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Michael Francis

Kryssia Uraguchi

UDR AT A GLANCE

P/E ► -28.0   EV/EBITDA ► 78.3 HIGH ROA ► 1.5% AVG ROE ► -5.9% AVG Debt to Equity ► 2.42 AVG Interest Coverage Ratio ► 2.43 AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

United Dominion Realty Trust owns and rents multi-family residential apartment communities. UDR operates over 44,000 apartment units in 162 communities across four regions- Western, Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern, and Southwestern.^[1] The company's properties generally target the middle-market of apartment lessees, with an average monthly rent payment around $1,176 per unit^[2] compared to a median of $675 in the U.S overall.^[3]

UDR is intricately tied to interest rate tides, which have several important effects:

• While the company competes for tenants with other apartment operators, it also competes on the relative attractiveness of owning a home versus renting an apartment. When home prices are high, renting becomes more attractive (and vice versa). Interest rates determine the attractiveness of mortgage financing. When interest rates are high, renting becomes more appealing as financing a mortgage becomes more expensive.
• It is also important to note that UDR operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT). As such, the company must distribute at least 90% of its cash flow to shareholders every year in the form of a dividend. When interest rates rise, so do demands for investment yields on dividends, which can depress a REIT's stock price.

Financial and Operating Metrics

Below are several metrics of operating performance for the company. The company has been able to steadily increase its rental revenue per apartment unit over time, fighting inflation and driving organic growth. It has lowered its total apartment base over the previous three years, selling off more properties (at a gain) than it has redeployed into purchasing new units. This "recycling" of capital is a standard opportunistic practice of REITs, which most believe allow them to take advantage and mitigate the risks of the real estate cycle. It also leads to somewhat large income line items from "discontinued operations."

Trends and Forces

Focus on fewer, more concentrated markets

UDR has not acquired new property as of August 2009, due in part to the current economic conditions, but also because it wants to focus on the markets it currently operates in. Specifically, UDR wants to concentrate on Southern and Northern California (26%), Florida (11.8%), Washington DC (10.9%), and Washington (2.5%) state for its long-term strategy.^[1] UDR believes that these areas will be the most profitable because it has already established itself in those areas and have formed high and unfavorable barriers to entry for its competitors.^[1] In addition, these metropolitan areas have favorable job opportunities for its residents, as well as already affordable single-family units.

Concentration in these five areas allows them to leverage scale in these regions, but also exposes them to more geographic, local risk for these properties. More than half of its apartments are within these five areas and the local economies and real estate markets are important drivers for the companies ability to attract and retain tenants while being able to increase rents over time. As of June 30, UDR has been able to maintain a 95.7% occupancy rate, which is above the 7.5% national vacancy rate.^[1][4]

2006 - 2008 Revenue and Net Income, in millions USD^[5]

National and Local Employment

The strength of the labor market has important implications for the company.^[6] Jobs fuel demand for all types of housing, including multi-family/apartment dwellings. Strong job growth can drive higher occupancy rates and lead to increased unit rental revenue. High unemployment and slow job growth, on the other hand, can hamper the apartment rental market and, when job growth is negative, the company can experience falling occupancy rates and lower revenue per unit, which leads to less efficient apartment buildings as the utilization of the complex falls. The rate of population growth in the company's operating regions is another key determinant of the company's success. In towns whose populations are rapidly increasing, limited housing supply and/or the lag time in building houses leads to greater demand for the company's apartment units. The growth in local population is also closely correlated to the rate of job growth.

The Housing Market and New Home Construction

Factors driving the non-apartment, alternative housing market can have a substantial impact on the company. Throughout 2007, falling housing prices in the company’s key markets, coupled with decreasing new home construction and the rising cost of financing mortgages increased demand for apartments relative to houses and other living alternatives. However, if housing prices continue to fall, houses can become more attractive to purchasers, and they may substitute away from apartments and opt for single-family housing instead.

Interest Rates

Rising interest rates have several effects on this company and other apartment REITs:

1. Other investments become more attractive, thereby hampering demand for apartment investors. This, in turn, decreases the market prices of the company’s properties.
2. Available and existing financing becomes less attractive. Getting favorable terms on any new debt to finance building purchases becomes more difficult. The company’s interest expense on its floating rate debt increases, pressuring margins and increasing financial risk.
3. The stock price can fall as investor’s demand a greater dividend yield. As a REIT, the company must, by law, distribute at least 90% of its cash flow to shareholders in the form of a regular dividend. When interest rates rise, investors demand higher dividend yields on REITs, thereby driving down their stock prices.

2006 - 2008 Number of Units and Revenue per Unit, in thousands USD^[5]

Mortgage Rates

The attractiveness of mortgage financing for home purchasers has important ramifications for the apartment REITs. If mortgage rates fall and credit is plentiful, buying a home becomes more attractive than renting an apartment, thus stifling demand for the company’s rental units. On the other hand, if the availability and attractiveness of mortgages declines, as did during the fallout from the subprime lending crisis, renting an apartment becomes more appealing, so occupancy rates and rental revenue per apartment increase.

Competition

The National Multi Housing Council estimates that approximately 33% of Americans rent their housing, and 14% live in rented apartments.^[7] UDR competes against a wide array of other apartment rental owners and operators. In terms of market cap, UDR most closely competes with REITs like Essex Property Trust (ESS) and Camden Property Trust (CPT).

The market for multi-family housing is highly fragmented geographically within any given region. In terms of region concentration, it competes with BRE Properties (BRE) in the Western regions and Home Properties (HME) in the Mid-Atlantic and South Eastern regions. The company’s real estate portfolio is spread across four geographic regions in 10 states. It has changed its long-term plan from highly diversifying itself across many states (2007) to focusing its investments within 5 major metropolitan regions (2009) evidenced by the fact that it sold more than 25,000 units in March 2008^[5].

Footnotes

1. ↑ ^{1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3} UDR 2Q2009 10-Q, 06/30/2009
2. ↑ UDR 2008 Annual Report, pg 6
3. ↑ National Multi Housing Council- Quick Facts: Apartment Rents, 2007
4. ↑ Real Estate Bloggers, "Apartment Vacancy at 7.5% Across United States," 07/09/2009
5. ↑ ^{5.0 5.1 5.2} Google Finance: UDR
6. ↑ UDR 2008 10-K, "Risk Factors," pg 12
7. ↑ Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions, July 2009