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Although it is the world's fourth largest economy, China is second in energy consumption only to the United States. China is capable of overtaking the U.S. as the world's largest energy consumer by 2010 according to the EIA.[1] China's massive energy needs stem from the numerous infrastructure,transportation, and industrial projects created by the government and private companies, and[2] according to the IEA, China's overall population has the potential of reaching 1.5 billion and require 8,600 terawatts of electricity in 2030.[3]
In order to meet the energy needs of an expanding population and numerous construction projects, China's primary source of energy has come from coal, which is a relatively inexpensive resource in China.[4] However, China's coal power accounts for 80% of greenhouse gas emissions produced in the country, and is one of the reasons why China is the world's largest producer of carbon dioxide.[5] The country is capable of reducing its reliance on coal power through investments in the development of "cleaner" sources of energy such as nuclear energy, hydroelectric energy, and natural gas, but these require substantial investments from the government and consume numerous natural resources to build. For example, the Three Gorges Dam, which is capable of producing the energy equivalent of 10 Hoover Dams, is the world's largest consumer of dirt, stone, concrete, and steel and cost an estimated $25 billion to build.[6] While Chinese energy companies continue to develop domestic energy supplies, many have invested in the development of foreign oil fields in order to secure future supplies.
Trends and Forces
In the second half of 2010, balancing oil supplies with demand is crucial to the success of Chinese oil companiesDuring the first nine months of 2009, producing just enough oil to meet domestic demand has been difficult for Chinese oil majors.[8] In August 2009, oil demand declined for the first in six months by dropping 5.4% when compared to demand in July. However, both crude imports and refinery throughput increased for the month, leaving Chinese majors like SINOPEC Shangai Petrochemical Company (SNP) and PetroChina Company (PTR) with higher inventory levels. If demand continues to decline, prices have the potential of falling, which reduce the value of inventoried oil.[9] As a result, managing inventory levels, oil exports, and oil imports has the potential of being one of the biggest concerns for Chinese majors. However, the Government's new domestic oil pricing policy is capable of boosting oil demand by creating incentives for high refining volumes.[10] In addition to the government's energy policies, analysts at Nomura expect oil demand to outpace oil supply in the near-long term, which has the potential increasing prices. Several Chinese energy companies postponed projects designed to increase production as a result of the economic recession beginning in 2007. As China's economy recovers, demand for oil is capable of increasing beyond what current production levels can meet.[11] Despite this expected rise in demand, balancing domestic production, exports, and imports has the potential of being vital to Chinese major's efforts to reduce their high inventory levels.[12]
2010 Energy Plan has the potential of benefiting cleaner energy source by raising the financial cost of pollutingThrough a new energy plan outlined by the Chinese government, renewable energy providers in China have the potential of supplying 10% of China’s energy by 2010. The 2010 energy plan is designed to foster the development of clean energy sources like wind, solar, nuclear, and hydro.[13] The Chinese government is trying to diversify its economy away from coal, which accounts for 70% of the country’s energy and is the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Energy sources from other hydrocarbons like oil and gas have the potential of increasing China’s reliance on imports and requiring the country to secure energy sources years in advance.[14] As a result, the plan focuses on developing domestic sources of renewable energy. The methods by which the government plans to boost its clean energy sources include new tariffs from wind energy, subsidies for solar cell producers, and raising power prices. A rise in the cost of power has the potential to increase efficiency and make more-expensive renewable power sources more appealing.[15] However, the Chinese government has not promised to raise power prices by the end of 2009, and has been traditionally slow to adjust energy prices.[16]
China's energy needs are massive and produce many environmental and economic problemsAlthough China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal, the country’s reliance on coal as an inexpensive form of energy has produced several environmental and economic problems. According to a report published by MIT, China contains 13% of the world’s proven reserves, enough coal power to sustain its economic growth for a century. China's proven reserves are massive, but coal-derived power makes up 83% of China’s annual energy consumption.[17] The world average is 40%.[18] According to a report by Greenpeace, the World Wildlife Fund, and The Energy Foundation, China’s dependence on coal as a cheap source of energy has numerous environmental, social, and economic costs.[19] The report, entitled The True Cost of Coal, outlined the impact water pollution, air pollution, and mining accidents had on the Chinese economy.[20] 80% of China’s carbon dioxide emissions come from burning coal.[21] That pollution not only contaminates the water and air in China, but also is the leading cause of death in China; more than a million die each year from pollution-related illnesses.[22] The report estimated that the environmental and social costs associated with the country’s use of coal amounted to RMB1.7 trillion in 2007, approximately 7.1% of China’s GDP for that year.
