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WIKI ANALYSIS
Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) As the largest U.S. refiner in terms of throughput capacity, Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates 15 refineries located in the United States, Canada and Aruba that produce conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants and other refined products. In 2007, 97% of the $4.3 billion dollars Valero earned in operating income came from the sales of its refined products.[1]
From 2002 to 2007, Valero’s revenue increased 253%, reaching $95 billion.[2] Like many U.S. refiners, Valero’s profits are determined by the refining margin, which is the price difference between purchased crude oil and refined products. As a result, Valero’s revenue and profitability are susceptible to changes in crude prices, refined prices, and consumer demand for refined products. In 2008, changing crude prices and the declining consumption of conventional gasoline led to refining margins in the first nine months of 2008 that were $2.59, or 20%, lower than for the first nine months of 2007.[3]
Unlike many of its competitors, Valero’s technologically advanced refineries give the company an advantage against volatile crude oil prices and weakening demand for gasoline in 2008. Of its 3.0 billion barrels of daily throughput capacity, 2 billion barrels of Valero’s refined products use cheaper sour crude as an alternative feedstock to more expensive forms of oil like light sweet crude.[4] Because 65% of Valero's output uses cheaper forms of crude oil, Valero’s 2008 profits were not as affected by oil price volatility and lower gasoline consumption as were the profits of its competitors like Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) and Sunoco (SUN) .[5] Additionally, the company began producing more distillate fuel in 2008 in response to the 6% drop in gasoline consumption and the 30% increase in distillate margins. For the first nine months of 2008, 46% of Valero’s refined products were gasoline and similar blends of fuel.[6] Beginning in the third quarter of 2008, Valero began producing more profitable diesel fuels and distillates as alternatives to gasoline-based fuels.[7]
Although the company cut its 2009 capital expenditures budget by $700 million, Valero plans to spend approximately $2.7 billion in equipment upgrades partly in anticipation of the continued profitability of distillate fuel.[8] Additionally, due to stabilizing gasoline prices and a greater incorporation of biofuels-gasoline fuel blends, Valero has made a bid for three ethanol plants. If the bid is successful, Valero will be one of two U.S. refiners that can produce both gasoline and ethanol fuels.[9]
Company OverviewFor 2009, Valero announced a loss of $1.41 billion compared to a prior-year loss of $3.28 billion.[10] Rising oil prices and high inventory levels in 2009 contributed to the loss and the 58% decline in refining margins.[11] Rising crude prices have also reduced the company's cash reserves, which fell by approximately $775 million during the fourth quarter of 2009.[12] For 2009, the company focused on reducing costs and managing its cash flow. To reduce costs, Valero reduce throughput at several of its refineries and temporarily closed its Aruba plant in July 2009 and its Delaware City plant in December 2009.[13]
In 2009, Valero entered the ethanol production business through its acquisition of seven ethanol plants located in the United States. With a yearly production capacity of 1.1 billion gallons, Valero has the potential of benefiting substantially from the increased incorporation of biofuels in gasoline and other fuels. Through acquisitions, Valero is rapidly expanding its ethanol production capacity. In December 2009 and January 2010, Valero acquired five plants from various companies. For the fourth quarter of 2009, operating income from biofuel increased 91% to $94 million due to high ethanol margins.[14]
While Valero's 2009 annual earnings exemplified the difficulties US refiners faced in 2009, its fourth quarter earnings have the potential of being a good indicator of the refining market in 2010. For the final quarter of 2009, Valero experienced an operating loss, excluding special items, of $179 million.[15] This is a substantial decline from the same quarter in 2008, in which operating income was $1.3 billion.[16] The decline in discounts on sour crude oil in addition to lower margins on diesel and jet fuel contributed to the fourth quarter loss in 2009. Throughput margin per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $4.63, a 5% decline from the previous quarter and a 140% drop from the same quarter in 2008.[17] In the fourth quarter conference call, Valero's Chief Executive Officer, Bill Klesse, said that margins are not likely to rebound quickly in 2010 due to high inventory levels and low refining capacity. As a result, Valero has the potential of continuing its focus on trimming its costs and preserving its cash on hand. Valero ended the fourth quarter with $825 in cash and temporary cash investments.[18] Its main cost cutting techniques have been to temporarily stall unprofitable refineries and, in the fourth quarter, Valero announced the reduction of its dividend by 75%.[19]
