Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG)

UCLs, LCLs, UWLs and LWLs for Index 1 and 2 for Voltage Classes Containing Four or More Transmission Line Circuits with Forced Outages^(IMS) for Five or More Years

        The UCLs, UWLs, LWLs, and LCLs for the control charts for each Voltage Class containing four or more Transmission Line Circuits with Forced Outages^(IMS) shall be determined by bootstrap resampling methods as follows: The available historical data for Index 1 and 2 will each be entered into columns. A "seed" is then selected prior to beginning the sampling process. The ISO assigns a number for the "seed" prior to each years development of the control charts. The "seed" allows the user to start the sampling in the same place and get the same results provided the data order hasn't changed. For Index 1, sampling with replacement will occur for the median number of lines per year in a Voltage Class for the time period being evaluated. A sample, the size of which is the median number of all Transmission Line Circuits for the period being evaluated, is taken from the column of actual frequency values for all Transmission Line Circuits.    A mean is calculated from this sample and the resulting number will be stored in a separate column. This process, will be repeated 10,000 times in order to create a column of sampling means from the historical data base. The column of sampling means is then ordered from the smallest to largest means. From this column percentiles are determined for a UCL(99.75), a LCL(0.25) a UWL(97.5), and a LWL(2.5). Thus, for one cycle, the limits are determined by resampling from the historical data base, calculating statistics of interest, in this case means, and then estimating appropriate limits from the resampling means. Ten cycles of this same process are necessary to get 10 values each of UCLs, LCLs, UWLs, and LWLs. The average for the ten values of each limit is taken to provide the UCL, LCL, UWL, and LWL values used in analyzing annual performance. The procedure is repeated for Index 2 forming means for the median number of lines with Forced Outages^(IMS) in this Voltage Class for the time period being evaluated. See Bootstrapping—A Nonparametric Approach to Statistical Inference (1993) by Christopher Z. Mooney and Robert D. Duval, Sage Publications with ISBN 0-8039-5381-X, and An Introduction to the Bootstrap (1993) by Bradley Efron and Robert J. Tibshirani, Chapman and Hall Publishing with ISBN 0-412-04231-2 for further information.

60

        Consider an example to illustrate how the Bootstrap procedure works for one cycle of the ten required. Assume that a Voltage Class has approximately 20 Transmission Line Circuits per year with a history of ten years. Furthermore, assume that about 15 Transmission Line Circuits per year experience Forced Outages. Therefore, there are 10 × 15 = 150 Forced Outage^(IMS) durations available for bootstrap sampling. Place these 150 Forced Outage^(IMS) durations in a column, say "outdur"... in a specified order . The order is automatically provided in the bootstrap algorithm developed by the ISO and made available to the PTO. The bootstrap algorithm will sample 15 rows from "outdur" with replacement. That is, any row may, by chance, be sampled more than once. From these 15 values determine the sample mean and place this in another column, say"boot". Repeat this sampling process 10,000 times adding the new means to "boot". The column "boot" now has 10,000 means from samples of size 15 from the original Forced Outage^(IMS) duration data for this Voltage Class. The next step is to locate the appropriate percentiles from these means for use in determining the control chart limits for one cycle. This is accomplished by ordering the column "boot" from smallest to largest mean and restoring these ordered means in "boot". The percentiles which are needed are 99.75% (UCL), 97.50% (UWL), 2.50% (LWL) and 0.25% (LCL). These are easily estimated from the sorted means by finding the associated rows in the column "boot". For example, LWL will be estimated as the average of the 250th and 251st rows in column "boot". Likewise the other limits will be determined. Of course, the CL is the actual mean average for 15 lines over the ten years using the formulas in Section 4.3.2.1. This example is for one cycle. Nine more cycles of this process will establish the more accurate control and warning limits necessary to evaluate a PTO's annual performance.