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Sean Hinton

For a definition of the term "credit crunch," see Credit Crunch (definition). For more information on 2008 fallout within the Financial Industry see 2008 Financial Crisis

The credit crisis of 2007 started in the U.S. subprime mortgage industry. Far from being confined to the residential real estate market, the effects of the subprime collapse spread throughout the U.S. economy and into global markets. The impact has been especially rough on the financial services industry, as many investment banks had a short but extensive history of using mortgage-backed securities (or MBSs) as a way to spread risk and free up additional capital. The failure of the MBS market has shrunk the capital supply available to institutional investors, creating a snowball effect.

For example, the market for auction rate securities failed in February 2008, when Citigroup, UBS, and the other two banks that auction these securities declined to act as bidder of last resort. This refusal, driven by the scope of the market's failure and the banks' own need to minimize risk after widespread MBS write-offs ^[1], negatively impacted the cities, schools, and hospitals that issued these bonds, as well as the companies (including Intuit and Monster Worldwide) that owned them. The freezing of the auction rate securities market is one example of the wide, deep impact of the credit crunch - while its catalyst can be traced to a single source, mortgage investment, its impact cannot be as easily contained.

Who's affected by the credit crunch?

Most Wall Street banks have taken significant hits. Data as of April 14 2008.^[2]

Investment banks and other financial services firms

Several large investment firms have had their stock prices plummet as a result of the subprime bust and credit crunch. While the companies below have suffered the biggest losses as of the first quarter of 2008, firms across the industry have been negatively impacted by the crisis.

• Lehman Brothers Fin SA (LEH) reported its first quarterly loss ever for the second quarter of fiscal 2008, losing over $2.8 billion for the quarter. As of June 24, 2008, Lehman's stock price had fallen over 62% YTD.^[3]
• Merrill Lynch (MER) reported on January 17, 2008, an $8.6 billion net loss from continuing operations due to significant write downs on its subprime investments ^[4].
• Citigroup (C), on January 15, 2008, reported a fourth quarter net loss of $9.83 billion, which included $18.1 billion in pre-tax write downs on its subprime-related assets, the biggest in Wall Street history.^[5]
• UBS AG (UBS) shut down one of its hedge funds in 2007 after it incurred $123 million in subprime-related losses, putting a damper on the firm's profits. UBS reported a $4.4 billion loss on fixed-income securities for the third quarter 2007. UBS currently has exposure to $16.8 billion in subprime mortgage-backed securities and $1.8 billion in collateralized debt obligations.^[6]

Total Fed loans to depository institutions, Jan 1919-June 2008^[7]

• Morgan Stanley (MS) also purchased a nonprime mortgage lender, Saxon Capital, in 2006. On December 19, 2007, Morgan Stanley reported a $9.4 billion write down on its subprime assets, which was much greater than the $3.7 billion analysts were expecting.^[8][9]
• Blackstone Group (BX), a publicly traded private equity firm, has been hit by the credit crunch. As of June 16, Blackstone's stock price had declined 48% since its IPO in June 2007.^[10] Blackstone posted a net loss of $251 million for the first quarter of 2008, compared to its $1.13 billion profit in the first quarter of 2007.

Since investment banks play such a significant role in the U.S. credit markets, the Federal Reserve established the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (through which it lends money to I-banks at its discount rate) in March 2008; on July 8, 2008, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed would consider leaving the PDCF in operation through the end of 2008.^[11] Wall Street banks borrowed as much as $38 billion per day in the first week of April 2008, though borrowing had tapered off to nothing as of the end of August; commercial banks, however, continued to borrow an average of $18.47 billion in the week ending August 27, 2008.^[12]

Home construction and improvement companies

• Toll Brothers (TOL), Lennar (LEN), Pulte Homes (PHM), and D.R. Horton (DHI) are all companies involved in the construction of new homes. With falling real estate prices and a large supply of homes already on the market, these companies have been hurt by the credit crunch.

Mortgage lenders

• Countrywide Financial (CFC) is the largest mortgage originator in the U.S., making it highly exposed to both the housing and credit markets. Bank of America (BAC) announced its intention to buy Countrywide In January 2008, though the deal isn't expected to close until the third quarter of 2008.^[13]
• Wells Fargo (WFC) and Washington Mutual (WM) are the second- and third-largest mortgage originators in the U.S., respectively. Wells Fargo and WaMu do, however, have more diverse business models than Countrywide, giving them some buffer against poor performance in the mortgage industry.

