TM » Topics » ITEM 11. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

This excerpt taken from the TM 20-F filed Jun 24, 2009.

ITEM 11. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Market Risk Disclosures

Toyota is exposed to market risk from changes in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, certain commodity and equity security prices. In order to manage the risk arising from changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, Toyota enters into a variety of derivative financial instruments.

A description of Toyota’s accounting policies for derivative instruments is included in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements and further disclosure is provided in notes 20 and 21 to the consolidated financial statements.

Toyota monitors and manages these financial exposures as an integral part of its overall risk management program, which recognizes the unpredictability of financial markets and seeks to reduce the potentially adverse effects on Toyota’s operating results.

 

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The financial instruments included in the market risk analysis consist of all of Toyota’s cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, finance receivables, securities investments, long-term and short-term debt and all derivative financial instruments. Toyota’s portfolio of derivative financial instruments consists of forward foreign currency exchange contracts, foreign currency options, interest rate swaps, interest rate currency swap agreements and interest rate options. Anticipated transactions denominated in foreign currencies that are covered by Toyota’s derivative hedging are not included in the market risk analysis. Although operating leases are not required to be included, Toyota has included these instruments in determining interest rate risk.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

Toyota has foreign currency exposures related to buying, selling and financing in currencies other than the local currencies in which it operates. Toyota is exposed to foreign currency risk related to future earnings or assets and liabilities that are exposed due to operating cash flows and various financial instruments that are denominated in foreign currencies. Toyota’s most significant foreign currency exposures relate to the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Toyota uses a value-at-risk analysis (“VAR”) to evaluate its exposure to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. The VAR of the combined foreign exchange position represents a potential loss in pre-tax earnings that was estimated to be ¥44.3 billion as of March 31, 2008 and ¥114.1 billion as of March 31, 2009. Based on Toyota's overall currency exposure (including derivative positions), the risk during the year ended March 31, 2009 to pre-tax cash flow from currency movements was on average ¥126.0 billion, with a high of ¥158.9 billion and a low of ¥97.1 billion.

The VAR was estimated by using a Monte Carlo Simulation Method and assumed 95% confidence level on the realization date and a 10-day holding period.

Interest Rate Risk

Toyota is subject to market risk from exposures to changes in interest rates based on its financing, investing and cash management activities. Toyota enters into various financial instrument transactions to maintain the desired level of exposure to the risk of interest rate fluctuations and to minimize interest expense. The potential decrease in fair value resulting from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift in interest rates would be approximately ¥110.6 billion as of March 31, 2008 and ¥55.8 billion as of March 31, 2009.

There are certain shortcomings inherent to the sensitivity analyses presented. The model assumes that interest rate changes are instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve. However, in reality, changes are rarely instantaneous. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they may not react correspondingly to changes in market interest rates. Also, the interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate with changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets may lag behind changes in market rates. Finance receivables are less susceptible to prepayments when interest rates change and, as a result, Toyota’s model does not address prepayment risk for automotive related finance receivables. However, in the event of a change in interest rates, actual loan prepayments may deviate significantly from the assumptions used in the model.

Commodity Price Risk

Commodity price risk is the possibility of higher or lower costs due to changes in the prices of commodities, such as non-ferrous alloys (e.g., aluminum), precious metals (e.g., palladium, platinum and rhodium) and ferrous alloys, which Toyota uses in the production of motor vehicles. Toyota does not use derivative instruments to hedge the price risk associated with the purchase of those commodities and controls its commodity price risk by holding minimum stock levels.

 

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Equity Price Risk

Toyota holds investments in various available-for-sale equity securities that are subject to price risk. The fair value of available-for-sale equity securities was ¥1,177.0 billion as of March 31, 2008 and ¥798.2 billion as of March 31, 2009. The potential change in the fair value of these investments, assuming a 10% change in prices, would be approximately ¥117.7 billion as of March 31, 2008 and ¥79.8 billion as of March 31, 2009.

This excerpt taken from the TM 20-F filed Jun 25, 2008.

