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Is Sirius XM Radio is a healthy company, or a struggling company

The answer depends on how much weight you put on various metrics. If the debt is the biggest determining factor than the equity has a lot of question marks. If top line growth and cash flow are the metric then there could be an argument that the company has health and a decent outlook. There is no denying that the company is growing, and that many metrics are seeing better year over year comparisons, but we are now dealing with a merged company, and the unknowns that surround the satellite radio sector.

At this point investors have gone from wild merger anticipation to convert disappointment, to debt worry, to overall desperation. I have said many times that investors in this sector are battle fatigued. Now they are not only battle fatigued, but frustrated, angry, and depressed as well.

An A-La-Carte radio will not solve this situation, nor will “Best Of” programming. The only solution in my opinion rests with the quarterly results and solving the debt issue. We are quite a ways away from knowing the Q3 numbers, and even when they come out they will likely include many merger related expenses. The financial company’s are not yet out of the woods, and thus, all we have are question marks and speculation.

The music is playing, but is it an even keeled classical tune, an upbeat jazz song, or the debt refinancing blues? Only time will tell. With the stock now well below a dollar, will the artist soon be camped out in from of Sirius XM Radio’s headquarters only a block away? I do not see the current situation as that dire, but also know that investors are at their limits and beyond. In my opinion, virtually any financing of the Sirius XM debt would be a welcomed relief at this point. It is hard to fathom, but people may even be happy to see a loan at 15%! Would it reverse the stock? That is another “time will tell” question, but again, the battle fatigued investors are at a point where they will be relieved with a break even day.

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