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Boeing Company (BA)

Stock (Manufacturing Industry, Transportation Industry, Aircraft Manufacturers Industry, Aerospace & Defense Industry, Aerospace Defense Contractors Industry)

Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) is the world's largest aerospace and defense company. iIn 1997, it merged with McDonnell Douglas. The company operates in over 90 countries and claims the title of America's largest exporter. Its has three divisions: commercial airplanes (50.3% of revenue), integrated defense systems (48.3%), and a small aircraft leasing subsidiary (1.2%). In 2007, the firm generated $66.4 billion in revenue and $4.1 billion in net income.

Of the three divisions, the most prominent is the commercial airplane section. This division faces intense competition from EADS NV (EADSY) and its Airbus line of planes. However, the introduction of the 787 Dreamliner may tip the scales in Boeing's favor. This new plane has a lightweight composite material design which Boeing claims will give it a 20% increase in fuel efficiency.[1] This is particularly attractive to airlines that are struggling with record high oil prices. For example, in 1Q08) United attributed an average of nearly 60% of total operating expenses to fuel. Given the soaring price of oil futures over $130 a barrel, the airline industry must increase its focus on cutting costs as it operates under historically low margins. Boeing's order book for the Dreamliner has seen its backlog rise to unprecedented levels: $349 billion.[2]

Boeing's less visible Integrated Defense Systems (IDS) division has shown significant growth recently and now earns just under half of the company's revenues. Boeing's innovation in this sector has allowed it to win numerous orders from defense programs. However, IDS still receives a hefty 84% of its earnings from the US Department of Defense. This reliance exposes it to the Department's variable budget and spending patterns. The Iraq War has caused a boom on this side of Boeing's operations, but a change in foreign policy may cause a slowdown in defense spending. In addition, Boeing faces competition from other firms in this sector - in February 2007, the U.S. Air Force awarded a controversial $35 billion air refueling tanker contract to rival EADS NV (EADSY) that was widely expected to go to Boeing. In response, Boeing filed a formal appeal against the deal with the Government Accountability Office that could delay production by over a year.[3]

Contents

[edit] Business and History

Now headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, Boeing was originally founded in the 1910s in Seattle, Washington. After a series of mergers and splits (in which today's United Airlines was spun out, among others), Boeing emerged in the fifties as the premier US aircraft manufacturer, participating heavily in government air defense projects. It was not until 1958 that Boeing began delivery of its first commercial airplanes, the segment for which it is most commonly recognized today. Although Boeing is today perceived primarily a maker of commercial planes, for much of its history, the company's involvement in space and defense programs has actually overshadowed its commercial airplanes manufacturing.

Boeing NASA Systems, based in Houston, is a major contributor to the space program. Boeing is responsible for building a lot of robotic equipment and hardware that NASA has used in its space shuttle and International space station.

Boeing's 2007 revenues rose 8 percent to $66.4 billion on higher commercial airplane deliveries and defense business growth. Furthermore, net income grew 84 percent to $4.1 billion and backlog expanded to a record level of $346 billion. Net Income is growing even faster than revenue as management has cut costs in 2007 and 1st quarter 2008.

[edit] Divisions

[edit] Commercial Airplanes

Commercial airplane sales account for 50.3% of company revenues - $33.4 billion in 2007. Here is a glimpse at the actual selling and order book as of December 31, 2007:

Airplane Models
Model Seating Capacity Cumulative Deliveries 2007 Deliveries Unfilled Orders
737 100-215 2,466 330 2,076
747 400-500 1,396 16 125
767 181-304 959 12 52
777 301-368 687 83 357
787 Dreamliner 200-300 0 0 817[4]