In response to those studies, Beijing is reforming several of its coal facilities to improve safety, quality and efficiency. The Chinese government also plans to modernize its electric grid and coal transportation railways.[23] Of the country’s $585 billion stimulus package, $14.6 billion has been set aside for the implementation of ultrahigh voltage power networks.[24] However, the government plans to maintain investments of $43.86 billion in 2009 to increase power-generation capacity.[25]
Additionally, the operation and construction of the Three Gorges Dam illustrates the difficulties that arise from major construction projects in China. The Three Gorges Dam, which holds 10 world records, is the world’s biggest dam, power plant, and consumer of dirt, stone, concrete, and steel.[26] With maximum power capacity of 22,500 MW, the Three Gorges Dam is the anchor of the Chinese hydroelectric system, which included 12 hydropower mega-bases on the Yangtze River as of 2007.[27] The construction of the Three Gorges Dam displaced 1.13 million people, and polluted the drinking water in many areas of China.[28] Although major construction on the dam has ended, pollution from the dam continues to endanger drinking water.
China's automotive industry is driving force behind gasoline consumptionDespite its reliance on foreign imports, the Chinese oil industry continues to grow in order to provide energy to a developing economy and a growing automobile industry. According to China Daily, it is probable that oil demand will grow by an annual average of 4.5 percent from 2007 to 2010 and an annual average of 3.3 percent from 2010 to 2020.[29] The relatively large increases in oil demand are a result of the rising consumption of refined oil products by automotive drivers in China. Gasoline, kerosene, and diesel are expected to outpace total oil demand over the next 13 years as Chinese automakers produce more cars. In particular, growth in gasoline demand is most affected by China’s expanding automotive industry.[30] While gasoline demand increased 5.7% in 2007, vehicles sales expanded at double-digit rates.[31] As the automotive industry grows, gasoline has the potential to becoming a larger fraction of the total oil demanded by China. In 2006, refined oil demand accounted for 47.1% of total demand, but that percentage is capable of rising to 59.5% by 2020.[32]
Chinese Banks and Oil Companies Secure Future Oil Supplies from Brazil and RussiaIn March 2009, the Chinese government agreed to finance oil-field developments with Brazilian and Russian oil companies in exchange for guaranteed supplies of crude oil.[33] China will loan the Brazilian oil company Petrobras (PBR) $10 billion for the development of its pre-salt fields. In return, Brazil will supply China with 100,000 to 160,000 barrels of crude oil per day.[34] Petrobras (PBR) has reached similar agreements with Unipec, a subsidiary of China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation. Petrobras (PBR) will sell between 60,000 and 100,000 barrels of crude per day to Unipec in exchange for $10 billion in loans from Unipec and the China Development Bank.[35] In March 2009, the China Development Bank signed a $15 billion financing deal with Russia’s government-controlled oil company Rosneftand a $10 billion deal with Transneft in exchange for future oil supplies.[36] In exchange for the loans to Russian oil companies, China will receive oil supplies and a new pipeline spur to China.[37] For China, the deals secure 15 million tons of oil (300,000 bpd) every year for the next 20 years.[38] China has also agreed to loan Venezuela $12 billion in order to develop oil projects that have the potential to increase Venezuelan exports to China from 330,000 bpd to 1 million bpd by 2015.[39]
China’s financing contracts with Petrobras (PBR) and Rosneft are part of the country’s strategy of securing future energy contracts in order to meet the country’s rising demand for energy. From its contracts with Brazil, Chinese oil companies will be able to purchase up to 320,000 barrels of crude oil a day.[40] However, abroad operations expose Chinese companies to political risk and instability.
