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VLO AT A GLANCE

P/E ► -7.93   EV/EBITDA ► 4.56 AVG ROA ► -1.7% AVG ROE ► -6.4% LOW Debt to Equity ► 1.26 AVG Current Ratio ► 1.68 AVG Interest Coverage Ratio ► 1.85 AVG

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue, Net Income, and Net MarginRevenue, Gross Profit, and Gross MarginOperating IncomeEbitIncome Before TaxesNet Income from Continuing OpsInterest vs Continuing IncomeInterest CoverageOperating ExpensesSG&AAmortization & Depreciation

Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) As the largest U.S. refiner in terms of throughput capacity, Valero Energy Corporation owns and operates 15 refineries located in the United States, Canada and Aruba that produce conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants and other refined products. In 2007, 97% of the $4.3 billion dollars Valero earned in operating income came from the sales of its refined products.^[1]

From 2002 to 2007, Valero’s revenue increased 253%, reaching $95 billion.^[2] Like many U.S. refiners, Valero’s profits are determined by the refining margin, which is the price difference between purchased crude oil and refined products. As a result, Valero’s revenue and profitability are susceptible to changes in crude prices, refined prices, and consumer demand for refined products. In 2008, changing crude prices and the declining consumption of conventional gasoline led to refining margins in the first nine months of 2008 that were $2.59, or 20%, lower than for the first nine months of 2007.^[3]

Unlike many of its competitors, Valero’s technologically advanced refineries give the company an advantage against volatile crude oil prices and weakening demand for gasoline in 2008. Of its 3.0 billion barrels of daily throughput capacity, 2 billion barrels of Valero’s refined products use cheaper sour crude as an alternative feedstock to more expensive forms of oil like light sweet crude.^[4] Because 65% of Valero's output uses cheaper forms of crude oil, Valero’s 2008 profits were not as affected by oil price volatility and lower gasoline consumption as were the profits of its competitors like Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) and Sunoco (SUN) .^[5] Additionally, the company began producing more distillate fuel in 2008 in response to the 6% drop in gasoline consumption and the 30% increase in distillate margins. For the first nine months of 2008, 46% of Valero’s refined products were gasoline and similar blends of fuel.^[6] Beginning in the third quarter of 2008, Valero began producing more profitable diesel fuels and distillates as alternatives to gasoline-based fuels.^[7]

Although the company cut its 2009 capital expenditures budget by $700 million, Valero plans to spend approximately $2.7 billion in equipment upgrades partly in anticipation of the continued profitability of distillate fuel.^[8] Additionally, due to stabilizing gasoline prices and a greater incorporation of biofuels-gasoline fuel blends, Valero has made a bid for three ethanol plants. If the bid is successful, Valero will be one of two U.S. refiners that can produce both gasoline and ethanol fuels.^[9]

[edit] Company Overview

In 2007, operating revenues increased by approximately 9% from 2006 due to rising prices of refined petroleum products.^[10] By the end of 2007, operating income was down 10.4% as a result of light crude prices that had risen over 60% from one year prior.^[11] U.S. refiners, which have to purchase their crude supply from the spot market or through long-term contracts, saw spot prices rise 51% in the first half of 2008. As crude oil prices rose in the first half of 2008, Valero’s costs rose 16% during this period and the company’s refining margin fell 36%.^[12]

Although Valero's 2008 quarterly revenue increased while gasoline prices were rising in the first half of 2008, consumers and companies purchased less gasoline beginning in the second quarter of 2008 in response to higher gas prices and the global recession beginning in 2007. While Valero’s revenue for the first nine months of 2008 increased 51% from the first nine months of 2007 as a result of higher refined prices, Valero’s operating income for the first nine months of 2008 was 42% lower and decreased by $2.7 billion in the refining segment.^[13] Over the first nine months of 2008 Valero cut daily production by an average of 5%, or 148,000 bpd, in reaction to lower consumption over that period and in anticipation that low consumption and refined prices will continue in 2009.^[14]

Source: VLO 2008 First, Second, and Third Quarter Report ^[15]

