Reliance Industries (BOM:500325)

QUOTE AND NEWS
The Hindu Business Line  Jan 13  Comment 
Dalal Street is estimating a 15 per cent rise in sales revenue year-on-year for energy and telecom giant Reliance Industries to ₹65,000 crore for the December 2016 quarter. While benefits from a ben...
The Hindu Business Line  Jan 13  Comment 
About a dozen companies including DCB Bank, TV18 Broadcast, Network18 Media, Infomedia Press (on Saturday) and Reliance Industries, Geometric, LIC Housing Finance, Jay Bharat Maruti, HIL and Dewan Ho...
The Economic Times  Jan 11  Comment 
"Reliance Industries will complete investment of Rs 1.25 lakh crore in refinery and petrochemical expansion projects in Gujarat by March," Ambani said.
The Economic Times  Jan 11  Comment 
Buy Reliance Industries Ltd. at a price target of Rs 1125 and a stop loss at Rs 1070 from entry point
The Economic Times  Jan 4  Comment 
Sell Reliance Industries Ltd. at a price target of Rs 1020 and a stop loss at Rs 1099 from entry point
The Economic Times  Dec 29  Comment 
Reliance Industries on Wednesday said it has successfully commissioned the first phase of its 2.2 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) para-xylene (PX) plant at Gujarat's Jamnagar.
The Economic Times  Dec 27  Comment 
Buy Reliance Industries Ltd. at a price target of Rs 1090 and a stop loss at Rs 1015 from entry point
The Economic Times  Dec 14  Comment 
Buy Reliance Industries Ltd. at a price target of Rs 1085 and a stop loss at Rs 1019 from entry point
The Economic Times  Dec 12  Comment 
RIL and its partners BP Plc of the UK and Canada's Niko Resources had on November 11 brought an arbitration notice against the government, disputing the $1.55 billion demand.
The Economic Times  Dec 11  Comment 
RIL's market valuation zoomed by Rs 10,087.57 crore, to Rs 3,32,922.08 crore, while m-cap of SBI soared by Rs 9,004.85 crore to Rs 2,06,490.48 crore.​





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Business Profile

Reliance Industries (RIL), established in 1966, is the flagship company of the Reliance group. The company started with textiles and thereafter backward vertical integrated in polyester, fiber intermediates, plastics, petrochemicals, petroleum refining and oil and gas exploration and production.

RIL is a leading producer of polyester yarn and fiber producer and amongst the major producers of petrochemical products in the world.

The company`s operations can be classified into three segments that of petroleum refining and marketing business, petrochemicals business and others (including crude oil and natural gas exploration and production business)

Presently, the company`s activities span exploration and production of oil and gas, petroleum refining and marketing, petrochemicals (polyester, fibre intermediates, plastics and chemicals), textiles and retail.

Some of RIL`s group companies include Reliance Petroleum (RPL), Reliance Retail, Indian Petrochemicals Corporation (IPCL) and Reliance Industrial Infrastructure.

RIL has manufacturing facilities at Naroda, Patalganga, Hazira and Jamnagar.


RIL has rallied 16% over last month even as refining margins have fallen. Lower-thananticipated margins present the biggest risk to our estimates and valuation. We maintain our Rs1,850 target price and downgrade the stock from Hold to Sell.

Refining looking shaky Singapore complex refining margins have averaged US$4.6/bbl to date in 2QFY09, according to Reuters, compared to US$8.2/bbl in 1QFY09 and US$6.4/bbl in 2QFY08. Gasoline margins have been weak even in the traditionally strong April-July period as US demand has declined. Given US car manufacturers are replacing their truck plants with small car plants, this decline could be structural rather than cyclical. Middle distillate (diesel/jet fuel) margins have been very strong (US$30/bbl+) since March 2008, but have dropped by US$10/bbl in August. Basically, demand growth appears to be slowing down just as new refining capacity is set come on stream. We believe the refining cycle will turn down from FY09 and forecast RIL GRMs will decline from US$15/bbl in FY08 to US$12.5/bbl in FY10. But, just as the upside in GRMs over last three years was under-estimated by the market (RIL GRM in FY04 was US$6.4/bbl), it is possible the downside will also end up looking worse.

Upsides all in E&P We have assumed that RIL will sell 40mmscmd of gas to RNRL/NTPC for the next 17 years at the disputed contract price (US$2.6mmbtu), however litigation on this issue is continuing. If there were no such liability, our FY10 and FY11 EPS estimates would rise to Rs206 and Rs192 respectively and our valuation could increase to Rs2,000, assuming no other changes. There is potential for surprises in terms of large new discoveries. However, our valuation is based on a gross reserve estimate of 7.7bn boe by March 2009, compared to RIL's disclosed 2P reserve estimate of 4.4bn boe.

Downgraded to Sell, target price Rs1,850 We maintain our EPS estimates and our SOTP-based target price, which values RIL as of end- FY09 (post conversion of promoter warrants). Our estimates factor in no government policy risks from any imposition of minimum alternate tax (MAT) on Reliance Petroleum, loss of tax holiday for gas production or any export tax on refined products.

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