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Market Intelligence Center  Dec 18  Comment 
After Wednesday’s trading in Ryland Group Inc (RYL) MarketIntelligenceCenter.com's patented algorithms uncovered a trade that offers a 7.56% return or 22.99% on an annualized basis (for comparison purposes only), while providing 7.28% downside...
Market Intelligence Center  Dec 8  Comment 
Ryland Group Inc (RYL) is an excellent choice for either a diagonal spread or a covered call expiring in Apr. '15 at the $37.00 level according to MarketIntelligenceCenter.com’s patented algorithms.A covered call on Ryland Group for a net debit...
Market Intelligence Center  Nov 10  Comment 
Ryland Group Inc (RYL) traded between $36.18 and $37.06 before closing at $36.72 Friday and presents some attractive trading opportunities today according to MarketIntelligenceCenter.com's patented algorithms. The computer program that picks...
TheStreet.com  Oct 8  Comment 
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Ryland Group Inc. were downgraded by KeyBanc to "underweight" from "hold"awith a price target of $30. "We lower our rating on The Ryland Group, Inc. to underweight from hold with a $30 target as we expect:...
Market Intelligence Center  Sep 30  Comment 
After closing Monday at $33.91, Ryland Group Inc (RYL) presents an attractive opportunity to get a 5.91% return in just 109 days, which is an annualized return of 19.77% (for comparison purposes only). To enter this trade, sell one Jan. '15 $33.00...
DailyFinance  Sep 24  Comment 
Ryland Homes is thrilled to introduce homebuyers to a whole new side of Indy living. Park Meridian offers the best of both worlds, with a stunning collection of brand-new townhomes that blend city-style convenience with...
DailyFinance  Sep 23  Comment 
Ryland Homes, one of the nation’s premier new homebuilders, is proud to invite homebuyers throughout the Washington, D.C. metro region to visit its wide selection of beautifully decorated model homes at 3 incredible ...
DailyFinance  Sep 16  Comment 
Ryland Homes is excited to announce the Grand Opening of two spectacular new townhome models at the Hyett’s Crossing community in Middletown, Delaware. The all-new, fully decorated Tydings and Tilden model homes will...
Market Intelligence Center  Sep 4  Comment 
MarketIntelligenceCenter.com's option-trade picking algorithms have identified an attractive covered-call trade on Ryland Group Inc (RYL). Look at the Jan. '15 $34.00 covered call for a net debit in the $31.86 area. This trade has a duration of...




 
TOP CONTRIBUTORS

Ryland Group is a leading US homebuilder. The company sold over 15,392 homes in 2006 at an average selling price of $295,000, higher than the national median of around $210,000.[1] Offerings range anywhere from under $98,000 to over $800,000, and the company operates in 25 states and in all areas of the United States (see chart below). Most homes are single-family detached units, though the company also sells condominium units and attached homes.[2] Around 84% of the company's customers also take out their mortgage from Ryland's financing segment.[3]

The company operates in a highly cyclical industry. New home construction, home prices and new home sales volume are heavily dependent upon job growth, interest rates, and the business cycle at large. Low interest rates and high job growth bode well for homebuilding, but as the recent subprime lending crisis and depressed housing market has illustrated, things can sour quickly and the business can be difficult to predict. Key homebuilding numbers, such as housing starts and existing home sales have continued to come in weak of late. Homebuilding is highly competitive and marked by few barriers to entry, low profit margins, and high financial leverage.

Financial Information and Operating Metrics

Below is a breakdown of company revenue by region, along with a chart depicting the company's revenue and operating profit. Recently, the company's operating profit has been hit largely by falling home prices. As discussed below, when home prices in the company's geographic operating areas fall, the company must either write down the value of its unsold home inventory or, when it does sell the inventory, take a substantial hit to its margins. This is largely because of the lag time between constructing and then selling a new home -- if the company builds a home at $150,000 and expects to sell it at $200,000 given market prices, any change in the market value of the home erodes the originally anticipated $50,000 profit because the construction expense is largely fixed.