[edit] Business Segments

Refining Segment (97% of 2008 Operating Income): Valero’s refining segment sells petroleum products that have been processed and extracted from crude oil and other feedstock.^[16] The company purchases crude oil, either through long term contracts or in the spot market, processes it, and sells its refined products to third parties or consumers at its retail stations. While its 15 refineries are located in the United States, Canada, and Aruba, over half of its refineries are located in the Gulf region.^[17]

In January 2008, Valero produced nearly 3.1 million barrels of refined petro-products per day when operating at full capacity. A year later, Valero had reduced its refining production to 70-75% of its January 2008 levels amid weaker demand for gasoline and lower prices of refined products.^[18] In an effort to cut production and raise money from sources other than refining, Valero sold two refineries, temporarily shut down two Texas refineries, and reduced gasoline production at its other refineries.^[19]

In addition to being the U.S.’s largest refiner in terms of throughput capacity, Valero also has the greatest number of refineries that can process crude oil with high sulfur content, known as "sour" crude oil.^[20] Because 65% of Valero’s production can use cheaper, lower quality forms of crude oil to produce high quality “light” petroleum products, its profits benefit from the price differences between sweet, light crude and heavy sour crude.^[21] As a result, the “sour crude oil differential” is significant to Valero’s profits because the company purchases sour crude at prices lower than sweet light crude, processes the cheaper crude into light refined products, and sells its products at the same prices as refiners that refine light crude.^[22] The price disparity between refined products and crude oil, known as the “refining margin,” is the primary determinant of U.S. refiner’s profitability. Because 65% of Valero’s refineries use sour crude as an alternative to light sweet crude, Valero can significantly lower its feedstock costs and increase its refining margin during times when the sour crude differential is large.

In May 2009, Valero agreed to buy ([[Dow]) Chemical Company's stake in a Netherlands-based refinery for $725 million plus working capital and inventories.^[23] Operated by Total Raffinaderij Nederland N.V (TRN), the refinery has a total throughput capacity of 190,000 barrels per day.^[24] Although of the acquisition has not been finalized, purchasing Dow's 45% stake in the refinery is capable of being Valero's entry into the European refining market.^[25] The purchase has the potential to close as early as the third quarter of 2009.^[26]

Retail Segment( 3% of 2008 Operating Income): Although Valero’s retail stations sell goods other than gasoline and diesel, their operating income and profitability are significantly determined by the price of the conventional fuels they sell to consumers. For the first nine months of 2008, retail operating income increased 13% to $206 million due to gasoline prices that were on average $0.04 higher than during the first nine months of 2007.^[27]

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] Low Gasoline prices and Weak Energy Demand pose a problem for Valero's Profitability

In 2008, volatile crude prices produced an environment that has reduced the profitability of U.S. refiner’s operations and forced many refiners like Valero to find ways to lower production costs. When crude prices increased in the first six months of 2008, lagging gasoline prices reduced Valero’s refining costs; the difference between the cost of crude and the price of refined products was on average 36% lower during this period than it was in the previous year.^[28] While revenues continued to rise in the third quarter of 2008, Valero’s profit margin fluctuated as a result of the changing of both the price of crude oil and the consumption of refined products by end-users.^[29] Since July of 2008, crude oil prices have fallen from historical high prices close to $147/barrel to $40/barrel in February 2009.^[30]

While crude prices remained relatively stable in January and February 2009, the unpredictable rise of crude prices followed by a sudden drop in demand for refined products had a significant impact on Valero’s revenue, profit, and operating margins in 2008. In the first half of 2008, crude prices increased faster than refined prices could increase.^[31] Because it takes time to refine crude, distribute it nationwide, and sell it to consumers, prices of gasoline and other refined products do not change a quickly as crude prices and refined prices typically lag behind rising crude prices. Crude prices rose so quickly in the first six months of 2008 that refining prices could not keep up. Valero’s revenue in the first two quarters of 2008 increased 50% due to higher refined prices, but higher crude prices increased refining costs 17% and reduced refining margins 36%.^[32]

