NBTY (NTY)

For NBTY, the slowdown hit hard in the December 2007 quarter with flat sales and falling margins. That said, the company appears well prepared to weather a slowdown, having cut its debt load from $500 million to $210 million over the last two years. Moody’s recently upgraded its outlook to positive, which is nice for a company with high yield debt in a time of extreme credit market jitters.

The wholesale division has been the company’s strong point, with improving gross margins over the last year. The other half of the business has been poor, requiring store closings in North America. Although European retail performed relatively well in 2007, it was primarily due to currency related issues. In the first quarter, European retail sales declined 4% in local currency.

For NBTY, the slowdown hit hard in the December 2007 quarter with flat sales and falling margins. That said, the company appears well prepared to weather a slowdown, having cut its debt load from $500 million to $210 million over the last two years. Moody’s recently upgraded its outlook to positive, which is nice for a company with high yield debt in a time of extreme credit market jitters.

The wholesale division has been the company’s strong point, with improving gross margins over the last year. The other half of the business has been poor, requiring store closings in North America. Although European retail performed relatively well in 2007, it was primarily due to currency related issues. In the first quarter, European retail sales declined 4% in local currency.

There are a few concerns over earnings quality. For example, in each of the last two years the company has reserved less than the actual amount charged for sales returns, bad debt and promotional incentives (an under-reserving trifecta.) However, overall earnings quality measured using the accrual ratio appears strong.

NBTY is trying to right the retail ship through its store closings and other cost saving moves. The company ended 2007 with 35 fewer stores than it started with. 71 leases are due for renewal in 2008, and the company expects to close 23 more in 2008. NBTY also plans 10 to 12 new store openings this year. In the first quarter, five stores were closed and two opened. These efforts will only be made more difficult if a recession materializes.