Natural gas, renewable energy sources, and nuclear energy require government spending on infrastructure to become stable sources of energyIn addition to being the world leader in coal consumption, China is also emits more greenhouse gases than any other country in the world. While coal-derived power accounts for 80% of the greenhouse gases China emits, the government’s economic stimulus package has the potential to improve the capacity of China’s renewable energy sector and reduce the county's carbon emissions.[41] According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the subsidies are part of China’s plan to increase China’s usage of renewable energy to 10% by 2010 from 7.5% in 2005 and to increase solar-power capacity from 70,000 kilowatts to 300,000 kilowatts by 2010.[42]
For China, nuclear power and natural gas offer alternative power sources to coal.China’s uses nuclear plants to supply power to areas in which coal is expensive to transport.[43] Nuclear power plants are primarily located in coastal and rural areas located far away from coalfields. As a result, the Chinese government has plans to increase the amount of power the country generates from nuclear plants, which was 8.6 Gwe as of April 2009.[44] The National Development and Reform Commission wants to increase China’s nuclear power capacity 10-fold to 160 Gwe by 2030.[45] However, the country’s nuclear plans require a substantial increase in the efficiency of its current power plants as well as improved nuclear technology.[46] Additionally, the Chinese government’s plans necessitate the government working with various local governments, which can be inefficient and corrupt.[47]
The Chinese government considers natural gas both an environmentally safer fuel than coal and a stable source of energy.[48] For that reason, China’s Ministry of Science and Technology predicts that natural gas consumption in China has the potential of growing at a rate of 15 percent annually from 2009 to 2030 and reaching 200 billion cubic meters by 2020.[49] However, rapid increases in natural gas consumption have the potential to cause supply gaps and force China to rely on natural gas imports. In order to prevent a supply shortage, the government has plans to replace outdated infrastructure and build additional pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities.[50] Between 2002 and 2020, these government investments have the potential of reaching $32.1 billion.[51]
China's renewable energy market has the potential of reaching $1 trillionIn September 2009, a collection of Western companies reported that China's renewable energy market has the potential of generating annual revenue between $500 billion to $1 trillion.[53] The China Greentech Report 2009 outlined 300 clean energy services that are capable of opening in China if the Country's renewable energy market continues to grow. In 2009, the Chinese government predicted that the country has the potential of using clean sources of energy to provide 20% of its annual energy consumption and has provided subsidies and contracts to solar, wind and hydroelectricity companies.[54] But, because wind, solar, and water are not as financially viable sources of energy relative to oil and coal, manufacturers of clean technologically have required government support and subsidies.[55] The report acknowledges that the support of government and corporate policy makers has the potential of being vital to the future success of renewable energy sources in China.[56]
Companies Affected by China's Energy Needs
Key Chinese PlayersChina National Petroleum Corporation: China National Petroleum Corporation is a state-owned integrated oil and gas company with proved oil reserves of 3.7 billion barrels.[57] In 2007, CNPC produced 172 million tons of crude oil and 114.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas.[58] The company also processes crude oil into refined petro-products that can be used as fuel.[59] In 2007, CNPC produced 121. 73 million metric tons of crude oil domestically and refined 76.81 million metric tons of crude oil.[60] CNPC transports its crude oil, natural gas, and refined products through the company’s 39,316 kilometers of pipeline, railroads, and third-party pipeline systems. CNPC also operates as an engineering and construction company, an oilfield services provider, and a petroleum equipment manufacturer.[61] CNPC is the parent company of PetroChina Company (PTR).
