DIS » Topics » Value at Risk (VAR)

This excerpt taken from the DIS 10-K filed Dec 2, 2009.

Value at Risk (VAR)

The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange, and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates, currencies, and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency, and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at fiscal year end. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments, and receivables and accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

VAR on a combined basis decreased to $34 million at October 3, 2009 from $68 million at September 27, 2008. The decrease was primarily due to increased diversification benefits across financial instruments and lower volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates.

 

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Table of Contents

The estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

 

Fiscal Year 2009

   Interest Rate
Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
   Currency
Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
   Equity Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
     Combined  
Portfolio

Year end VAR

     $   24          $   19          $   0          $ 34    

Average VAR

     $ 52          $ 23          $ 1          $ 66    

Highest VAR

     $ 86          $ 33          $ 1          $   100    

Lowest VAR

     $ 24          $ 19          $ 0          $ 34    

Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2008)

     $ 53          $ 24          $ 1          $ 68    

The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of October 3, 2009 and accordingly, has been excluded from the above table.

This excerpt taken from the DIS 8-K filed Feb 3, 2009.

Value at Risk (VAR)

The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange, and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates, currencies, and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency, and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at fiscal year end. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments, and receivables and accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

VAR on a combined basis increased to $79 million at September 27, 2008 from $33 million at September 29, 2007. The increase was primarily due to higher volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates and reduced correlation benefits across financial instruments.

The estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

 

Fiscal Year 2008

   Interest Rate
Sensitive
Financial
Instruments
   Currency
Sensitive
Financial
Instruments
   Equity Sensitive
Financial
Instruments
   Combined
Portfolio

Year end VAR

   $ 53    $ 49    $ 1    $ 79

Average VAR

   $ 40    $ 29    $ 1    $ 51

Highest VAR

   $ 53    $ 49    $ 1    $ 79

Lowest VAR

   $ 34    $ 11    $ 1    $ 33

Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2007)

   $ 26    $ 17    $ 1    $ 33

The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of September 27, 2008 and accordingly, has been excluded from the above table.

 

48


ITEM 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
These excerpts taken from the DIS 10-K filed Nov 20, 2008.

Value at Risk (VAR)

The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange, and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates, currencies, and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency, and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at fiscal year end. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments, and receivables and accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

VAR on a combined basis increased to $79 million at September 27, 2008 from $33 million at September 29, 2007. The increase was primarily due to higher volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates and reduced correlation benefits across financial instruments.

The estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

 

Fiscal Year 2008

   Interest Rate
Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
   Currency
Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
   Equity Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
     Combined  
Portfolio

Year end VAR

     $   53          $   49          $   1          $   79    

Average VAR

     $ 40          $ 29          $ 1          $ 51    

Highest VAR

     $ 53          $ 49          $ 1          $ 79    

Lowest VAR

     $ 34          $ 11          $ 1          $ 33    

Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2007)

     $ 26          $ 17          $ 1          $ 33    

The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of September 27, 2008 and accordingly, has been excluded from the above table.

Value at Risk (VAR)

FACE="Times New Roman" SIZE="2">The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange, and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were
made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates,
currencies, and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency, and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at
fiscal year end. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments, and receivables and
accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

SIZE="2">The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

STYLE="margin-top:12px;margin-bottom:0px; text-indent:5%">VAR on a combined basis increased to $79 million at September 27, 2008 from $33 million at September 29, 2007. The increase was primarily due
to higher volatility of interest rates and foreign exchange rates and reduced correlation benefits across financial instruments.

The
estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

 


































































































Fiscal Year 2008

  Interest Rate
Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
  Currency
Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
  Equity Sensitive
Financial
  Instruments  
    Combined  
Portfolio

Year end VAR

    $  53        $  49        $  1        $  79    

Average VAR

    $40        $29        $1        $51    

Highest VAR

    $53        $49        $1        $79    

Lowest VAR

    $34        $11        $1        $33    

Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2007)

    $26        $17        $1        $33    

The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of September 27, 2008 and
accordingly, has been excluded from the above table.

This excerpt taken from the DIS 10-K filed Nov 21, 2007.

Value at Risk (VAR)

The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange, and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates, currencies, and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency, and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at fiscal 2007 year end. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments, and receivables and accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

VAR on a combined basis increased to $33 million at September 29, 2007 from $21 million at September 30, 2006. The increase was primarily due to higher volatility and a higher market value of currency-sensitive instruments.

The estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

 

Fiscal Year 2007

  

Interest Rate

Sensitive

Financial

  Instruments  

  

Currency

Sensitive

Financial

  Instruments  

  

Equity Sensitive

Financial

  Instruments  

  

  Combined  

Portfolio

Year end VAR

     $   26          $ 17          $ 1          $   33    

Average VAR

     $ 17          $ 14          $ 1          $ 23    

Highest VAR

     $ 26          $ 17          $ 1          $ 33    

Lowest VAR

     $ 12          $ 12          $ 1          $ 18    

Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2006)

     $ 22          $   10          $   1          $ 21    

The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of September 29, 2007. In calculating the VAR it was determined that credit risks are the primary driver for changes in the value of Euro Disney’s debt rather than interest rate risks. Accordingly, we have excluded Euro Disney’s borrowings from the above VAR calculation.

This excerpt taken from the DIS 10-K filed Nov 22, 2006.

Value at Risk (VAR)

The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange, and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates, currencies, and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency, and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at fiscal 2006 year end. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments, and receivables and accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

VAR on a combined basis was $21 million at September 30, 2006 and October 1, 2005.

The estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

 

Fiscal Year 2006                                                 

   Interest Rate
Sensitive
Financial
Instruments
   Currency
Sensitive
Financial
Instruments
   Equity Sensitive
Financial
Instruments
  

Combined

Portfolio

Year end VAR

   $       22    $       10    $       1    $       21

Average VAR

   $ 19    $ 13    $ 0    $ 22

Highest VAR

   $ 22    $ 15    $ 1    $ 24

Lowest VAR

   $ 18    $ 10    $ 0    $ 18

Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2005)

   $ 24    $ 12    $ 1    $ 21

The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of September 30, 2006. In calculating the VAR it was determined that credit risks are the primary driver for changes in the value of Euro Disney’s debt rather than interest rate risks. Accordingly, we have excluded Euro Disney’s borrowings from the above VAR calculation.

This excerpt taken from the DIS 10-K filed Dec 7, 2005.
Value at Risk (VAR)
      The Company utilizes a VAR model to estimate the maximum potential one-day loss in the fair value of its interest rate, foreign exchange and market sensitive equity financial instruments. The VAR model estimates were made assuming normal market conditions and a 95% confidence level. Various modeling techniques can be used in a VAR computation. The Company’s computations are based on the interrelationships between movements in various interest rates, currencies and equity prices (a variance/co-variance technique). These interrelationships were determined by observing interest rate, foreign currency and equity market changes over the preceding quarter for the calculation of VAR amounts at year end fiscal 2005. The model includes all of the Company’s debt as well as all interest rate and foreign exchange derivative contracts and market sensitive equity investments. Forecasted transactions, firm commitments and receivables and accounts payable denominated in foreign currencies, which certain of these instruments are intended to hedge, were excluded from the model.

      The VAR model is a risk analysis tool and does not purport to represent actual losses in fair value that will be incurred by the Company, nor does it consider the potential effect of favorable changes in market factors.

-63-


 

      VAR on a combined basis decreased from $31 million at September 30, 2004 to $21 million at October 1, 2005. The majority of the decrease is due to lower volatility and a lower market value of interest rate sensitive instruments.

      The estimated maximum potential one-day loss in fair value, calculated using the VAR model, is as follows (unaudited, in millions):

                                 
Interest Rate Currency
Sensitive Sensitive Equity Sensitive
Financial Financial Financial Combined
Fiscal Year 2005 Instruments Instruments Instruments Portfolio





Year end VAR
  $ 24     $ 12     $ 1     $ 21  
Average VAR
  $ 29     $ 14     $ 1     $ 28  
Highest VAR
  $ 32     $ 16     $ 1     $ 36  
Lowest VAR
  $ 24     $ 12     $ 0     $ 21  
Beginning of year VAR (year end fiscal 2004)
  $ 33     $ 17     $ 0     $ 31  

      The VAR for Euro Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland is immaterial as of October 1, 2005. In calculating the VAR it was determined that credit risks are the primary driver for changes in the value of Euro Disney’s debt rather than interest rate risks. Accordingly, we have excluded Euro Disney’s borrowings from the VAR calculation.

 
ITEM 8.  Financial Statements and Supplementary Data

      See Index to Financial Statements and Supplemental Data on page 73.

 
ITEM 9.  Changes in and Disagreements with Accountants on Accounting and Financial Disclosure

      None.

 
ITEM 9A.  Controls and Procedures

     

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