This excerpt taken from the PGR 10-K filed Mar 1, 2010.
Our insurance operating results may be materially adversely affected by severe weather conditions or other catastrophic events.
Catastrophes can be caused by natural events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hailstorms, severe winter weather and fires, or other events, such as explosions, terrorist attacks, riots, and hazardous material releases. The extent of insured losses from a catastrophe is a function of both our total net insured exposure in the area affected by the event and the nature and severity of the event. When they occur with enough severity, our financial performance, cash flows, and results of operations could be materially adversely affected.
The incidence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable. In addition, changing climate conditions may increase the frequency of natural disasters such as hurricanes, tornadoes, other storms and fires, and we will continue to monitor and assess scientific information relating to such developments. We use catastrophe modeling tools to help manage our exposures to such events, but those tools are based on historical data and other assumptions that may provide projections that are materially different from the actual events. As a result, increased levels of hurricanes and other storms could have a material and adverse effect on our insurance operating results.