Trading around $6.00 in mid-February, RCL is a real bargain. Earnings estimates for fiscal year 2009 average $1.20 a share and the low estimate for 2010 earnings is $0.85. Even if the 2009 and 2010 low estimates of a 26 cent loss and 85 cent profit came true, a six-dollar investment today would lead to a 10% cumulative return (a net profit of 59 cents over two years) by 2010 - keep in mind this is the worst possible scenario according to analysts. While it does appear that the cruise industry will suffer from lack of tourists, RCL is just priced too low to be neglected.
In 2007, 10.2 million of 12.6 million cruises taken were taken by North Americans. Because markets in other continents are essentially nonexistent, RCL has opportunities aplenty to expand and attract a global customer base and see strong growth.