[edit] The 787 Dreamliner

The 787 has had the most successful launch of any new commercial airplane in Boeing history. Boeing just reported having 892 firm orders from 57 different customers.[5] The Dreamliner's popularity is largely due to its cost efficiency: by replacing traditional materials with carbon-fiber-reinforced plastic (which is stronger than steel and lighter than aluminum), Boeing has created an aircraft that will consume 20% less fuel than predecessor 767. But despite the promise of the 787, challenges still exist. Production delays are common in commercial airplane manufacturing, especially when a large portion of component parts are outsourced. With 75% of the 787's development and production outsourced, costly delays are a high risk. This heavy outsourcing led to a strike of about 27,000 Boeing engineers in September 2008, many of whom were involved in the manufacturing of the 787.[6] As a result, the company has stated it will do more of the production of the next 787 model "in-house" in Seattle rather than outsourcing as part of the contract settlement with its engineers that was ratified on November 1, 2008.[6]

Boeing has delayed the launch of the Dreamliner three times. According to the 1Q08 Earnings report, the first flight will be in fourth quarter 2008 and deliveries will begin in third quarter 2009.[7] Boeing continues to address challenges associated with assembly of the first airplanes, including completion of out-of-sequence production work, software integration and parts availability. In a rare piece of good news for the 787 development, GE's custom engine for the Dreamliner has been given an airworthiness certification by the Federal Aviation Association. On June 9th, Boeing announced that the April schedule is being followed and the first flight of the 787 will be in the fourth quarter of 2008, which is about 14 months behind schedule.[8][6]


Boeing vs Airbus (Widebody Jet)
Boeing 777-200 LR Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner Airbus A350-900 XWB
3 Class Passenger Payload 301 301 300
Empty Weight 320,000 lb 276,200 lb 288,141 lb
Empty Weight/Passenger 1036.1 917.6 960.5
Max Payload 141,000 lb 138,800 lb 109,780 lb
Cabin Floor Area 3002 sq ft 3131 sq ft 2828 sq ft[9]

[edit] Integrated Defense Systems

IDS sales account for 48.3% of company revenues - $32.1 billion in 2007. Although revenue slowed down in this sector - and this can primarily be attributed to the unpredictability of government contracts - margins improved. This is a credit to management's targeted cost cutting withing IDS. Here is a glimpse at the breakdown between segments for 2007:

Integrated Defense Systems
2007 Revenue Percentage of IDS YoY Rev Growth 2007 Oper Margin YoY Margin Chagne
Precision Engagement/Mobility Systems 13.7B 42.6% (-3.0%) 11.9% 3.3%
Network & Space Systems 11.7B 36.5% (-2.1%) 7.6% (-0.4%)
Support Systems 6.7B 20.9% 4.8% 13.7% 0.1%
Total 32.1B 100% (-1.1%) 10.7% 1.4%[10]

Notable IDS products include:

  • Fighter Jets (E/A -18G, F/A- 18E/F, F – 15E, F-22A)
  • Rotocraft (CH-64D Apache, CH-47 Chinook, V-22 Osprey)
  • Large Aircraft (C-17, C-32, C-40, KC-767, P-8A
  • Missiles/Bombs (e.g., Harpoon)
  • Satellites
  • Communication Systems (Joint Tactical Radio Station)
  • Space Systems (space shuttles, including Apollo series)
  • Launch Systems (sea and land based launches of satellites into orbit)

[edit] Boeing Capital Corporation

BCC operations only account for 1.2% of company revenues - $815 million for 2007. This segment is a provider of financial solutions for commercial and government airline customers. Basically, BCC owns planes and structures leases for customers to borrow their planes. BCC manages a $6.5 billion portfolio of approximately 350 airplanes.[11] This part of Boeing has seen significant decline because of the amount of older planes being taken out of the airways to make room for newer, more fuel efficient planes.

Boeing Capital Corporation
2006 2007 YoY Change
Revenue $1025M $815M (-20.5%)
Operating Profit $291M $234M (-19.6%)
Portfolio of Customer Debt/Airplanes $8.0B $6.5B (-18.8%)
BCC's Outstanding Debt $5.6B $4.3B (-22.5%)[12]

[edit] Trends and Forces

[edit] Increased risks from heavy outsourcing

Boeing has increased outsourcing from 50% to 70% for many of its products, most notably in production of the 787 (see above). While outsourcing allows Boeing to reduce costs, it also increases the risk of losing production control and intellectual capital. For the 787, this may mean more production delays and mistakes, especially given the use of new materials, manufacturing processes, and the accelerated completion schedule.

