NAV » Topics » Assumptions

This excerpt taken from the NAV 10-K filed Dec 30, 2008.

Assumptions

The weighted average rate assumptions used in determining benefit obligations for the years ended October 31, 2008 and 2007 were:

 

     Pension Benefits     Health and Life
Insurance Benefits
 
     2008     2007     2008     2007  

Discount rate used to determine present value of benefit obligation at end of year

   8.3 %   6.0 %   8.4 %   6.1 %

Expected rate of increase in future compensation levels

   3.5 %   3.5 %   —       —    

The weighted average rate assumptions used in determining net postretirement benefits expense for 2008, 2007, and 2006 were:

 

     Pension Benefits     Health and Life Insurance Benefits  
     2008     2007     2006     2008     2007     2006  

Discount rate

   6.0 %   5.6 %   5.5 %   6.1 %   5.7 %   5.6 %

Expected long-term rate of return on plan assets

   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %

Expected rate of increase in future compensation levels

   3.5 %   3.5 %   3.5 %   —       —       —    

The actuarial assumptions used to compute the net postretirement benefits (income) expense is based upon information available as of the beginning of the year, specifically market interest rates, past experience, and our best estimate of future economic conditions. Changes in these assumptions may impact the measurement of future benefit costs and obligations. In computing future costs and obligations, we must make assumptions about such things as employee mortality and turnover, expected salary and wage increases, discount rates, expected returns on plan assets, and expected future cost increases. Three of these items have a significant impact on the level of expense recognized: (i) discount rates, (ii) expected rates of return on plan assets, and (iii) healthcare cost trend rates.

We estimate the discount rate for our U.S. pension and OPEB obligations by matching anticipated future benefit payments for the plans to the Citigroup yield curve to establish a weighted average discount rate for each plan.

 

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Table of Contents

Navistar International Corporation

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued)

 

Health care cost trend rates have been established through a review of actual recent cost trends and projected future trends. Our retiree medical trend assumptions are our best estimate of expected inflationary increases to healthcare costs. Due to the number of former employees and their beneficiaries included in our retiree population (approximately 43,000), the trend assumptions are based upon both our specific trends and nationally expected trends.

We determine our assumption as to expected return on plan assets by evaluating both historical returns as well as estimates of future returns. Specifically, we analyze the average historical broad market returns for various periods of time over the past 100 years for equities and over a 30-year period for fixed income securities, and adjust the computed amount for any expected changes in the long-term outlook for both the equity and fixed income markets. We consider the current asset mix as well as our targeted asset mix when establishing the expected return on plan assets.

The weighted average rate of increase in the per capita cost of postretirement health care benefits provided through U.S. plans representing 92% of our other postretirement benefit obligation, is projected to be 7.9% in 2009 and was 7.8% for 2008. Our projections assume that the rate will decrease to 5% by the year 2014 and remain at that level each year thereafter.

The effect of changing the health care cost trend rate by one-percentage point for each future year is as follows:

 

     One-Percentage
Point Increase
   One-Percentage
Point Decrease
 
(in millions)            

Effect on total of service and interest cost components

   $   14    $   (12 )

Effect on postretirement benefit obligation

     115      (100 )
This excerpt taken from the NAV 10-K filed May 29, 2008.

Assumptions

The weighted average rate assumptions used in determining benefit obligations for the years ended October 31, 2007 and 2006 were:

 

     Pension Benefits     Health and Life
Insurance Benefits
 
     2007     2006     2007     2006  

Discount rate used to determine present value of benefit obligation at end of year

   6.0 %   5.6 %   6.1 %   5.7 %

Expected rate of increase in future compensation levels

   3.5 %   3.5 %   —       —    

The weighted average rate assumptions used in determining net postretirement benefit expense for 2007, 2006, and 2005 were:

 

     Pension Benefits     Health and Life Insurance Benefits  
     2007     2006     2005     2007     2006     2005  

Discount rate

   5.6 %   5.5 %   5.4 %   5.7 %   5.6 %   5.4 %

Expected long-term rate of return on plan assets

   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %   9.0 %

Expected rate of increase in future compensation levels

   3.5 %   3.5 %   3.5 %   —       —       —    

The actuarial assumptions used to compute the net periodic pension cost and postretirement benefit cost are based upon information available as of the beginning of the year, specifically market interest rates, past experience, and our best estimate of future economic conditions. Changes in these assumptions may impact the measurement of future benefit costs and obligations. In computing future costs and obligations, we must make assumptions about such things as employee mortality and turnover, expected salary and wage increases, discount rates, expected returns on plan assets, and expected future cost increases. Three of these items have a significant impact on the level of expense recognized: (i) discount rates, (ii) expected rates of return on plan assets, and (iii) healthcare cost trend rates.

We estimate the discount rate for our U.S. pension and OPEB obligations by matching anticipated future benefit payments for the plans to the Citigroup yield curve to establish a weighted average discount rate for each plan. Health care cost trend rates have been established through a review of actual recent cost trends and projected future trends. Our retiree medical trend assumptions are our best estimate of expected inflationary increases to healthcare costs. Due to the number of former employees and their beneficiaries included in our retiree population (approximately 45,000), the assumptions used are based upon both our specific trends and nationally expected trends.

We determine our assumption as to expected return on plan assets by evaluating both historical returns as well as estimates of future returns. Specifically, we analyze the average historical broad market returns for various periods of time over the past 100 years for equities and over a 30-year period for fixed income securities, and adjust the computed amount for any expected changes in the long-term outlook for both the equity and fixed income markets. We consider the current asset mix as well as our targeted asset mix when establishing the expected return on plan assets.

The weighted average rate of increase in the per capita cost of postretirement health care benefits covered by U.S. plans, which represent 93% of our other postretirement benefit obligation, is projected to be 7.8% in 2008 and was 3.3% in 2007. The rate is projected to decrease to 5% by the year 2012 and remain at that level each year thereafter.

 

114


Table of Contents

Navistar International Corporation

Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements (Continued)

 

The effect of changing the health care cost trend rate by one-percentage point for each future year is as follows:

 

     One-Percentage
Point Increase
   One-Percentage
Point Decrease
 
(in millions)            

Effect on total of service and interest cost components

   $ 16    $ (13 )

Effect on postretirement benefit obligation

       185        (157 )

EXCERPTS ON THIS PAGE:

10-K
Dec 30, 2008
10-K
May 29, 2008
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