ITEM 11. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Market Risk Disclosures

Toyota is exposed to market risk from changes in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates, certain commodity and equity security prices. In order to manage the risk arising from changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, Toyota enters into a variety of derivative financial instruments.

A description of Toyota’s accounting policies for derivative instruments is included in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements and further disclosure is provided in notes 20 and 21 to the consolidated financial statements.

Toyota monitors and manages these financial exposures as an integral part of its overall risk management program, which recognizes the unpredictability of financial markets and seeks to reduce the potentially adverse effects on Toyota’s operating results.

The financial instruments included in the market risk analysis consist of all of Toyota’s cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, finance receivables, securities investments, long-term and short-term debt and all derivative financial instruments. Toyota’s portfolio of derivative financial instruments consists of forward foreign currency exchange contracts, foreign currency options, interest rate swaps, interest rate currency swap agreements and interest rate options. Anticipated transactions denominated in foreign currencies that are covered

 

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by Toyota’s derivative hedging are not included in the market risk analysis. Although operating leases are not required to be included, Toyota has included these instruments in determining interest rate risk.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

Toyota has foreign currency exposures related to buying, selling and financing in currencies other than the local currencies in which it operates. Toyota is exposed to foreign currency risk related to future earnings or assets and liabilities that are exposed due to operating cash flows and various financial instruments that are denominated in foreign currencies. Toyota’s most significant foreign currency exposures relate to the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Toyota uses a value-at-risk analysis (“VAR”) to evaluate its exposure to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. The VAR of the combined foreign exchange position represents a potential loss in pre-tax earnings that was estimated to be ¥33.1 billion as of March 31, 2007 and ¥44.3 billion as of March 31, 2008. Based on Toyota’s overall currency exposure (including derivative positions), the risk during the year ended March 31, 2008 to pre-tax cash flow from currency movements was on average ¥47.0 billion, with a high of ¥53.8 billion and a low of ¥41.9 billion.

The VAR was estimated by using a Monte Carlo Simulation Method and assumed 95% confidence level on the realization date and a 10-day holding period.

Interest Rate Risk

Toyota is subject to market risk from exposures to changes in interest rates based on its financing, investing and cash management activities. Toyota enters into various financial instrument transactions to maintain the desired level of exposure to the risk of interest rate fluctuations and to minimize interest expense. The potential decrease in fair value resulting from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift in interest rates would be approximately ¥99.5 billion as of March 31, 2007 and ¥110.6 billion as of March 31, 2008.

There are certain shortcomings inherent to the sensitivity analyses presented. The model assumes that interest rate changes are instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve. However, in reality, changes are rarely instantaneous. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they may not react correspondingly to changes in market interest rates. Also, the interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate with changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets may lag behind changes in market rates. Finance receivables are less susceptible to prepayments when interest rates change and, as a result, Toyota’s model does not address prepayment risk for automotive related finance receivables. However, in the event of a change in interest rates, actual loan prepayments may deviate significantly from the assumptions used in the model.

Commodity Price Risk

Commodity price risk is the possibility of higher or lower costs due to changes in the prices of commodities, such as non-ferrous alloys (e.g., aluminum), precious metals (e.g., palladium, platinum and rhodium) and ferrous alloys, which Toyota uses in the production of motor vehicles. Toyota does not use derivative instruments to hedge the price risk associated with the purchase of those commodities and controls its commodity price risk by holding minimum stock levels.

Equity Price Risk

Toyota holds investments in various available-for-sale equity securities that are subject to price risk. The fair value of available-for-sale equity securities was ¥1,679.8 billion as of March 31, 2007 and ¥1,177.0 billion as of March 31, 2008. The potential change in the fair value of these investments, assuming a 10% change in prices, would be approximately ¥168.0 billion as of March 31, 2007 and ¥117.7 billion as of March 31, 2008.

This excerpt taken from the TM 20-F filed Jun 25, 2007.

ITEM 11. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Market Risk Disclosures

Toyota is exposed to market risk from changes in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and certain commodity and equity security prices. In order to manage the risk arising from changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, Toyota enters into a variety of derivative financial instruments.