[4]
[5]

The following is a table of relevant operating metrics, including the number of homes sold (New Orders), average price per home and the company's stated housing inventory at year end. The company's total units sold fell in 2006 due to soft demand in the wake of the downturn in the housing market.

Metric 2004 2005 2006
Homes Sold151011667315392
Avg. Price/Home$251,000 $278,000 $295,000
Inventory year end$2,024 $2,580 $2,771

[6]

More recently, Ryland reported New Orders of 5,302 and 3,700 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Closings were 5,129 and 4,245 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Average Closing Price was approximately $240K. Margins, excluding write-downs were 14.8% in 2010. Selling, G&A costs and Corporate costs were approximately 14% of Revenue in 2010. [7]

Notes on Homebuilder Accounting

The accepted accounting principles for homebuilders can be a bit convoluted, and it is important that investors understand certain non-intuitive accounting methodologies. Here are a few notable accounting conventions for builders that may not be immediately clear to investors:

  • Interest expense and other costs directly associated with construction incurred from home building activities are capitalized until the sale of the home. When the home is sold, these interest expenses, etc. are then incurred as part of the cost of goods sold, and not as separate operating or interest expense. In this note, a 'sold' home is defined as one where the contract for sale is closed, or signed by both parties, and the home has transferred to the purchaser. This 'closing' often takes place four or more months after the contract signing, after the home has been built and has obtained a certificate of occupancy.
  • As such, land and unsold homes owned are not included as part of company property, plant, and equipment, but rather as inventory. The difference is that this land is up for sale as a regular part of the operating business whereas corporate offices and the like are fixed assets not held with the intention of a sale.
  • Inventory is typically evaluated for impairment by considering relative market data and the anticipated cash flows from the property. If management estimates that the expected sum of future cash flows for their inventory is lower than originally modeled, they will write down the value of the inventory. As housing prices across the country fell in 2007, many homebuilders took such write downs.
  • For financial services/mortgage arms, companies generally include one line item for financial service revenue and one for financial service expenses. Builders generally operate as most mortgage originators do today, by issuing a loan to buyers and then selling loans in packages to investors in the form of a mortgage-backed security. Revenue generally includes any interest rate spread earned on the mortgage before it is sold and any servicing fees for those already sold. Similarly, the debt of the financial services arm, used as capital for the company to issue its mortgages, is generally not consolidated on the company's balance sheet. Instead the assets and liabilities of the segment are accounted for using the equity method.

Trends & Drivers

Interest Rates

Interest rates have several critical effects on the company.[8] In general, rising rates spell bad news for all homebuilders for several reasons:

    • 1) As interest rates increase, home owners with floating rate debt or adjustable rate mortgages become more likely to default on their loans and foreclose on their homes. This, in turn, increases the inventory of available homes for sales, lowering prices and increasing options for potential buyers. Also, though the company sells most of the mortgages it originates through its financing segment to investors, it assumes a higher default probability on the mortgages is does hold.
    • 2) As interest rates and/or default rates increase, lenders are more likely to demand greater compensation in the form of higher mortgage rates. When buyer financing is less attractive, purchasing a home becomes less appealing and the company can experience greater difficulty unloading its inventory.
    • 3) When rates are higher, available and existing financing for the company itself becomes less attractive. Getting favorable terms on any new debt to finance construction is more difficult. Also, the company’s interest expense on its floating rate debt increases, pressuring margins and increasing financial risk.

The U.S. Housing Market Cyclicality

Homebuilding is a highly cyclical business and is often a beneficiary and victim of business cycles. Demand for homes is dependent upon the strength of the job market, growth in gross and per capita GDP, the level of interest rates and the availability of mortgage financing.[9] When growth is strong, interest rates are low, and employment is robust, potential first time homeowners and those wishing to relocate can pursue new homes more readily. Thus, more people buy homes, which drives the volume and pricing at which the company can sell its home inventory. On the other hand, high rates, high unemployment and slowing GDP growth hamper demand for new homes, in which case the company can struggle to unload existing inventory and may have to cut back on new home construction.