Monoline bond insurers

• MBIA (MBI) and Ambac Financial Group (ABK) insure bonds and other forms of debt. These companies invested in collateralized debt obligations themselves, losing money as CDO values declined. MBIA reported a full-year 2007 net loss of $1.92 billion and a first-quarter 2008 net loss of $2.41 billion;^[14] for Ambac, these figures were $3.25 billion and $1.66 billion, respectively.^[15]

Collection agencies

• Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA) and Asset Acceptance Capital (AACC) are two of the only publicly traded "debt recovery" firms in the U.S. PRAA's cash collections in the first quarter of 2008 rose 18% over the first quarter of 2007.^[16] Cash collections were up 4.6% at AACC to over $100 million in the first quarter of 2008, showing the credit crunch's impact on borrowers ability to repay their debt obligations.^[17]

Companies that depend on credit to finance growth

The impact of the credit crunch isn't limited to a few specific sectors of the economy. Any firm, in any industry, that needs to borrow money to continue growing is hurt by the credit crunch. Even more, the industries that are directly impacted can affect other, secondary industries that may not be connected to the credit markets at all. Some (less obvious) examples of companies that have been hit by the credit crunch in one way or another are:

• Home Depot (HD)
• Sprint Nextel (S)
• Toyota Motor (TM)
• FedEx (FDX)

What caused the credit crunch?

Subprime mortgage bust

Many of the subprime mortgages originated since 2000 had adjustable interest rates as opposed to fixed rates. In 2006, an estimated 80% of all subprime loans originated featured "teaser" rates as low as 1% during the introductory period.^[18] When the introductory periods ended, borrowers found themselves with monthly payments that were much higher, often substantially so. One 2007 study stated that monthly payments for 60% of all adjustable-rate mortgages made since 2004 will jump by 25% or more.^[19] With rising payments, more than 24% of subprime loans were either delinquent or in foreclosure by February 2008.^[20] Securities backed by these mortgages, in turn, began to fall in value, hitting investors and the banks that package mortgages into securities.

Mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations

One of the main features of the subprime boom was investment banks' extensive use of mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, and other complex financial instruments to spread risk and free up additional capital to be lent out. Typically, subprime debt was too risky to be considered investment-grade, but the advent of MBSs and CDOs let banks spread the losses from any single default over a large pool of mortgages, presumably minimizing the risk of significant losses for investors. The perception of security, along with the potential for higher returns than on prime-backed securities, made these subprime MBSs very popular among investors, including hedge funds, investment banks, and asset management firms. As subprime defaults rose and banks began posting large losses on subprime-related securities, they had to cut back on their other investments to build up capital and cover the losses. Since financial services firms bankroll much of the economic growth in the U.S., this prevented companies in nearly every industry from obtaining the money they needed to keep growing, spreading the impact of banks' credit losses throughout the economy.

Falling home prices

As the number of subprime defaults rose, so did the number of homes repossessed. Combined with a general slowdown in the U.S. housing market, this led to an increase in the available supply of homes on the market, pushing down prices. As of April 2008, there was a 10.7-month supply of single-family homes on the market, which helped explain the 14.1% drop in existing home prices during the first quarter of 2008 from the same period in 2007.^[21][22] Before this, millions of homeowners had borrowed against the soaring value of their homes, which boosted overall consumer spending; in fact, such "home equity withdrawals" were estimated to account for more than 9% of the U.S.'s total disposable income in 2006.^[23] When the value of their homes started to fall, however, people found themselves unable to keep pulling money out of their homes, resulting in an estimated $350 billion decrease in consumer spending in 2007 from the previous year.^[24] Since consumer spending makes up about 70% of all economic activity in the U.S., even slight changes can have a huge impact on the country as a whole.

References

1. ↑ Wikipedia:Auction rate security
2. ↑ Wall Street Journal analysis and data, company reports
3. ↑ LEH - Google Finance
4. ↑ Merrill Lynch 4Q07 Earnings Release
5. ↑ Citi Reports Fourth Quarter Net Loss of $9.83 Billion, Loss Per Share of $1.99
6. ↑ UBS says sub-prime exposure 16.8 bln usd, CDO exposure at 1.8 bln usd - Forbes.com
7. ↑ St. Louis Fed - "BORROW" data series
8. ↑ Morgan Stanley Posts Loss, Sells Stake to China - Bloomberg
9. ↑ Morgan Stanley sees $3.7 billion subprime hit - Reuters.com
10. ↑ The Blackstone Group - Google Finance
11. ↑ Fed may extend Wall Street lending | Reuters
12. ↑ Banks borrow more from Fed; Wall Street takes pass - International Herald Tribune
13. ↑ Bank of America to acquire Countrywide - Mortgage Mess - MSNBC.com
14. ↑ Google Finance - MBI
15. ↑ Google Finance - ABK
16. ↑ Portfolio Recovery Associates | Press Releases
17. ↑ Asset Acceptance - Press Release
18. ↑ Cracks in the facade - Economist.com
19. ↑ Cracks in the facade - Economist.com
20. ↑ Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans - New York Times
21. ↑ Housing Supply Declined in May - WSJ.com
22. ↑ Drop in Home Prices Accelerates to 14.1% - WSJ.com
23. ↑ Homeowners Feel the Pinch of Lost Equity - New York Times
24. ↑ Homeowners Feel the Pinch of Lost Equity