Valero’s refining margins did not improve significantly in the third or fourth quarter of 2008 despite falling crude prices. In comparison to the first nine months of 2008, refining margin was 19% lower for the first nine months of 2008.^[33] Lower crude prices generally increases refining margins, but lower refined prices coupled with the 6% overall decline in consumption of gasoline and higher levels of ethanol in the fuel raised the amount of refined products Valero kept in inventory by 20% by the end of 2008.^[34] In order to avoid paying more for storage of petroleum products amid weak energy demand, refiners cut prices 53% from July 2008 to February 2009 and reduced production.^[35] By the end of 2007 Valero was refining at full capacity in order to meet the rising need for energy. Twelve months later, the oil refiner was operating at 70-75% of its capacity.^[36]

Valero lost $3.28 billion in the fourth quarter due to lower demand for refining products as well as a one-time loss from a stock valuation. However, operating income increased to $1.2 billion from $884 million in the fourth quarter 2007.^[37] Operating income rose primarily from better margins for distallte fuels (jet fuel and diesel) and better retail margins.^[38] During the last quarter of 2008, Valero announced that it would cut its 2009 capital expenditure budget from $3.5 billion to $2.7 billion as the company anticipates a continued, low demand for refined products, like gasoline.^[39]

In the first quarter of 2009, net earnings increased 23% when compared to the same quarter in 2008.^[40] First quarter 2009 operating income was $507 million versus $472 million in the first quarter of 2008. Higher refining margins, especially for gasoline, and lower operating costs were the primary reasons that operating costs increased.^[41] Valero's $117 million decline in refining operating expenses was a result of to lower energy costs and the absence of operating expenses at Krotz Springs Refinery, which the company sold in July 2008. However, sour crude discounts and diesel margins were both lower in the first quarter of 2009 when compared to the same quarter of the previous year.^[42]

In June 2009, Valero began shutting down production at the company's Aruba refinery in response to declining profitability and rising costs at the plant during the first quarter of 2009.^[43] The refinery, which is up for sale, has the potential of remaining shut down from July 2009 through September 2009.^[44] The plant has a throughput capacity of 235,000, and is capable of refinery heavy sour crude.^[45] Declining crude prices beginning in the second half of 2008 have decreased the discount Valero receives on refining sour crude oil, which is more difficult to process.^[46] With smaller refining margins, Valero management decided to reduce overall production and shut down production at the Aruba refinery.^[47]

[edit] When profits margins are low for U.S. refiners, Valero’s advanced refineries give it a production and price advantage

Valero’s ability to refine large quantities of heavy sour crude has the potential to increase refining margins and profits, especially when the price of light crude, like West Texas Intermediate sweet crude, rises.^[48] When the price of light crude began to rise to $140 per barrel in July 2008, the prices of refined products, such as gasoline, were not able to increase as quickly. For many independent refiners, the rapid increase in crude prices initially cut refining margins and reduced quarterly profits substantially; Sunoco (SUN) and Tesoro Petroleum (TSO) reported that profits fell by more than 80% and 90% during this period.^[49] While Valero’s net refining margin fell by 36% during the same period, the decrease in earnings was not as drastic as it was with many other competitors.^[50] The rise in crude prices effected Valero’s profits less than its competitors during 2007 and 2008 because 65% of Valero’s refining capacity uses crude that was $6/barrel to $16/barrel cheaper on average than light sweet crude.^[51] As a result, volatile changes in the prices of light sweet crude oils did not affect Valero's refining margins as much it did the Valero's competitors.^[52]

However, falling crude prices have reduced the low-production-cost advantages of Valero's refineries.^[53] Industry-wide cuts in crude supplies have reduced the price difference between the sour Maya crude oil and the sweet West Texas Intermediate in March 2009 to $4 from $14 in the fourth quarter of 2008.^[54] Declining consumption of refined products, which fell 6%in 2008, has not only reduced Valero's profits, but also reduced the production advantages Valero has over other U.S. refiners like Sunoco (SUN).^[55] Despite declining refining prices, Soleil Securities energy analyst Jacques Rousseau maintains that the price difference between sour and sweet crude has the potential to widen when the U.S. economy begins to recover and oil prices rise.^[56]