A description of Toyota’s accounting policies for derivative instruments is included in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements and further disclosure is provided in notes 20 and 21 to the consolidated financial statements.

Toyota monitors and manages these financial exposures as an integral part of its overall risk management program, which recognizes the unpredictability of financial markets and seeks to reduce the potentially adverse effects on Toyota’s operating results.

The financial instruments included in the market risk analysis consist of all of Toyota’s cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, finance receivables, securities investments, long-term and short-term debt and all derivative financial instruments. Toyota’s portfolio of derivative financial instruments consists of forward foreign currency exchange contracts, foreign currency options, interest rate swaps, interest rate currency swap agreements and interest rate options. Anticipated transactions denominated in foreign currencies that are covered by Toyota’s derivative hedging are not included in the market risk analysis. Although operating leases are not required to be included, Toyota has included these instruments in determining interest rate risk.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

Toyota has foreign currency exposures related to buying, selling and financing in currencies other than the local currencies in which it operates. Toyota is exposed to foreign currency risk related to future earnings or assets and liabilities that are exposed due to operating cash flows and various financial instruments that are denominated in foreign currencies. Toyota’s most significant foreign currency exposures relate to the U.S. dollar and euro.

 

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Toyota uses a value-at-risk analysis (“VAR”) to evaluate its exposure to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. The value-at-risk of the combined foreign exchange position represents a potential loss in pre-tax earnings that was estimated to be ¥51.9 billion as of March 31, 2006 and ¥33.1 billion as of March 31, 2007. Based on Toyota’s overall currency exposure (including derivative positions), the risk during the year ended March 31, 2007 to pre-tax cash flow from currency movements was on average ¥30.9 billion, with a high of ¥33.1 billion and a low of ¥27.6 billion.

The VAR was estimated by using a Monte Carlo Simulation method and assumed 95% confidence level on the realization date and a 10-day holding period.

Interest Rate Risk

Toyota is subject to market risk from exposures to changes in interest rates based on its financing, investing and cash management activities. Toyota enters into various financial instrument transactions to maintain the desired level of exposure to the risk of interest rate fluctuations and to minimize interest expense. The potential decrease in fair value resulting from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift in interest rates would be approximately ¥75.6 billion as of March 31, 2006 and ¥99.5 billion as of March 31, 2007.

There are certain shortcomings inherent to the sensitivity analyses presented. The model assumes interest rate changes are instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve. However, in reality, changes are rarely instantaneous. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they may not react correspondingly to changes in market interest rates. Also, the interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate with changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets may lag behind changes in market rates. Finance receivables are less susceptible to prepayments when interest rates change and, as a result, Toyota’s model does not address prepayment risk for automotive related finance receivables. However, in the event of a change in interest rates, actual loan prepayments may deviate significantly from the assumptions used in the model.

Commodity Price Risk

Commodity price risk is the possibility of higher or lower costs due to changes in the prices of commodities, such as non-ferrous alloys (e.g., aluminum), precious metals (e.g., palladium, platinum and rhodium) and ferrous alloys, which Toyota uses in the production of motor vehicles. Toyota does not use derivative instruments to hedge the price risk associated with the purchase of those commodities and controls its commodity price risk by holding minimum stock levels.

Equity Price Risk

Toyota holds investments in various available-for-sale equity securities that are subject to price risk. The fair value of available-for-sale equity securities was ¥1,469.1 billion as of March 31, 2006 and ¥1,679.8 billion as of March 31, 2007. The potential change in the fair value of these investments, assuming a 10% change in prices, would be approximately ¥146.9 billion as of March 31, 2006 and ¥168.0 billion as of March 31, 2007.

This excerpt taken from the TM 20-F filed Jun 26, 2006.

ITEM 11. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Toyota is exposed to market risk from changes in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and certain commodity and equity security prices. In order to manage the risk arising from changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, Toyota enters into a variety of derivative financial instruments.