| 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales( $ Million) | 27,945.00 | 36,640.00 | 35,960.00 | 18,569 |
| "% change from last year" | 49 | 51.4 | 51.7 | (35.23) |
| Operating Income( $ Million) | 472 | 1,158 | 1,840 | 1,200 |
| "% change from last year" | (71.7) | (63.7) | 57.5 | 35.7 |
| Refining Throughput Margin/barrel Average( $ ) | 8.48 | 10.82 | 13.11 | N/A |
| "% change from last year" | (30.2) | (40.3) | 31.89 | N/A |
Source: VLO 2008 First, Second, and Third Quarter Report [20]
Business SegmentsRefining Segment (97% of 2008 Operating Income): Valero’s refining segment sells petroleum products that have been processed and extracted from crude oil and other feedstock.[21] The company purchases crude oil, either through long term contracts or in the spot market, processes it, and sells its refined products to third parties or consumers at its retail stations. While its 15 refineries are located in the United States, Canada, and Aruba, over half of its refineries are located in the Gulf region.[22]
In January 2008, Valero produced nearly 3.1 million barrels of refined petro-products per day when operating at full capacity. A year later, Valero had reduced its refining production to 70-75% of its January 2008 levels amid weaker demand for gasoline and lower prices of refined products.[23] In an effort to cut production and raise money from sources other than refining, Valero sold two refineries, temporarily shut down two Texas refineries, and reduced gasoline production at its other refineries.[24]
In addition to being the U.S.’s largest refiner in terms of throughput capacity, Valero also has the greatest number of refineries that can process crude oil with high sulfur content, known as "sour" crude oil.[25] Because 65% of Valero’s production can use cheaper, lower quality forms of crude oil to produce high quality “light” petroleum products, its profits benefit from the price differences between sweet, light crude and heavy sour crude.[26] As a result, the “sour crude oil differential” is significant to Valero’s profits because the company purchases sour crude at prices lower than sweet light crude, processes the cheaper crude into light refined products, and sells its products at the same prices as refiners that refine light crude.[27] The price disparity between refined products and crude oil, known as the “refining margin,” is the primary determinant of U.S. refiner’s profitability. Because 65% of Valero’s refineries use sour crude as an alternative to light sweet crude, Valero can significantly lower its feedstock costs and increase its refining margin during times when the sour crude differential is large.
In May 2009, Valero agreed to buy ([[Dow]) Chemical Company's stake in a Netherlands-based refinery for $725 million plus working capital and inventories.[28] Operated by Total Raffinaderij Nederland N.V (TRN), the refinery has a total throughput capacity of 190,000 barrels per day.[29] Although of the acquisition has not been finalized, purchasing Dow's 45% stake in the refinery is capable of being Valero's entry into the European refining market.[30] The purchase has the potential to close as early as the third quarter of 2009.[31]
Retail Segment( 3% of 2008 Operating Income): Although Valero’s retail stations sell goods other than gasoline and diesel, their operating income and profitability are significantly determined by the price of the conventional fuels they sell to consumers. For the first nine months of 2008, retail operating income increased 13% to $206 million due to gasoline prices that were on average $0.04 higher than during the first nine months of 2007.[32]
Trends and Forces
U.S. Independent Refiners Faced Stronger Competition and Lower Profit Margins in 2009For 2009, rising crude prices, high inventory levels, and relatively weak demand for fuel have reduce the refining margins experienced by many U.S. refiners. As a result, reducing costs through scaling back on processing rates became the focal point for many refiners in 2009, including Valero. For 2009, Valero reported a loss of $1.41 billion compared with a 2008 loss of $3.28 billion.[33]The company reduced its loss without the addition of $4.1 billion in company write-downs during the fourth quarter. While annual revenue rose 5.8%, refining output and margin per barrel both fell relative to 2008 by 15% and 58%, respectively.[34]
Like many refiners, Valero scaled back its operations in order to reduce operating costs and its supply gluts. Of the U.S. refiners, scaling back operations may have had the most significant impact on Valero's revenue and profitability because of the upgrades it made to its facilities in the 2000s. From those upgrades, Valero's refineries processed heavy sour crude, which is usually sold at a sizable discount compared to the light sweet crude used by most refiners.[35] However, the discounts on heavy sour crude narrowed substantially in 2008, which contributed to the reduction in Valero's profits. Many of Valero's plants are not running either: Valero shutdown its Aruba plant in July 2009 and its Delware City facility in December..[36] Valero plans on selling plants in Aruba, Delware City, and Pausboro, NJ in 2010, which has the potential of reducing its overall refining capacity.[37]