[edit] Valero’s advanced refineries can switch from producing conventional gasoline to refining and selling petroleum products that are in higher demand or have higher refining margins

Through its investments in equipment upgrades and acquisitions, Valero has 15 refineries that are worth over $25 billion at the end of 2008.^[57]The high value of Valero's refineries indicate that the company has made substantial investments in new refining equipment and equipment upgrades. For example, in 2007, Valero sold a refinery with throughput capacity of 165,000 bpd for $1.9 billion. By contrast, Sunoco (SUN) plans to sell a refinery with throughput capacity of 100,000 bpd for $1 billion.^[58]

Due to its equipment investments, not only can Valero produce gasoline and distillate fuels with lower production costs than its competitors, but the company is not as susceptible to the low demand for gasoline beginning in 2008.^[59] Beginning in 2008, Valero reduced its production of gasoline blends, which accounted for almost 46% of its 2007 annual production, in order to produce products that carried better profit margins and had higher demand.^[60] In 2008, Valero produced and exported more diesel fuel as those profit margins increased 30%. Diesel demand has skyrocketed internationally, especially in Europe, thanks to the fuel's higher better efficiency; globally, diesel prices have risen 56% in the last year^[61] Overall, U.S. refiners exported 160% more diesel in 2008 in order to meet rising worldwide demand for energy while overall domestic consumption of gasoline fell by 6%.^[62]

[edit] Amid economic downturn, Valero plans for a Biofuels Future

Refining margins were smaller as crude oil prices increased in partly due to higher concentrations of biofuels mixed with retail gasoline. Beginning in July 2008, the price corn and ethanol dropped, as ethanol producers could not cut costs in step with falling fuel prices. In particular, ethanol maker Verasun Energy (VSE) filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy in February 2009 after losing a significant amount of money on hedges to protect the company against rising corn prices corn.^[63] Verasun Energy (VSE) has accepted Valero's bid for seven of its ethanol plants to Valero for $477 million.^[64] deal said good for refiner, ethanol sector, February 2009]</ref>

Valero’s bid for these biofuel plants suggests that the company believes ethanol will once again be a profitable fuel when energy prices rise and that consumers will demand more environmentally friendly forms of energy in the future.^[65] As a producer of ethanol as well as a petroleum refiner, Valero will be able to profit from higher concentrations of ethanol in gasoline.^[66] Valero and Marathon Oil are the only two U.S. refiners that will not have to purchase ethanol from third parties in order to make gasoline.^[67]

[edit] Approximately half of Valero's Refining Capacity is located in the Gulf Region and is vulnerable to seasonal storms

With refineries located in Texas and Louisiana, about half of Valero's refining capacity is exposed to hurricanes and tropical storms occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. In the fall of 2008, BP (BP), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS'A), and Transocean (RIG) had to such down refineries, oil rigs, and other operations on the Gulf coast in order to protect their workers and equipment from Hurricane Gustav.^[68] While Valero did not have to close any of its Gulf refineries during the storm, half of Valero's production capacity remains open to destruction from future hurricanes and other Gulf storms.

[edit] Competitive Landscape

Oil Majors( Chevron Corporation (CVX) , Exxon Mobil (XOM), CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP), BP (BP)): The oil & gas majors are vertically integrated oil and gas companies that have exploration, production, refining, and marketing operations. In the refining segment, many of the oil & gas majors operate more cost-effectively than independent refiners like Valero because they do not have to purchase their crude oil supply from third parties. Not only do many of the majors have comparable refining capacity to Valero's, but many of them operate in the Texas and Lousiana, where Valero has more than half of its refineries.^[69]

Holly Corp. (HOC): Holy Corp. is a United States-based petroleum refiner. The Company operates two oil refiners and distributes its refined products in the Southwest and West United States. Holly Corp. also owns 900 miles of crude oil pipelines located in Texas and New Mexico. the Company transports asphalt and liquid petroleum gas(LPG) to wholesalers and LPG retailers.^[70]

