and Devices is currently responsible for about 17% of total revenue, a number which will probably rise significantly over the next few years.

Of these divisions, the highest earners by far are Client, Business, and Server and Tools. However, the strongest rates of growth are in are Entertainment and Devices, with Server and Tools placing a far second. The table below shows revenue breakdown by division for the last two quarters of 2006, percent change between those quarters, and percent change between years (2005 and 2006).

Total Revenue $M % Change compared same quarter 2005
July-Sept 2006 Oct-Dec 2006 % Change July-Sept Oct-Dec
Client 3,303 2,589 -22% 4% -25%
Server and Tools 2,499 2,845 13% 17% 16%
Online Services 539 624 15% -5% 5%
Business 3,425 3,512 2% 4% -5%
Entertainment and Devices 1,030 2,964 187% 69% 75%
Total 10,796 12,534 195% 89% 66%

Source: Company Data

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] Antitrust risks

Microsoft has a history of running afoul of anti-trust laws. As recently as July of 2006, the company was fined US$356 million by the European Union in response to a 2004 antitrust ruling. Given its monopolistic prominence, Microsoft is always under a slew of lawsuits, and the damage this does to the company's profitability, business strategy, and public image is significant. Potential legal problems can have a variety of impacts, from negative publicity to fines to possible forced reorganization of the company.

[edit] Losses from Piracy

Microsoft loses a staggering US$18 billion every year from pirated Windows operating systems alone. With a total piracy rate of about 30% and the number even higher in some countries, Microsoft suffers massive losses from the distribution of pirated Windows. For instance, in China, 90% of all Windows operating systems are pirated. Worst of all for Microsoft, the countries with the highest rates of piracy are exactly those with the fastest-growing number of PC purchases. Thus the opportunity cost of piracy to Microsoft is huge: the software giant finds itself unable to tap into these burgeoning PC markets just when it needs them the most. In fact, fast-growing PC markets Latin America and Asia/Pacific account for about 1/3 of total PC shipments, but only 1/10 of total PC software spending.

Microsoft has repeatedly stated that cracking down on piracy will be among its main goals in the coming years. In addition to its direct approach of petitioning for governmental crackdown and legal modification, Microsoft is also pursuing more creative anti-piracy methods. Its current push for "Genuine Windows" promises a host of special features, additions, and online services for those with non-pirated versions of Windows. If this two-pronged attack on piracy succeeds, Microsoft could reclaim as much as US$ 3 billion by reducing piracy a mere 8%.

Software piracy is so widespread in South Africa, it’s almost thought of as commonplace rather than illegal. A 2006 piracy study by IDC - a technology and telecommunications advisory firm - found 35% of the software in South Africa is illegal, costing software publishers more than $150 million a year in that country alone.

"Piracy remains one of the major hurdles to realizing the potential of the information economy in South Africa and on the continent," Business Software Alliance SA Chairman Alastair de Wet told IT Web. "There is great concern for our local economy that over a third of software in use is illegal."

"We want to protect legitimate computer businesses and resellers who do the right thing in selling genuine software," Microsoft’s Reynolds told IT Web. "Microsoft won’t stand by and allow unscrupulous vendors to destroy the businesses of our channel partners or the jobs of their employees."

Earlier in April 08, Microsoft settled out of court with 21 South African computer dealers that were selling computers loaded with unlicensed Microsoft software. And last week in China, police broke up a piracy ring in Shenzhen, seizing programs worth upward of $750 million on a tip from the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

[edit] Shift towards web-based software services

Due to a strong trend of shifting towards web-based services and away from traditional desktop software offerings, it may well be the end of an era for Microsoft and other tech companies. This doesn't mean that Microsoft is "finished"--indeed, it is highly unlikely that Microsoft will be in a position of jeopardy any time soon. But in order to retain its strong position, Microsoft will have to make some nimble adjustments in its business/development strategy and product offerings. Microsoft may have to invest significantly in appropriate acquisitions to bolster its position as it tries to shift gears.

  • Slowing rates of PC growth in most developed countries means a decrease in profit growth for Microsoft as well. With an approximately 95% of the total market share in PC operating systems, Microsoft's revenues vary directly with PC upgrade cycles and growth trends. But the story isn't all bleak: Asia and Latin America are still experiencing vigorous PC growth. How well Microsoft taps into these markets will have an important effect on its Client and Business division earnings (see Piracy, above). Microsoft is also making a concerted effort to diversify earnings beyond the PC market, expanding in high-potential markets like Entertainment and Devices.
  • The rise of Software as a Service or Software On Demand means that there is more and more competition for traditional Microsoft products like Microsoft Office. Although current shareware, open-source, or low-cost alternative software (like Google Spreadsheet and Writely) are still several years away from the kind of security and functionality required for corporate endorsement, most industry experts agree that software will continue to move towards these browser-based models. However, Microsoft is taking important steps to benefit from this trend itself, starting with the release of a new version of its Microsoft Exchange Server that is available on demand.
  • Another recent trend, the shift from client-server to Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), marks the further and parallel movement of the server industry in the direction of On Demand. Here, the companies that may stand to benefit the most are those with solid bases in the small-to-medium business market, such as Oracle (ORCL). Leading Linux software distributor Red Hat may also benefit significantly, since the resulting restructuring of the software industry could mean a revival of interest in open-source alternatives. Microsoft may have a lot of ground to make up in this area.