Sinopec ( China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation): Sinopec is a state-owned integrated energy and chemical company in the People’s Republic of China.[62] In 2007, the company’s exploration and production segment sold 38.85 million tons of crude oil and 6.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas.[63] Through its refining segment, the company processed 3.1 million barrels of crude per day. Sinopec also produces various chemical products.[64]
China National Offshore Oil Corporation: CNOOC is a producer of offshore crude oil and natural gas as well as an independent exploration and production company.[65] CNOOC has offshore production areas in Bohai Bay, western South China Sea, eastern South China Sea, East China Sea, and offshore of Indonesia.[66] The company owned net proved reserves of approximately 2.6 billion barrels of oil as of December 31, 2007. Daily production in 2007 was 469, 407 barrels of oil.[67]
China Shenhua Energy Co.: Shenhua is an integrated coal-based energy company that engages in the production, processing, transportation, and sale of coal and thermal coal products.[68] With respect to proved coal reserves, it is the second largest publicly traded coal company in the world.[69] Shenhua had recoverable coal reserves of 11.482 billion ton as of December 31, 2007.[70] It transports its coal products all-over China through a network of ports and dedicated rail lines.[71] As of December 31,2007, Shenhua controlled and operated 13 coal-fired power plants with total installed capacity of 15,091megawatts.[72]
China Natural Gas, Inc. (CHNG): China Natural Gas provides natural gas for industrial, commercial and residential use as well as Compressed Natural Gas for vehicular fuel in primarily in the Xi'an area.[73] The company distributes natural gas through a network of approximately 120 kilometers of high-pressure pipelines.[74] China Natural Gas also owns 35 CNG fuel stations in China as of December 31, 2008.[75]
Foreign Companies Affected by a Rising Demand for Energy in ChinaOil and Gas exporters:' Due to growing oil demand, China’s oil and gas imports have grown drastically. China became a net importer of oil during the 1990s, and, in 2007, imported oil accounted for 47% of the country’s total oil consumption.[76] While China’s crude oil production increased 1.6% in 2007, imports rose by 12.4%.[77] Of those imports, approximately 50% come from countries in the Middle East, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia.[78] China’s “oil” relationship with Gulf Coast countries has encouraged those countries to invest in China’s growing oil industry; in 2006, Gulf states invested $20 billion in China’s oil industry.[79] In 2006, trade between those states and China totaled $135 billion.[80] China also needs natural gas. In June 2009, Russia agreed to supply China with natural gas beginning in 2011 in a deal that has the potential of reaching $100 billion.[81]
The economic crisis beginning in 2007 has also impacted the amount of oil that China imports. In 2008, China imported 14.71 million tons of oil, an increase of 107.4% year over year.[82]
Coal Exporters: While 13% of the world's coal reserves are located in China, the country has the potential of being a net coal importer of 10 to 20 million tons of coal in 2009 due to lagging production and transportation systems and higher domestic prices.[83] In March 2009, China imported 5.72 million tonnes of coal in March, up 37.4% year on year.[84] With domestic demand for coal-derived power outpacing domestic supply, lower international prices make coal imports more attractive for the Chinese government.[85] Rising coal imports has the potential of benefiting coal miners located in the pacific region, especially Australian coal companies.[86]
Nuclear Companies and Uranium Suppliers: In 2007, China announced that it would spend $50 billion to build 32 nuclear plants by 2020. The nuclear construction project announced in 2007 is one of the reasons some analysts argue that China has the potential of building 300 nuclear plants between 2000 and 2050.[87] In 2007, China signed a multibillion dollar deal with Toshiba's Westinghouse Electric Co. and the Shaw Group to build four nuclear plants beginning in 2009.[88] In 2007, the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao traveled to Australia and Niger in order to secure contracts for uranium.[89]
Renewable Energy Companies: China's government spending and subsidies have the potential of benefiting producers of renewable energy. While 8% of China energy came from renewable sources in 2009, the government plans to increase that to 15% by 2020. In order to accomplish that, China has created legislation and financial incentives for electric companies to use clean sources of energy.[90] China passed a law in 2005 that gives fixed rate tariffs and carbon credits to renewable energy companies. In 2008, China's $585 billion stimulus package devoted $366 million to subsidize the construction of solar energy panels by Chinese solar companies and $600 million to wind and nuclear power companies.[91] Since 2005, China's wind capacity has doubled every year.[92]
The Transportation Industry: China depends on rail, air, and marine transportation companies to transport its coal and oil across the country.[93] In 2008, China began devoting more of its railway capacity to transport coal in order to avoid electricity shortfalls.[94] Industry reports indicated that 343.85 million tonnes of power-coal were supplied in the first half of 2008, an increase of 15.6 percent year on year. China also relies on foreign companies to transport oil and coal supplies from overseas.[95]
Domestic producers of Oil: When global oil prices increased rapidly during the first half of 2008, domestic prices remained capped at a low level. To minimize losses, Chinese refineries cut or stopped production. Those production cuts led to smaller locally-produced supplies of refined oil products, and higher supplies levels of foreign-produced oil.[96]
Oilfield Services and Engineering Companies: The global oil-field services and engineering service market has grown in response to China's increasing oil and natural gas production. While the engineering and energy services market in China is dominated by domestic companies like PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, the country's growing energy production has the potential of creating the need for foreign companies to play a larger role.
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