Sunoco (SUN): Sunoco is U.S. petroleum company with refining, retail, chemical, coke, and logistics segments. As the second largest U.S. refiner in terms of capacity,the company has a refining capacity of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, with operations spread across the Northeast and Mid-West. Unlike Valero Energy (VLO), a majority of Sunoco's refining feedstock comes from sweet crude oil.^[71]

Tesoro (TSO): Like Valero, Tesoro operates in two segments: refining and retail. As of December 31, 2008, Tesoro owns and operates 7 refineries with a total throughput capacity of 658,000 bpd. 93% of their operating income comes from their refining segment. In 2007, Tesoro made $21.9 billion in revenue from its refining and retail segments and $967 million in operating income.^[72]

(1) Latest data is for 2007

[edit] Notes

1. ↑ Valero 2007 10-K financial report, page 26
2. ↑ Morningstar: Valero Financial Statements, February 2009
3. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Statements When oil price
4. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Statements
5. ↑ Investopedia: Valero Top Of The Oil Barrel (VLO), September 2008
6. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Statements When oil price
7. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Statements When oil price
8. ↑ Morningstar.com: Valero Reports 4Q Earnings
9. ↑ Valero-VeraSun deal said good for refiner, ethanol sector, February 2009
10. ↑ VLO 2007 10-K, page 20
11. ↑ [1]
12. ↑ VLO 3Q 2008 10Q, page 4
13. ↑ VLO 3Q 2008 10Q, page 4
14. ↑ VLO 3Q 2008 10Q, page 4
15. ↑ Valero Quarterly Reports
16. ↑ Yahoo! Finance: VLO Company Profile, February 2009
17. ↑ www.valero.com, 2007 Annual Report
18. ↑ FT.com: Valero shuts refinery as slowdown bites, January 2009
19. ↑ FT.com: Valero shuts refinery as slowdown bites, January 2009
20. ↑ VLO 2007 Annual Report
21. ↑ Valero 2008 3Q Financial Report, page 34
22. ↑ Yahoo! finance: Valero 2008 2Q Financial Report
23. ↑ San Antonio Business Journal: Valero seeks to buy stake in Netherlands refinery, May 2009
24. ↑ San Antonio Business Journal: Valero seeks to buy stake in Netherlands refinery, May 2009
25. ↑ San Antonio Business Journal: Valero seeks to buy stake in Netherlands refinery, May 2009
26. ↑ San Antonio Business Journal: Valero seeks to buy stake in Netherlands refinery, May 2009
27. ↑ VLO 2008 3Q Financial Report, page 46
28. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Report
29. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Report, page 34
30. ↑ EIA: Spot Crude Prices, February 2009
31. ↑ EIA: This Week in Petroleum, February 19 2009
32. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Report
33. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Report
34. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Report
35. ↑ EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, February 2009
36. ↑ Reuters.com: Valero Energy Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Annual Results, January 2009
37. ↑ mysanantonio.com: Valero Posts $3.3 Billion Loss in 4Q, January 2009
38. ↑ mysanantonio.com: Valero Posts $3.3 Billion Loss in 4Q, January 2009
39. ↑ Morningstar.com: Valero Reports 4Q Earnings, January 2009
40. ↑ Valero Energy Q1 2009 Earnings, April 2009
41. ↑ Valero Energy Q1 2009 Earnings, April 2009
42. ↑ Valero Energy Q1 2009 Earnings, April 2009
43. ↑ WSJ: Valero Shutting Down Aruba Refinery For Summer, June 2009
