Nam Tai Electronics (NTE)

Over the last 5 years, NTE has been remarkably consistent in its FCF generation despite the cyclical, competitive industry they operate in. 2004's FCF result of $36M was the weakest result in that 5 year time span. My arbitrary $20M is an attempt to account for a cyclical downturn hitting NTE and the industry.

I am also cognizant of the very real possibility that NTE could slip into negative earnings and cash flow if the downturn is severe. However, the strength of NTE's balance sheet provides an additional margin of safety. With $272M in cash ($6 per share) and no meaningful debt, NTE has insulation against both adverse economic fundamentals and the credit crunch. While it's tempting to take out the cash and value company's business at less than $3 per share, much of the cash will be eaten up by ~$160M or so of capex by 2009. Even so, the company is on more than solid footing and should have over $100M cash on hand, assuming flat results over the next year and a half.

Additionally, the company pays a very high (if fluctuating) dividend, currently near 10%. This ensures shareholders get some return for a foreign stock with low liquidity and bolsters investor confidence.

Very current capabilities for manufacturing.