Managing its cash flow was also another problem for Valero in 2009. The company finished 2009 with $825 million in cash compared to $1.6 billion it had at the end of September.[38] Anaylsts at the Wall Street Journal are predicting that the drop in cash was a result of the rise in oil prices during the fourth quarter.[39]
While its refining business struggles, its operating income from its Ethanol operations increased 91% from the third quarter of 2009. Due to high ethanol margins, its ethanol plants have been a good source of cash for Valero.[40]
When profits margins are low for U.S. refiners, Valero’s advanced refineries give it a production and price advantageValero’s ability to refine large quantities of heavy sour crude has the potential to increase refining margins and profits, especially when the price of light crude, like West Texas Intermediate sweet crude, rises.[41] When the price of light crude began to rise to $140 per barrel in July 2008, the prices of refined products, such as gasoline, were not able to increase as quickly. For many independent refiners, the rapid increase in crude prices initially cut refining margins and reduced quarterly profits substantially; Sunoco (SUN) and Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) reported that profits fell by more than 80% and 90% during this period.[42] While Valero’s net refining margin fell by 36% during the same period, the decrease in earnings was not as drastic as it was with many other competitors.[43] The rise in crude prices effected Valero’s profits less than its competitors during 2007 and 2008 because 65% of Valero’s refining capacity uses crude that was $6/barrel to $16/barrel cheaper on average than light sweet crude.[44] As a result, volatile changes in the prices of light sweet crude oils did not affect Valero's refining margins as much it did the Valero's competitors.[45]
However, falling crude prices have reduced the low-production-cost advantages of Valero's refineries.[46] Industry-wide cuts in crude supplies have reduced the price difference between the sour Maya crude oil and the sweet West Texas Intermediate in March 2009 to $4 from $14 in the fourth quarter of 2008.[47] Declining consumption of refined products, which fell 6%in 2008, has not only reduced Valero's profits, but also reduced the production advantages Valero has over other U.S. refiners like Sunoco (SUN).[48] Despite declining refining prices, Soleil Securities energy analyst Jacques Rousseau maintains that the price difference between sour and sweet crude has the potential to widen when the U.S. economy begins to recover and oil prices rise.[49]
Valero’s advanced refineries can switch from producing conventional gasoline to refining and selling petroleum products that are in higher demand or have higher refining marginsThrough its investments in equipment upgrades and acquisitions, Valero has 15 refineries that are worth over $25 billion at the end of 2008.[50]The high value of Valero's refineries indicate that the company has made substantial investments in new refining equipment and equipment upgrades. For example, in 2007, Valero sold a refinery with throughput capacity of 165,000 bpd for $1.9 billion. By contrast, Sunoco (SUN) plans to sell a refinery with throughput capacity of 100,000 bpd for $1 billion.[51]
Due to its equipment investments, not only can Valero produce gasoline and distillate fuels with lower production costs than its competitors, but the company is not as susceptible to the low demand for gasoline beginning in 2008.[52] Beginning in 2008, Valero reduced its production of gasoline blends, which accounted for almost 46% of its 2007 annual production, in order to produce products that carried better profit margins and had higher demand.[53] In 2008, Valero produced and exported more diesel fuel as those profit margins increased 30%. Diesel demand has skyrocketed internationally, especially in Europe, thanks to the fuel's higher better efficiency; globally, diesel prices have risen 56% in the last year[54] Overall, U.S. refiners exported 160% more diesel in 2008 in order to meet rising worldwide demand for energy while overall domestic consumption of gasoline fell by 6%.[55]
Declining Sour Crude Discounts have hurt Valero's profitability in 2009Although Valero's ability to process sour crude oil gave the refiner an advantage in 2008, lower supplies of sour crude have increased its price and contributed to Valero's net loss in the second quarter of 2009.[56] For the second quarter 2009, Valero reported revenue that was 51% lower year-over-year and a net loss of $254 million.[57] Valero's quarterly loss resulted from the company's failed strategy to process heavier grades of crude oil as well as falling sales volume and prices.[58] In 2007 and 2008, Valero invested in expensive equipment that could handle lower quality crude oil in order to increase its refining margins. But, lower supplies of lower-quality crude has led to a price convergence between sweet and sour crude. The result has been lower margins for Valero. According to Valero's management, sour crude prices have the potential of remaining close to sweet crude prices for the rest of 2009.[59]
