Microsoft (MSFT)

bearsh becuse i though that "Windows 7" gain 50.00 or 81 but its in a support lines for 2yrs now $30 base range it will not go anywhere for awhile my forcast is like 2012 it will hit 50 marker Good Luck on trading

Microsoft's investments probably will not pay off significantly for at least a year or two. With heavy long-range funding directed towards its Online Services, Entertainment, and Business divisions, Microsoft faces a pronounced lack of pricing and acquisition leverage in the near term.

Microsoft currently faces strategic challenges to its core businesses from Apple and Google. Apple's share of the consumer PC market, while still significantly smaller than Microsoft's, has enjoyed significant recent growth, buoyed by the "halo effect" of the iPod on Apple PCs. Meanwhile, Google is starting to deploy free Web-based applications, such as Google Docs and Spreadsheets, that provide a useful subset of the functionality that Microsoft Office provides. If Microsoft does not successfully compete against these companies over the next few years, their Office and Windows revenues are likely to erode.

Historically, Microsoft has failed to forsee the early development of new markets: e.g., the Internet (see Netscape), Portals (see Altavista and Yahoo!), Search Engines (as in Google), SEO (Google), Social networking (with MySpace). Its approach has been to await developments and then use its manpower, marketing muscle, and money to grab market share. It compensates for the difficiencies of its initial products with a program of patiently continuing to make further investments with the hope that in time its products untimately become well regarded.

While Microsoft eventually becomes a strong vendor of "real" product which sometimes provide state-of-the-art IT solutions, it has demonstrated a deficiency of strong analysts and market visionnaires, Absent these resources, they experience difficulties competing effectively against small companies with fresh ideas.

Get rid of Balmer and get someone with new ideas to head up the "Titanic" before it hits the ice. It's a shame that the investment community holds so much MSFT and yet sells on such strong earnings and growth numbers. It must be General Balmer they don't believe in. Here's hoping they can stay clear of the iceberg. It is a great company and should get back the credit they once commanded.

JGG

In a recurring example of an apparent corporate committment to be/become #1 or a major #2 competitor in each of the markets it enters, Microsoft has repeatedly been distracted by a willingness to expend huge amounts of cash to purchase either Yahoo in its entirety, or to effect a more modest and slimmed down purchase of the Yahoo search property. The latest word of that eagerness appears in The New York Times of May 28, 2009 article headlining, "Yahoo Still Open to Microsoft Deal at Right Price." One of Wikinvest's contributors, David Turetsky ("richSOB"), posted this comment on The New York Times web site summarizing the issue:

"I thought Steve Ballmer had it right when he reflected that Microsoft had “moved on” from doing a deal with Yahoo

And Carol Bartz, Yahoo’s new CEO, certainly has it right when she teases about the possibility of a sale in those new units of U.S. currency, “boatloads” and “big boatloads”

I can understand why Yahoo would strategically welcome such a transfusion of cash in a slowing economy whose worse days may still lie ahead and whose best days of technological leadership are behind it. For Microsoft, a deal has the allure of a quick fix for its market share in search, but over time that hefty purchase price will make less and less sense as Microsoft must continue to invest in digesting the purchase, updating the technology, all the while suffering the inevitable erosion of the combined customer base

That critical mass may well turn out to be an expensive illusion and a huge strategic distraction

Why not instead consider the purchase of The New York Times?"

Separately, in the same edition of The New York Times, "Bloodied by Google, Microsoft Tries Again on Search," Mr. Ballmer is cited as "no longer interested in buying Yahoo but still hopes the two companies will find a way to team up to take on Google in search, and talks on a partnership are continuing." The article describes a newly enhanced search engine, newly labeled "Bing," soon available at www.bing.com, which attempts to go beyond the capabilities of current search engines and which would seem to represent a more promising investment of resources

It should also be noted that the Times article expressing a continuing interest in a sale by Yahoo may represent Yahoo's perspective and not be indicative of any current purchase interest by Microsoft

The appointment of a new CEO at Yahoo in January 2009 and the considerable deterioration of Yahoo's stock price along with the continued interest in Yahoo's search engine by Microsoft suggest some likelihood that an offer for such an acquisition by Microsoft is of continuing interest to Microsoft, but it is difficult to see why Yahoo would agree to such a sale which would radically reshape and downsize its profile in the marketplace. Absent affirmative informal talks between the two companies, no formal public offer should be expected. While Microsoft feels considerable internal pressure to have a more competitive search engine offering to market leader Google, it is not at all clear that the price Microsoft would have to pay to purchase Yahoo's search engine would in fact be economically justifiable. Failing such a justification, the stock price in such a scenario would be expected to suffer after some initial enthusiasm