A description of Toyota’s accounting policies for derivative instruments is included in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements and further disclosure is provided in notes 20 and 21 to the consolidated financial statements.

Toyota monitors and manages these financial exposures as an integral part of its overall risk management program, which recognizes the unpredictability of financial markets and seeks to reduce the potentially adverse effects on Toyota’s operating results.

The financial instruments included in the market risk analysis consist of all of Toyota’s cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, finance receivables, securities investments, long-term and short-term debt and all derivative financial instruments. Toyota’s portfolio of derivative financial instruments consists of forward foreign currency exchange contracts, foreign currency options, interest rate swaps, interest rate currency swap agreements and interest rate options. Anticipated transactions denominated in foreign currencies that are covered by Toyota’s derivative hedging are not included in the market risk analysis. Although operating leases are not required to be included, Toyota has included these instruments in determining interest rate risk.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

Toyota has foreign currency exposures related to buying, selling and financing in currencies other than the local currencies in which it operates. Toyota is exposed to foreign currency risk related to future earnings or assets and liabilities that are exposed due to operating cash flows and various financial instruments that are denominated in foreign currencies. Toyota’s most significant foreign currency exposures relate to the U.S. dollar and the euro.

Toyota uses a value-at-risk analysis (“VAR”) to evaluate its exposure to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. The value-at-risk of the combined foreign exchange position represents a potential loss in pre-tax earnings that was estimated to be ¥57.1 billion as of March 31, 2005 and ¥51.9 billion as of March 31, 2006. Based on Toyota’s overall currency exposure (including derivative positions), the risk during the year ended March 31, 2006 to pre-tax cash flow from currency movements was on average ¥46.6 billion, with a high of ¥51.9 billion and a low of ¥44.1 billion.

The VAR was estimated by using a Monte Carlo Simulation method and assumed 95% confidence level on the realization date and a 10-day holding period.

Interest Rate Risk

Toyota is subject to market risk from exposures to changes in interest rates based on its financing, investing and cash management activities. Toyota enters into various financial instrument transactions to maintain the desired level of exposure to the risk of interest rate fluctuations and to minimize interest expense. Certain exchange traded future and option contracts, interest rate caps and floors, along with various investments, have been entered into to reduce the interest rate risk related to these activities. The potential decrease in fair value resulting from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift in interest rates would be approximately ¥56.3 billion as of March 31, 2005 and ¥75.6 billion as of March 31, 2006.

There are certain shortcomings inherent to the sensitivity analyses presented. The model assumes interest rate changes are instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve; however, in reality, changes are rarely instantaneous. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they

 

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may not react correspondingly to changes in market interest rates. Also, the interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate with changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets may lag behind changes in market rates. Finance receivables are less susceptible to prepayments when interest rates change and, as a result, Toyota’s model does not address prepayment risk for automotive related finance receivables. However, in the event of a change in interest rates, actual loan prepayments may deviate significantly from the assumptions used in the model.

Commodity Price Risk

Commodity price risk is the possibility of higher or lower costs due to changes in the prices of commodities, such as non-ferrous alloys (e.g., aluminum), precious metals (e.g., palladium, platinum and rhodium) and ferrous alloys, which Toyota uses in the production of motor vehicles. Toyota does not use derivative instruments to hedge the price risk associated with the purchase of those commodities and controls its commodity price risk by holding minimum stock levels.

Equity Price Risk

Toyota holds investments in various available-for-sale equity securities that are subject to price risk. The fair value of available-for-sale equity securities was ¥904.8 billion as of March 31, 2005 and ¥1,469.1 billion as of March 31, 2006. The potential change in the fair value of these investments, assuming a 10% change in prices, would be approximately ¥90.4 billion as of March 31, 2005 and ¥146.9 billion as of March 31, 2006.

This excerpt taken from the TM 20-F filed Jun 24, 2005.

ITEM 11. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

 

Toyota is exposed to market risk from changes in foreign currency exchange rates, interest rates and certain commodity and equity security prices. In order to manage the risk arising from changes in foreign currency exchange rates and interest rates, Toyota enters into a variety of derivative financial instruments.