As a result of declining crude discounts, Valero has taken action to improve profitability by closing underperforming operations.[60] The Premcor Refining Group Inc, a subsidiary of Valero, plans to shut down both its coker and gasifier operations.[61] In addition, Valero has extended shut downs at its Aruba refinery and Corpus Christi refinery.[62] These three refineries have remained unprofitable in 2009 due to the economic recession, declining demand for refined products, and poor coking margins due to a decreased price differential between heavy sour and light sweet crude oils.[63] In particular, the narrow price differential between heavy sour crude and light sweet crude has led to heavy losses at the Aruba refinery. Overall, cutting unprofitable operations as a means of boosting profitability has the potential of remaining an important part of Valero's 2009.[64]
The costs of shutting down unprofitable refineries contributed to Valero's net loss of $489 million in the third quarter of 2009.[65] Although gasoline prices have improved since hitting their 2008 lows, the large supply of gasoline available on the U.S. market has prevented gas prices from rising.[66] As a result, Valero's refinery margins shrunk in the third quarter 2009 as crude prices rose and gasoline prices remain relatively stagnant. During the third quarter of 2009, profit margins on every barrel of crude it ran through its Gulf Coast refineries fell to $4.66 from $13.21 in 2008.[67] In addition to declining profit margins from the sale of gasoline, Valero is also facing more competition overseas refineries. With more foreign refining companies installing equipment to refine sour crude, the sour crude discount has declined as well. To combat narrow margins, Valero has increased production from its non-refining fuels like ethanol.[68] In the third quarter of 2009, Valero's operating income from its ethanol operations doubled from the previous quarter, earning $49 million of operating income.[69] While Valero's has the potential of shutting down several of its oil refineries, the Company has increased production at seven of its ethanol plants.[70]
Amid economic downturn, Valero plans for a Biofuels FutureRefining margins were smaller as crude oil prices increased in partly due to higher concentrations of biofuels mixed with retail gasoline. Beginning in July 2008, the price corn and ethanol dropped, as ethanol producers could not cut costs in step with falling fuel prices. In particular, ethanol maker Verasun Energy (VSE) filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in February 2009 after losing a significant amount of money on hedges to protect the company against rising corn prices corn.[71] Verasun Energy (VSE) has accepted Valero's bid for seven of its ethanol plants to Valero for $477 million.[72]
In December 2009, Valero purchased three more ethanol plants for $272 million.[73] U.S. ethanol producers were hit hardly by the economic downturn in 2008 that forced many producers into bankruptcy. However, Valero has been able to purchase seven plants in 2009 at depressed prices. The December-purchase adds a combined capacity of 330 million gallons per year, bringing the refiner's total capacity to 1.1 billion gallons per year. [74] During the first month of 2010, Valero acquired two ethanol plants for $200 million from ASA Ethanol Holdings.[75] The two plants, located in Indiana and Ohio, add an annual production capacity of 110 million gallons to Valero's growing ethanol business.[76]
Valero’s bid for these biofuel plants suggests that the company believes ethanol will once again be a profitable fuel when energy prices rise and that consumers will demand more environmentally friendly forms of energy in the future.[77] As a producer of ethanol as well as a petroleum refiner, Valero will be able to profit from higher concentrations of ethanol in gasoline.[78] Valero and Marathon Oil are the only two U.S. refiners that will not have to purchase ethanol from third parties in order to make gasoline.[79]
In 2010, the federal government is capable of increasing the ethanol content of commercially sold gasoline. While Valero is one the U.S's largest producers of ethanol in terms of ethanol, its primary business, producing petroleum-derived fuels, is likely to be impacted significantly by regulation of this type.[80]
Approximately half of Valero's Refining Capacity is located in the Gulf Region and is vulnerable to seasonal stormsWith refineries located in Texas and Louisiana, about half of Valero's refining capacity is exposed to hurricanes and tropical storms occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. In the fall of 2008, BP (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS'A), and Transocean (RIG) had to such down refineries, oil rigs, and other operations on the Gulf coast in order to protect their workers and equipment from Hurricane Gustav.[81] While Valero did not have to close any of its Gulf refineries during the storm, half of Valero's production capacity remains open to destruction from future hurricanes and other Gulf storms.