44. ↑ WSJ: Valero Shutting Down Aruba Refinery For Summer, June 2009
45. ↑ WSJ: Valero Shutting Down Aruba Refinery For Summer, June 2009
46. ↑ WSJ: Valero Shutting Down Aruba Refinery For Summer, June 2009
47. ↑ WSJ: Valero Shutting Down Aruba Refinery For Summer, June 2009
48. ↑ Forbers.com: Valero's Deep Discount, August 2007
49. ↑ Investopedia: Valero Top Of The Oil Barrel (VLO), September 2008
50. ↑ Investopedia: Valero Top Of The Oil Barrel (VLO), September 2008
51. ↑ Valero 3Q 2008 Financial Report
52. ↑ Investopedia: Valero Top Of The Oil Barrel (VLO), September 2008
53. ↑ Barrons: Valero Gets Sweet Profits From Sour Crude, March 2009
54. ↑ Barrons: Valero Gets Sweet Profits From Sour Crude, March 2009
55. ↑ Barrons: Valero Gets Sweet Profits From Sour Crude, March 2009
56. ↑ Barrons: Valero Gets Sweet Profits From Sour Crude, March 2009
57. ↑ Investopedia: Valero Top Of The Oil Barrel (VLO), September 2008
58. ↑ Investopedia: Valero Top Of The Oil Barrel (VLO), September 2008
59. ↑ IstockAnalyst.com : Valero Producing Diesel for Growing World Demand, January 2009
60. ↑ IstockAnalyst.com : Valero Producing Diesel for Growing World Demand, January 2009
61. ↑ The Wall Street Journal: "Refiners Tilt to Diesel Over Gasoline"
62. ↑ IstockAnalyst.com : Valero Producing Diesel for Growing World Demand, January 2009
63. ↑ Financial Times, Ethanol Producers, November 2008
64. ↑ Market Watch: Valero Unit wins 7 plants with $477 million, March 2009
65. ↑ Platts.com: Valero-VeraSun deal said good for refiner, ethanol sector, February 2009
66. ↑ Platts.com: Valero-VeraSun deal said good for refiner, ethanol sector, February 2009
67. ↑ Platts.com: Valero-VeraSun deal said good for refiner, ethanol sector, February 2009
68. ↑ Market Watch: Gustav regains strength to become hurricane, August 2008
69. ↑ Yahoo! Finance: VLO Competitors
70. ↑ Yahoo! finance: HOC
71. ↑ Yahoo! Finance: Sunoco profile
72. ↑ Yahoo! Finance: TSO, Company Profile and Financial Data
73. ↑ E 2007 Annual Report
74. ↑ SUN 2008 10-K, Item 7, Page 35
75. ↑ ^{75.0 75.1} CVX 10-K 2009, Item 1, Page 24
76. ↑ VLO 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page 3
77. ↑ ^{77.0 77.1} XOM 2008 10-K, Item 6, Page 43
78. ↑ RDS’A 2008 20-F, Results, Refining Data
79. ↑ Sinopec Investor Relations, Operational Statistics for 2008
80. ↑ WNR 2008 10-K, Item 7, Page 34
81. ↑ ^{81.0 81.1} COP 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page 16
82. ↑ ^{82.0 82.1} BP 2008 20-F, Item 1, Page 29
83. ↑ Lukoil Investor Relations – Fact Book 2008, Page 15
84. ↑ Conversion factor is 1 BPD = 50 tonnes per year
85. ↑ ^{85.0 85.1 85.2} TOT 2008 20-F, Item 4, Page 36
86. ↑ SUN 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page 1
87. ↑ ^{87.0 87.1} VLO 10-K 2008, Item 1, Page 1
88. ↑ RDS’A 2008 20-F, Results, Manufacturing
89. ↑ Sinopec Refining Overview
90. ↑ WNR 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page 19
91. ↑ Lukoil Investor Relations – Fact Book 2008, Page 16
92. ↑ SUN 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page7
93. ↑ CVX 10-K 2008, Item 1, Page 25
94. ↑ CVX 10-K 2008, Item 1, Page 26
95. ↑ XOM 2008 10-K, Item 2, Page 25
96. ↑ RDS’A 2008 20-F, Results, Marketing
97. ↑ Sinopec 2008 Annual Report, Business Review and Prospects, Page 20
98. ↑ WNR 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page 3
99. ↑ COP 2008 10-K, Item 1, Page 18
100. ↑ BP 2008 20-F, Item 1, Page 30
101. ↑ Lukoil Investor Relations – Fact Book 2008, Page 60