Still, major problems are far from guaranteed--major 787 producer Spirit Aerosytems has reported that building with the new materials is easier than expected and has run into minimal problems so far. Boeing has also taken several steps of its own to mitigate the risks of outsourcing, reducing the number of suppliers and stationing employees at supplier factories to supervise and to expedite problem-solving, should the need arise.

[edit] Reliance on parts from external sources

Production outsourcing aside, Boeing is also reliant on external companies for parts sourcing--for example, it receives engines from General Electric Company (GE) and Rolls Royce. Technological advances from these source companies can greatly enhance the profitability and efficiency of Boeing's planes, but a mistake on their parts could translate the burden to Boeing, too. This fear was slightly assuaged as the FAA approved the new GE engine for the 787 Dreamliner on April 1, 2008. [13]

[edit] Efficiency initiatives

In order to increase profitability, Boeing has been aggressively trimming excess. Its 2006 Internal Services Productivity initiative saved US$ 500 million dollars by changing internal operations, ranging from how the company bought office equipment to how it ran plane production. The company's restructuring efforts have also reduced facility square footage, employee number, and supplier number by more than 50%. This was especially apparent in the all important operating margins: 2007 8.7% vs. 2006 6.6%.[14] This shows an increase of almost 1/3 in profitability.

[edit] Dependence on US defense budget

Boeing’s Integrated Defense Systems (IDS) revenues are largely dependent on the US Department of Defense's budget spending, and on Boeing’s ability to win new business from the Department. (Past Defense business Boeing has obtained include technology development for US Secure Border Initiative, new orders for the Apache and Chinook helicopter programs, and the Future Combat System program.)

The IDS division receives 84% of its revenue from the US Department of Defense, and due to strong congressional support for the Defense budget because of the war in Iraq, IDS saw record revenues in 2006. Defense aircraft spending may remain high as well--the average age of an Air Force aircraft is almost 25 years, so demand and support for defense aircraft replacement is hot. This bodes well for Boeing, since the company produces many different kinds of fighter jets (F/A -18, F-15, F-22), tankers (KC-767) and transports (C-17, C-32A) for the US military. However, the Department of Defense's budget does vary according to perceived threat to the US, so reduced levels of global threat could have a negative effect on the budget.

[edit] Downsizing From Loss of U.S. Air Force Contract

After Boeing lost a major GPS satellite contract to Lockheed Martin (LMT) on 12 May 2008, it moved towards downsizing its satellite assembly and integration business. On 21 May, the company announced it would lay off 750 workers at its southern California satellite plants.[15] Boeing blamed the longer duration of these government contracts as a major factor for the downsizing. This means that the risk/reward profile of competing for these contracts is becoming further skewed, and the loss of a contract will have major long term implications on Boeing's operations.

[edit] Risk from shift to Fixed Cost Development

Fixed cost development contracts allocate companies like Boeing a limited amount of money for defense product development that is not subject to change. Since defense companies often spend more money on projects than was initially agreed upon, this puts pressure on the companies. If fixed cost development contracts are indeed adopted by the US Department of Defense, Boeing could suffer.

[edit] China conflict: higher defense spending

With air traffic growth rates of 10% a year, China and its airline companies will obviously be important buyers of Boeing aircraft. But China helps Boeing's profits in another way, too--a major driver of the US Defense budget is the perceived military threat from China. Recent production of the F-22, DDG-1000 destroyer, and the Virginia class submarine has been primarily attributed to the Chinese threat. And should the arms race heat up to a full-blown conflict, Boeing could be sure to reap financial benefits from a clash anticipated to be more expensive than any other.

But with US-China relations normalizing, esclating tensions are not assured. The 2008 presidential election will have much to reveal about the new direction of US foreign policy.