[edit] New focus on internet services

Microsoft's recent rebranding of its Hotmail, MSN, and LiveJournal offerings under the name of Windows Live marks an important company decision to focus more intensely on expansion into the internet service market. Microsoft has a number of interesting advances up its sleeve, including the MSN search toolbar, a new graphics-heavy "digital human" search interface, and adCenter, Microsoft's first totally self-developed advertising platform. But Microsoft will have rough competition to subdue, and remains several steps behind internet services giants Google (GOOG). Google alone currently accounts for 60% of world market share in internet searches.

This stands to change if Microsoft is able to acquire Yahoo!, currently the world's second-largest online search company. The combination of Yahoo! and Microsoft has potential to create serious competition for Google, and Microsoft's existing base of consumer and business customers will open up new users to Yahoo's portal, and vice versa. A merger of the two companies will create amjor revenues for Microsoft in online advertising sales, a market sector that Microsoft desperately wants to enter and one where Yahoo! has an existing infrastructure and track record of success (although, not on the level enjoyed by market leader Google).

[edit] No more big rollouts?

The new product cycle includes a near-simultaneous introduction of Windows Vista, the Microsoft Longhorn server, and Office 2007. Because the changing tech markets makes it possible (some even say likely) that this will be the last large product cycle rollout of its kind for Microsoft, the performance of Vista and its companions will be especially important, as they may have to drive earnings for some years to come.

  • Windows Vista arrives in an 5 different versions or SKUs (stock-keeping units), with the consumer-oriented SKUs selling for US$ 100-300. The enterprise SKU is more expensive (as much as US$ 1000 per license), and is also the only version with BitLocker, a highly-anticipated feature that allows companies to keep their data secure even if a computer is physically stolen. Microsoft hopes to combat piracy with its lower-priced SKUs, while also urging other buyers towards higher-priced premium versions.
  • Heightened compatibility and tighter integration among the new Vista, Office 2007, and Dynamics/Server offerings may promote growth for each of these offerings--companies may be inclined to upgrade everything at the same time, instead of restricting themselves to upgrading just one component of the Microsoft suite.
  • As of May 2007, Vista sales seem less than promising. Despite Microsoft's reports of Vista selling 3 million more copies in the month of releas than XP did, some misleading counting methods makes this claim unlikely. First, Microsoft has included Vista sales from free/reduced price Vista upgrades offered with new, XP-equipped PCs sold during 2006's holiday season. Second, Microsoft is counting all licenses that have been sold to retailers, thus including Vista copies currently sitting on retail shelves or in unsold PCs. In their October quarterly earnings report, the company revealed relatively brisk sales of Vista due to increasing demand for PCs.

[edit] Xbox hopeful, Zune not

Entertainment and Devices is currently Microsoft's fastest-growing division in terms of revenue generation, and its two most visible products are the Xbox gaming platform and the Zune mp3 player. Both products have received a large amount of media coverage (not always positive), and their eventual or continued profitability with have an important impact on Microsoft's overall performance as the E&D division continues to grow.

  • The Xbox 360, introduced in late 2005, is leading the next-generation of video game consoles in terms of units sold. It has been holding up relatively well against Sony's PlayStation3--but Nintendo's Wii has posed a serious threat with its rapid growth. By launching the Xbox 360 nearly 12 months before the PlayStation3 and the Wii arrived, Microsoft hoped to seed the market, aiming to have 10 million Xbox 360 units sold by December 2006. The strategy seemed to pay off; December saw more than twice as many Xbox 360 sales as PlayStation sales. However, despite the 360's year-long head start, the Wii has managed to catch up in sales, and as of April 2007 is approaching 7 million units in cumulative net sales worldwide (Xbox 360: 10 million).
    • On the plus side, however, the 360 console may itself soon become more profitable. Currently, each console's thin or even negative profit margins are absorbed by strong profits from licensing fees and game sales (Halo 2 alone sold more than US$ 125 million on its release day). But as Microsoft gets better at building 360s, it can reduce manufacturing costs significantly (a recent change may cut costs by $50/console). Increased profit margins will allow Microsoft to offer price cuts to consumers.
  • The future of Xbox Live will also affect E&D strongly. The first console player experience of its kind, Xbox Live offers free Silver Access to all 360 owners, allowing them to purchase and download additional gaming features as well various multimedia offerings. Gold Access (yearly subscription $60) allows gamers to play against each other via internet servers. However, the PlayStation3 offers a similar and competing system; the ultimate success of one or the other will probably strongly influence which console will remain preferred. Also, Microsoft is currently playing with the possibility of connecting console gaming to desktop gaming--a big boost for Xbox Live if it goes through.
  • In February 2008, Microsoft announced that the XBOX 360 would support user generated games. The Xbox is the only console to do so.
  • In April 2008, Microsoft reported third quarter earnings and the results for the entertainment division, which includes all Xbox products, reported a 68% increase in profits from the same period a year earlier. This is the third consecutive quarter that this division has posted profits, which has only seen one profitable quarter prior to the fiscal year 2008.[3]
  • Despite much-discussed features like wireless music sharing, the Zune has not experienced the success of the Xbox or Xbox 360; in its first iteration it was not much of a threat to the product it was designed to knock out, the Apple iPod. However, the 2nd generation Zunes provide a much sleeker package that comes very close to matching the appeal of the iPod Classic. In its attempt to appeal to a younger crowd, Microsoft has also allowed customers to customize their Zunes with laser etchings by notable artists.