 

A description of Toyota’s accounting policies for derivative instruments is included in note 2 to the consolidated financial statements and further disclosure is provided in notes 20 and 21 to the consolidated financial statements.

 

Toyota monitors and manages these financial exposures as an integral part of its overall risk management program, which recognizes the unpredictability of financial markets and seeks to reduce the potentially adverse effects on Toyota’s operating results.

 

The financial instruments included in the market risk analysis consist of all of Toyota’s cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, finance receivables, securities investments, long-term and short-term debt and all derivative financial instruments. Toyota’s portfolio of derivative financial instruments consists of forward foreign currency exchange contracts, foreign currency options, interest rate swaps, interest rate currency swap agreements and interest rate options. Anticipated transactions denominated in foreign currencies that are covered by Toyota’s derivative hedging are not included in the market risk analysis. Although operating leases are not required to be included, Toyota has included these instruments in determining interest rate risk.

 

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

 

Toyota has foreign currency exposures related to buying, selling and financing in currencies other than the local currencies in which it operates. Toyota is exposed to foreign currency risk related to future earnings or assets and liabilities that are exposed due to operating cash flows and various financial instruments that are denominated in foreign currencies. Toyota’s most significant foreign currency exposures relate to the United States and Western European countries.

 

Toyota uses a value-at-risk analysis (“VAR”) to evaluate its exposure to changes in foreign currency exchange rates. The value-at-risk of the combined foreign exchange position represents a potential loss in pre-tax earnings that are estimated to be ¥37.8 billion as of March 31, 2004 and ¥57.1 billion as of March 31, 2005. Based on Toyota’s overall currency exposure (including derivative positions), the risk during the year ended March 31, 2005 to pre-tax cash flow from currency movements was on average ¥50.6 billion, with a high of ¥57.1 billion and a low of ¥46.6 billion.

 

The VAR was estimated by using a Monte Carlo Simulation method and assumed 95% confidence level on the realization date and a 10-day holding period.

 

Interest Rate Risk

 

Toyota is subject to market risk from exposures to changes in interest rates based on its financing, investing and cash management activities. Toyota enters into various financial instrument transactions to maintain the desired level of exposure to the risk of interest rate fluctuations and to minimize interest expense. Certain exchange traded future and option contracts, interest rate caps and floors, along with various investments, have been entered into to reduce the interest rate risk related to these activities. The potential decrease in fair value resulting from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift in interest rates would be approximately ¥29.6 billion as of March 31, 2004 and ¥56.3 billion as of March 31, 2005.

 

There are certain shortcomings inherent to the sensitivity analyses presented. The model assumes interest rate changes are instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve; however, in reality, changes are rarely instantaneous. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they

 

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may not react correspondingly to changes in market interest rates. Also, the interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate with changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets may lag behind changes in market rates. Finance receivables are less susceptible to prepayments when interest rates change and, as a result, Toyota’s model does not address prepayment risk for automotive related finance receivables. However, in the event of a change in interest rates, actual loan prepayments may deviate significantly from the assumptions used in the model.

 

Commodity Price Risk

 

Commodity price risk is the possibility of higher or lower costs due to changes in the prices of commodities, such as non-ferrous (e.g., aluminum), precious metals (e.g., palladium, platinum and rhodium) and ferrous alloys (e.g., steel), which Toyota uses in the production of motor vehicles. Toyota does not use derivative instruments to hedge the price risk associated with the purchase of those commodities and controls its commodity price risk by holding minimum stock levels.

 

Equity Price Risk

 

Toyota holds investments in various available-for-sale equity securities which are subject to price risk. The fair value of available-for-sale equity securities was ¥952.5 billion as of March 31, 2004 and ¥904.8 billion as of March 31, 2005. The potential change in the fair value of these investments, assuming a 10% change in prices, would be approximately ¥95.2 billion as of March 31, 2004 and ¥90.4 billion as of March 31, 2005.

 

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