Deflation

RECENT NEWS
BBC News  Sep 21  Comment 
The US Treasury Secretary urges eurozone countries to "boost demand" in order to reduce unemployment and avoid deflation.
SeekingAlpha  Sep 20  Comment 
By Joe The Investor: The global bond market has surpassed 100 trillion dollars, and the ECB has reduced interest rates into negative territory. What is the common motivation behind these decisions? They are all being done to reduce the threat of...
Financial Times  Sep 18  Comment 
Europe’s largest economy is seeing signs of deflation with companies under pricing pressures but economists are divided whether this will take hold
Financial Times  Sep 18  Comment 
The Swiss National Bank maintains its 1.20 floor against the euro and pledges to do what is necessary to ward off the threat of deflation
Financial Times  Sep 18  Comment 
The need for action against eurozone deflation threats has forced out the boundaries of financial economics
Clusterstock  Sep 17  Comment 
If you weren't already convinced about what a nightmare deflation would be for the Eurozone, credit ratings agency Fitch has a grim report out, showing the sort of issues the struggling bloc could be hit by. "A classic debt deflation feedback...
newratings.com  Sep 16  Comment 
VIENNA (dpa-AFX) - The euro area growth outlook has weakened amid rising geopolitical tensions and the central bank stands ready to take appropriate action if needed to thwart any threat of deflation, European Central Bank Governing Council member...




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Deflation happens when prices of goods and services are falling in an economy. It is the opposite of inflation.

Causes of deflation: In mainstream economics, deflation may be caused by a combination of the supply and demand for goods and the supply and demand for money, specifically the supply of money going down and the supply of goods going up.

From a monetarist perspective deflation is caused primarily by a reduction in the velocity of money and/or the amount of money supply per person.

In modern credit-based economies, a deflationary spiral may be caused by the (central bank) initiating higher interest rates (i.e., to 'control' inflation), thereby possibly popping an asset bubble or the collapse of a command economy which has been run at a higher level of production than it could actually support.

Effects of deflation: Deflation increases sales and economic activity by making essentials (food, housing, fuel etc.) which cannot be delayed, more affordable to struggling consumers, thereby reducing severity and duration of recession.

In more recent economic thinking, deflation is related to risk: where the risk-adjusted return of assets drops to negative, investors and buyers will hoard currency rather than invest it, even in the most solid of securities. This can produce the theoretical condition, much debated as to its practical possibility, of a liquidity trap.

Deflation is, however, the natural condition of hard currency economies when the rate of increase in the supply of money is not maintained at a rate commensurate to positive population (and general economic) growth. When this happens, the available amount of hard currency per person falls, in effect making money more scarce; and consequently, the purchasing power of each unit of currency increases. The late 19th century provides an example of sustained deflation combined with economic development under these conditions.

Counteracting deflation: Until the 1930s, it was commonly believed by economists that deflation would cure itself. As prices decreased, demand would naturally increase and the economic system would correct itself without outside intervention.

This view was challenged in the 1930s during the Great Depression. Keynesian economists argued that the economic system was not self-correcting with respect to deflation and that governments and central banks had to take active measures to boost demand through tax cuts or increases in government spending. Reserve requirements from the central bank were high and the central bank could then have effectively increased money supply by simply reducing the reserve requirements and through "open" market operations (e.g., buying treasury bonds for cash) to offset the reduction of money supply in the private sectors due to the collapse of credit (credit is a form of money).

With the rise of monetarist ideas, the focus in fighting deflation was put on expanding demand by lowering interest rates (i.e., reducing the "cost" of money). This view has received a setback in light of the failure of accommodative policies in both Japan and the US to spur demand after stock market shocks in the early 1990s and in 2000 - 2002, respectively. Economists now worry about the (inflationary) impact of monetary policies on asset prices. Sustained low real rates can be the direct cause of higher asset prices and excessive debt accumulation. Therefore lowering rates may prove only a temporary palliative, leading to the aggravation of an eventual future debt deflation crisis.

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