[edit] Competition

Microsoft's involvement in many different aspects of technology and computing result in competitive pressure from a number of different sources:

  • Apple (AAPL) and Oracle (ORCL): in the world of operating systems, Oracle is a far greater threat to Microsoft than Apple. Despite a recent consumer migration towards Apple desktops and iBooks, especially in the younger generations, Apple has a wide gap to make up in most corporate environments compared to Microsoft's Windows. (And as for private consumers, Microsoft has enjoyed a kind of synergy with Apple since the release of Windows and Office for Apple.) However, Oracle is a different story and stands poised to challenge Microsoft, both obliquely through its support of Lintel (Linux OS plus Intel processor chips), and directly in replacing Microsoft's developer base with its own improved Linux-based developer platform).
  • Google (GOOG) and Yahoo! (YHOO) are Microsoft's primary competitors in Internet Services, and both currently outperform Microsoft by wide margin--in 2006, Google held 43% market share in searches, Yahoo! held 23%, and Microsoft only 7%. Google is a particular threat because it is also expanding into browser-based applications, with programs like Google Spreadsheet and Writely beginning to challenge Microsoft's traditional desktop-based Office suite. While Google's software offerings do not yet pose any real threat to Microsoft Office (for instance, Spreadsheet's security capabilities are many steps behind Microsoft Excel's), new versions may begin to close the gap. Google's actions have made the rise of browser-based applications an increasing threat for Microsoft which it could not prudently ignore.
Gross Rev. ($M) Market Share
2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007
Microsoft (MSFT) (advertising revenues only) 1,500 1,600 2,000 8% 7% 6%
year over year growth 8% 7%
Google (GOOG) 6,000 10,500 16,000 32% 43% 51%
year over year growth 73% 53%
Yahoo! (YHOO) 4,600 5,600 6,500 25% 23% 21%
year over year growth 22% 18%

Source: Company Data

  • Sony (SNE) and Nintendo (NTDOY): Microsoft's two primary competitors in the Entertainment sector both have much more history in the industry than the Xbox-touting newcomer does. However, Nintendo's gaming system has no pretensions to the "media center" status that the Xbox and PS3 try for with their integrated HDTV and Blu-Ray technologies. This puts the price of the Wii much lower, but it also removes Nintendo from participation in the bigger race: dominance in the media center, and tech advantage in manufacturing next-generation-graphics player consoles. As for Sony, PS3's prominence and potential recovery remains a very real threat for the Xbox 360. However, Sony's botched launching process significantly reduced introductory momentum and excitement surrounding the PS3, and the prohibitively expensive system may suffer even more if Microsoft delivers on anticipated Xbox price cuts.

Other competitors include SAP (servers), Red Hat (Linux software), Symantec (Internet Security) and Cisco (internet telephony).




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      [edit] References

      1. Company Earnings Release, Released 4/24/08, retrieved April 29, 2008.
      2. Microsoft Profit Drops; Forecast May Miss Estimates (Update4), www.bloomberg.com, Retrieved April 29, 2008.
      3. 3.0 3.1 Microsoft's Xbox Division Shows Signs of Maturing?, www.seekingalpha.com, retrieved April 29, 2008.
      4. Yahoo: Not Opposed to Microsoft Deal, At Right Price., SeattlePI, retrieved April 29, 2008.
      5. Microsoft Won't Raise Yahoo Bid as Proxy Fight Looms (Update9), www.bloomberg.com, Retrieved April 29, 2008.
      6. ebay , 2007 10-K, Item 15, Pg 80
      7. ebay , 2007 10-K, Item 7, Pg 53
      8. GOOG , 2007 10-K, Item 8, Pg 68
      9. GOOG, 10-K 2007, Item 7, Pg 44
      10. 2007 MSFT, 10-K, Item 6, Page 19
      11. 2007 MSFT, 10-K, Item 7, Page 24
      12. 2007 AOL, 10-K, Item 15, Pg 85
      13. AOL 10-K, 2007, Item 14, Pg 128
      14. 2007 AOL, 10-K, Item 15, Pg 128
      15. YHOO, 2007 10-K, Item 7, Pg 40
      16. YHOO, 2007 10-K, Item 8, Pg 60
      17. YHOO, 2007 10-K, Item 7, Pg 39
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