Competitive LandscapeOil Majors( Chevron Corporation (CVX) , Exxon Mobil (XOM), CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP), BP (BP)): The oil & gas majors are vertically integrated oil and gas companies that have exploration, production, refining, and marketing operations. In the refining segment, many of the oil & gas majors operate more cost-effectively than independent refiners like Valero because they do not have to purchase their crude oil supply from third parties. Not only do many of the majors have comparable refining capacity to Valero's, but many of them operate in the Texas and Lousiana, where Valero has more than half of its refineries.[82]
Holly Corp. (HOC): Holy Corp. is a United States-based petroleum refiner. The Company operates two oil refiners and distributes its refined products in the Southwest and West United States. Holly Corp. also owns 900 miles of crude oil pipelines located in Texas and New Mexico. the Company transports asphalt and liquid petroleum gas(LPG) to wholesalers and LPG retailers.[83]
Sunoco (SUN): Sunoco is U.S. petroleum company with refining, retail, chemical, coke, and logistics segments. As the second largest U.S. refiner in terms of capacity,the company has a refining capacity of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, with operations spread across the Northeast and Mid-West. Unlike Valero Energy (VLO), a majority of Sunoco's refining feedstock comes from sweet crude oil.[84]
Tesoro (TSO): Like Valero, Tesoro operates in two segments: refining and retail. As of December 31, 2008, Tesoro owns and operates 7 refineries with a total throughput capacity of 658,000 bpd. 93% of their operating income comes from their refining segment. In 2007, Tesoro made $21.9 billion in revenue from its refining and retail segments and $967 million in operating income.[85]
| CONOCOPHILLIPS | ROYAL DUTCH SHELL | EXXONMOBIL | CHEVRON | BP | LUKOIL(1) | Eni S.p.A(1) | Total S.A. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserves | ||||||||
| Oil and Gas Liquids (Millions of barrels) | 5,817[86][87] | 3775[88] | 7,576(2)[89] | 7,350[90] | 10,353[91] | 15,715[92] | 3,219[93] | 5,695[94] |
| Natural Gas (Billions of cubic feet) | 24,948[95] | 40,895[96] | 31,402(2)[89] | 23,075[90] | 45,208[91] | 27,921[97] | 18,090[93] | 26,218[94] |
| Production | ||||||||
| Oil and Gas Liquids (Thousand b/d) | 1,108[98] | 1,695[88] | 2,405[99] | 1,649[100] | 2,401[101] | 1,954[102] | 1,020[93] | 1,456[103] |
| Natural Gas (Million cf/d) | 4,970[98] | 8,595[96] | 9,095[99] | 5,125[100] | 8,334[101] | 1,586[104] | 4,114[93] | 4,837[103] |
(1) Latest data is for 2007 (2) Does not include reserves of equity affiliates
| SUNOCO | CHEVRON | VALERO | EXXON MOBIL | Royal Dutch Shell | SINOPEC | WESTERN REFINING | ConocoPhillips | BP | LUKOIL(1) | Eni S.p.A(1)[105] | Total S.A. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refinery Capacity (Million BPD) | 0.91[106] | 2.139[107] | 2.99[108] | 6.2[109] | 3.678[110] | 3.376[111] | 0.238[112] | 1.986[113] | 2.678[114] | 1.135[115][116] | 0.544 | 2.604[117] |
| Number of Refineries (including partial interests) | 5[118] | 18[107] | 16[119] | 37[109] | 40[120] | 17[121] | 4[122] | 12[113] | 17[114] | 9[123] | N/A | 25[117] |
| Number of Retail Gas Stations | 7,785[124] | 25,000[125][126] | 5,800[119] | 10,516[127] | 45,000[128] | 29,279[129] | 153[130] | 8,340[131] | 22,600[132] | 6,287[133] | 6,441 (in Europe) | 16,425[117] |
(1) Latest data is for 2007
Notes 


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