Oilexco ( Oil on Toronto and London )
Analyst Update May 23rd,2008
The Magic Number 30
Joseph Schacter Raised his Forecast for Oilexco from $ 25 to $ 30
Based on 2008 production rising at year end to 45,000 BOE 2009 production at 65,000 BOE and 2010 production at 100,000 BOE NOTE : This assumes no further discoveries until 2010.
NOW - do the math.
100,000 BOE was estimated by Schacter to equal more than $14 of cash flow a share ( in past appearances ) based on oil at $80 a barrel.. You can estimate the cash flow when current prices equal more than a 50% improvement on that number. The stock selling price for junior oil producers is 4 to 5 times cash flow. Again Schacter's $30 target in twelve months is conservative measured against the potential for 2010 and against potential discoveries by that time.
Analysts Update May 14 , 2008
Oilexco’s quarterly results came out two days ago and now the analysts have started making their comments available.
Jamie Somerville who follows the Oilexco story for Genuity Capital found some good news and some bad news. The bad news was that production of 20,714 boe/d was below expectations of 21,500. Which as we said, is the bad news. However, for those looking for good news, he pointed out that operating costs of $8.43 boe, were significantly below expectations of $12.20 boe. The North Sea is traditionally thought of a high cost area of operation, so this is definitely a step in the right direction. Somerville adds, “We expect the company’s capital spending to increase over coming quarters as it aggressively pursues its exploration and development program for the year.”
TARGETS for Oilexco : Somerville has a target on Oilexco of $21.50. Fred Kozak of Canaccord updates his thoughts and maintains a target of $24.00 and of course Josef Schachter has a target of $25.00. It’s a story we will continue to follow, particularly for later this year when production numbers should increase dramatically.
and in another report Cannacord added :
The company’s stock, which has appreciated more than 25% in the past month, still has a few more near-term catalysts, including the maximization and upgrades of the Balmoral Floating Production Vessel, which was acquired before the end of 2007. The facility, prior to Oilexco’s production and upgrades was designed to approximately process 65,000 bbl/d of throughput, was only processing less than 5% of this capability. Also, the next exploration well (Moth prospect) is anticipated to being completed at the end of May. As well, there is further exploration drilling around the Shelley and Balmoral area on farm-in prospects as well as signing several agreement that should provided the company greater presence in the U.K. North Sea.