While Microsoft's new retail store initiative is largely irrelevant to their sales, the company may feel advised to pursue this path based on two principal considerations: the enormous success of Apple's retail store network is a compelling argument to explore the possibilities of this space notwithstanding the failures of Gateway and Dell in this segment of the marketplace; Microsoft may view this venue as a means to explore consumer sentiment and do some useful market research in the background

The fact that they have hired an executive with a background from Walmart's retail operations does not seem to be particularly well thought out. If the company is to break out of its shell, a newer vision is required than what is found at Walmart. Longer term, Microsoft may well conclude that this initiative is not only irrelevant but also a distraction and not a particularly fruitful source of market research but one difficult to shoot down without actually running it out

Microsoft has attempted to enter the mp3 player industry with the Zune. Unfortunately, sales continue to decline and it has failed to gain market share. According to its latest 10Q, revenues further decline by $100M in the last quarter. The product itself also has problems. Earlier this year, Microsoft's online support was flooded with complaints because the devices crashed.

There is also a lot of speculation out there that Microsoft might still be trying to acquire Yahoo. If so, can we honestly expect it to take market share away from Google?

GM's (General Motors) Chief Systems & Technology Officer Fred Killeen announced that their company will choose to not upgrade their system computers to the Vista operating system in anticipation of Windows 7, the multi-touch function successor of Vista, which will probably not debut until around 2010. Expect other companies to follow suit, thereby slowing down Microsoft's sales growth in the short run, at least.

Free software is becoming easier to obtain with the spread of broadband internet. People will have less reason to buy the software, and the prices for software will go down reducing profit margins.

Linux OS is being adopted in emerging markets which will hurt growth. Earlier in April 08, Micorsoft Corp. (MSFT) announced its second "Fair Play Day" in 14 Latin American countries, where investigations led to the seizure of more than 160,000 counterfeit copies of Microsoft software. The contraband had an estimated street value of $18.2 million. This is just the latest attempt by the software giant to try to stem the rising tide of counterfeit products that costs the company millions of dollars annually in some of its most promising markets.

"The crackdowns are part of Microsoft’s global Genuine Software Initiative, which aims to help protect legitimate distributors and customers from the effects of software piracy," said Microsoft SA partner executive Mark Reynolds. Microsoft is also trying to protect its bottom line, which has been sharply undermined by the rise in piracy. For its fiscal third quarter ended March 31, Microsoft net income fell 11% to $4.39 billion, or 47 cents a share, mostly the result of a 24% drop in sales for the company’s flagship Windows software.

Microsoft’s general manager of investor relations, Colleen Healy, attributed much of the sales decline to the cottage industry that has sprouted around an upswing in the number of unlicensed PCs on the market. "Q3 was a tough quarter on the unlicensed front," Healy told CNET. "We had been making gains there for the past several quarters."

The company made special notice of it in its fiscal third-quarter earnings, released Friday: "While piracy adversely affects U.S. revenue, the impact on revenue from outside the U.S. is more significant, particularly in countries where laws are less protective of intellectual property rights. Similarly, the absence of harmonized patent laws makes it more difficult to ensure consistent respect for patent rights," the company said.

Microsoft's investments probably will not pay off significantly for at least a year or two. With heavy long-range funding directed towards its Online Services, Entertainment, and Business divisions, Microsoft faces a pronounced lack of pricing and acquisition leverage in the near term.

Slowing PC growth is problematic for Microsoft, whose core Client Division business driver remains pre-installation of Windows in new PCs. The rate of growth in PC shipping is expected to be around 9% in 2007, a drop of about 5% from the 14% growth rate of 2006.

On the same day and shortly after Yahoo's chief financial officer said that he is not opposed to selling the company's search business, his resignation from the company was disclosed in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Gerald Horkan, Yahoo's senior vice president of corporate strategy and a point person in its talks with Microsoft, left the company a few weeks ago.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) profit fell 32% to $2.98 billion, or 33 cents per share, in its fiscal third quarter ended March 31, 2009. Sales fell 6% to $13.7 billion. In January, Microsoft announced its first large-scale job cuts in the company’s 34-year history, slashing 1,400 positions during the third quarter with another 3,600 expected to be cut by mid-2010.

MSFT is on the way out. Why? Because it doesn't make sense to have to wait 10 minutes for the software to boot up. As Windows has gotten bigger and bigger over the years, it has ended up completely impractical. As this March 2009 article in MarketWatch points out, low cost PCs are now available that put the cost of purchasing MSFT software out of the range of sensibility. MSFT has failed to adapt their business model to even the simplest practicalities of consumers and will soon start to fade away as Linux, for one, offers superior practicality.

You might as well put your money in a CD or some type of savings account. The growth of this company is too slow and the stock barely moves. Unless the XBOX 360 is their only business, the likelihood is that the stock price will be a laggard in the stock market. STAY AWAY!