Like the rest of the financial sector, and especially regional banks, the stock has taken a hard hit. The stock is now down over 28% from when we added it to our watchlist on February 1st at a price of $17, and down more than 50% from its 52 week high of $24.80. The weakness in the housing sector is far from over and we may be at the brink of a bear market, but things appear to be stabilizing at Umpqua.
Most of its lending has been to businesses, rather than to individual homeowners. Its also recently shown a 5% organic growth in the number of checking accounts it signed up in the second quarter. So, Umpqua's soft earnings are balanced by the fact that its business is primarily in sectors that haven't been hit as hard by the subprime crisis.
In an encouraging sign, Umpqua saw a decrease in both non-performing loans and non-performing assets last quarter. The company got a boost last quarter from the $12.6 million sale of Visa (V) stock and the reversal of a $5.2 million litigation reserve the company had set up in the fourth quarter related to Visa's settlement with American Express (AXP). With such one-time gains unlikely when the company reports second quarter results, year-over-year comparison with second quarter 2007 earnings of $19.91 million is going to be tough.
However, comparisons will start getting better in the second half of this year, and since investors are "forward looking", it may be a good idea to initiate a starter position in Umpqua at this point and pick up more after second quarter results are announced later this month.
Umpqua's dividend yield of over 6% is also attractive and the CEO has reiterated over the last two quarters that he does not see a need to cut the dividend.