[edit] Exposure to airline industry's overall health

The airline industry is historically cyclical, with periodic downturns and upturns. Terrorist attacks like 9/11 and disease outbreaks like SARS can both have very negative impacts on airline travel, sparking an industry downturn that hurts airlines and manufacturers alike.

[edit] Rising fuel costs reduce airline purchasing power

Fuel expenses are by far the largest operating expenses in the airline industry, representing about 30% of an airline's annual operating expenses on average.[16] As a result, elevating fuel costs reduce profits for airline companies, who may cut down on airplane orders to make ends meet. In 2007, for example, Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)'s fuel expenses increased 10.4% because of higher fuel costs.[17] Additionally, according to the Air Transport Association, airline industry fuel costs are expected to reach $61.2 billion in 2008, a near 50% increase caused by higher fuel prices.[18] Because of higher fuel prices, many airlines have reduced plans for capacity or Available Seat Miles (ASM) expansion, and thus have cut back on purchases of new aircraft. Therefore, Boeing expects its 2009 and 2010 earnings to slow due to declines in new aircraft demand.[19] However, increases in fuel prices have also led to an increase in demand for Boeing's new fuel-efficient Dreamliner.

[edit] Increasing international demand

About two thirds of commercial airplane sales and backlogged orders come from international markets, where Boeing receives 37% of its revenue. (US$ 13.3 billion comes from Asia alone.) Revenues may increase greatly if Boeing can capitalize on these growing international markets, especially in Asia. In particular demand there is Boeing’s 737 jet, the world’s most popular commercial jet and the aircraft of choice for shorter point-to-point routes. With countries like China and Japan experiencing a spike in demands for domestic flights, the 737 could continue to soar.

[edit] Labor Problems Hurt Operations

Boeing has about 154,000 employees in its company, of whom about 37% (almost 60,000) are unionized in various forms. If Boeing does not meet union contracted union specifications about certain employee wages, hours, and working conditions, or if workers decide to raise demands, then massive strikes could result, creating serious problems for Boeing in the future, as it has in the past. This situation has come to a boil in recent weeks as nearly 27,000 machinists voted on Boeing's proposed contract on September 3rd. Boeing is offering the unionized group additional increases of 2-2.5% over the next three years- the union was seeking 9-13%.[20] After two days of emergency sessions, no agreement was reached and the machinists went on strike. This has caused an immediate halt to all production of the 737, 747, 767 and 777. [21] This strike has caused additional delays in the 787 Dreamliner project. Boeing announced on September 30 that they will be delaying delivery to All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines Corp by 14 and 15 months, respectively. [22]

After nearly 57 days off of the job, union leaders reached an agreement with Boeing on November 1, 2008.[2] The new contract protects more than 5,000 factory jobs and ensures that employees will not contribute any additional capital towards their health care plans, while promising pay raises of 15% over the next four years.[2] This number is even greater than the 9-13% union leaders had been seeking. As a result of the settlement, Boeing agreed to produce more of its next model of the 787 in-house.[6] This contract ends a strike that was costing Boeing nearly $100 million in revenues per day.[2] As the global economy slows and airline industry profits evaporate, it is yet to be seen how strong Boeing's order book truly is and how much new business the company will be able to attract. The increased labor costs may put a significant strain on future profitability. Immediately following this settlement, negotiations began with 20,300 unionized engineers whose contract ended on December 1st.[23] In a positive development for Boeing, the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace voted to accept Boeing's offer. Similar to the machinists, this agreement is for four years rather than the standard three and will give Boeing a clearer picture of its labor costs going forward. The engineers were able to secure annual pay increases of 5%, higher pension benefits, increased overtime wages, and a "more input" regarding outsourcing decisions.[24]

[edit] Exposure to materials prices

The most common materials used in Boeing products are plastics, aluminum, titanium, steel, and composites. Traditional commercial airplanes use aluminum as the main building material, but for the 787, nearly the entire frame is being built with composites. The majority of other materials in the 787 are accounted for in the landing gear, engines, wiring, and systems. The price of these materials has a large impact on Boeing's profit margin.