The subprime crisis and home prices.

As mentioned above, home prices and the level of new home construction are driven by macroeconomic variables like GDP growth, interest rates and employment. In a favorable economic environment, rising housing prices can lead to lax lending standards and, sometimes, exuberance as collateral values rise, which further fuels price increases. As has happened recently, however, home prices across the country can also experience sharp declines when this exuberance catches up to buyers and lenders. Currently, in part because of a vicious cycle fed by the subprime mortgage crisis, in which mortgage borrowers with poor credit histories or little documentation have struggled to meet payments, home prices in many areas have been in a whirlwind of decline. This, in turn, further exacerbates default rates since these borrowers cannot refinance mortgages given deterioration of collateral. The company, of course, assumes the risk of continued price declines and hampered demand in its areas of operations. If home prices stay depressed for extended periods, the company may have to write down the value of its properties or sell them off at heavily reduced gross margins or losses.

Dependence on Texas and the Southeast

The company is heavily dependent on the housing market in Texas (23% of revenue) and the Southeastern United States. (34%)[10] This lack of geographic diversity relative to peers means that the company is more heavily exposed to the ups and downs of just a few markets. This increases the amount of volatility the company can experience in terms of home prices and construction volume. Southeastern states like Florida especially had experienced rapid home price appreciation from 2002-2005, fueled by strong job and population growth, but the state's bubble had burst last year, and continues struggling to rebound.

Competition

The company competes against a highly fragmented base of other homebuilders. These companies may be national or local players and given the highly competitive nature of the industry, competition is stiff and often marked by low margins and low returns on capital. The company also competes for buyers with existing homes that have hit the market, and competes more broadly with other housing alternatives such as apartments, condominiums, and mobile homes.

Below is a table comparing metrics from several competing publicly traded homebuilders. Note that no company has anything close to a dominant national market share, and the industry generally is marked by low operating margins (and high debt to finance construction expenses).[11]

Company Revenue (TTM) Operating Margin 2006 Closings Debt/Equity Market Share[12]
D.R. Horton (DHI)$11,3008%534100.7834.65%
Lennar (LEN)$12,2800%495680.6134.31%
Pulte Homes (PHM)$10,7500%414870.7713.61%
Centex (CTX)$9,570-7%375391.0713.27%
KB Home (KBH)$8,9803%321240.8122.80%
Hovnanian (HOV)$4,800-3%202011.7891.76%
Beazer Homes USA (BZH)$4,2704%175001.1941.52%
Ryland Group (RYL)$3,5309%153920.741.34%
NVR (NVR)$5,36017%151390.2991.32%
M.D.C. Holdings (MDC)$3,4701%131230.5761.14%
Standard Pacific Lp (SPF)$3,3107%107631.4730.94%
Meritage (MTH)$2,5509%104871.0360.91%
Toll Brothers (TOL)$4,65016%86010.6420.75%





Footnotes

  1. Data from RYL 2006 10-K, "Business," and National Association of Realtors
  2. RYL 2006 10-K, "Business," pg 4
  3. RYL 2006 10-K, "Selected Financial Data," pg 27
  4. RYL 2006 10-K, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note B," pg 45
  5. RYL 2006 10-K, "Selected Financial Data," pg 17
  6. Compiled from RYL 2004-2006 10-Ks
  7. Compiled from RYL 2010 10-K
  8. RYL 2006 10-K, "Risk Factors," pg 12
  9. RYL 2006 10-K, "Risk Factors," pg 11
  10. RYL 2006 10-K, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data, Note B," pg 45
  11. All data compiled from companies' annual and, where applicable, quarterly reports
  12. BUILDER Online, Builder 100 Listing 2006
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