[edit] Competitors

In the commercial airline business, Boeing operates in a duopoly with Airbus. Airbus has been the largest producer of large commercial jetliners for many years, but Boeing has been gaining ground since recent problems at Airbus, especially the 2005-6 massive production delay for the A380. The delay gave Boeing a large advantage in the market for wide body aircrafts, which include Boeing's successful 747, 777, and 787 models. Although the Boeing has pushed back the first flight and delivery of the 787, the Airbus 380 delays have been far more substantial.

When a frustrated FedEx canceled A380 orders in 2006 and bought Boeing 777 freighters instead, Boeing found that its market share in long-haul freighters increased significantly. Dominance of the freighter industry is key, since it is growing faster than passenger travel. Boeing received 148 freighter orders between 2005 and 2006--many times Airbus' meager 17 orders.

Still, even with Airbus' problems, the race is far from over, and competition remains intense between the two companies. In February 2007, the U.S. Air Force awarded a controversial $35 billion air refueling tanker contract to rival Northrop Grumman (NOC) that was widely expected to go to Boeing. During March of 2007, Boeing had filed a formal appeal against the deal with the Government Accountability Office. In June of 2008, the GAO sustained Boeing's appeal against the Air Force, and effectively reopened the contract for bidding.[25] As of August, Boeing is currently requesting an extension past the October 1st deadline in order to alter its design to meet the government's new specifications.[26]


Company Comparison 2007
Company Revenue (in $millions) YoY Growth Backlog (in $millions) YoY Growth Deliveries YoY Growth
Boeing (commercial airplane division) 33,386 17.3% 255,176 80.9% 441 10.8%
EADS - Airbus 37,319 0.1% 291,116 41.1% 453 4.4%[27][28]
                        NOTE: Airbus numbers converted from Euros to Dollars at Dec 31, 2007 Exchange Rate (1.458 $/E)


Orders
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989
Airbus 395 1341 824 1111 370 284 300 375 520 476 556 460 326 106 125 38 136 101 404 421
Boeing 346 1413 1044 1002 272 239 251 314 588 355 606 543 708 441 125 236 266 273 533 716
Sources 2008: Airbus orders until March 31: http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/orders_and_deliveries/
Boeing orders until April 22. http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm
Deliveries
2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 Sum
Airbus 123 453 434 378 320 305 303 325 311 294 229 182 126 124 123 138 157 163 95 105 4688
Boeing 115 441 398 290 285 281 381 527 491 620 563 375 271 256 312 409 572 606 527 402 8122
Sources 2008: Airbus deliveries until March 31: http://www.airbus.com/en/corporate/orders_and_deliveries/
Boeing deliveries until March 31. http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm?content=displaystandardreport.cfm&optReportType=CurYrDelv
[29]
Narrowbody Backlog and Market Share
Company 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ Total
Boeing Backlog 250 377 305 242 127 92 1,393
Boeing Market Share 46% 49% 44% 46% 36% 36% 44%
Airbus Backlog 288 390 393 286 221 162 1,740
Airbus Market Share 54% 51% 56% 54% 64% 64% 56%


Widebody Backlog and Market Share
Company 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ Total
Boeing Backlog 89 133 177 193 152 177 921
Boeing Market Share 56% 59% 67% 67% 76% 45% 60%
Airbus Backlog 70 93 88 96 47 217 611
Airbus Market Share 44% 41% 33% 33% 24% 55% 40%



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    [edit] References

    1. Forbes
    2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 "Machinists ratify Boeing pact, set to resume work" MercuryNews.com 11/2/2008
    3. http://www.komotv.com/news/boeing/16456831.html
    4. Boeing 2007 10K
    5. Boeing 1st Quarter 08 Earnings Announcement
    6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 "Boeing to boost in-house 787-9 work" seattlepi.com 10/31/2008
    7. Boeing 1st Quarter 08 Earnings Announcement
    8. Reuters